Opinion & Analysis
Here’s who should be the four U.S. Ryder Cup captain’s picks based on analytics
After the PGA Championship, the U.S. Ryder Cup team solidified 8 of its 12 players on the team. Now, captain Jim Furyk will have to decide who the other 4 players will be to join the team. In this day and age of advanced data analytics, it is imperative for the U.S. team to utilize an analytical approach. The European team has used advanced analytics in recent Ryder Cups, and they now field one of the best European squads of all time. Any advantage that the Europeans have that the U.S. team can counter would behoove Furyk and his chances of being a winning Ryder Cup captain.
Normally, captains have sought out players that have played well right before the Ryder Cup. This is a sound strategy. My statistical research on the subject is that most players reach peak performance for about four events in a row. Then their performance inevitably dips to a degree before eventually they hit peak performance, again.
The golden rule is that 80 percent of a player’s earnings in a season come in about 20 percent of the events they play in. Thus, if a player earns $2 million and plays 25 events in a season there’s a good likelihood that he earned $1.6 million of that in just 5 events.
These trends show that picking a hot player is fairly important. However, the issue is that Furyk has to make 3 of the picks by September 3rd and the last pick by September 9th and the Ryder Cup starts on September 28th. Thus, it’s very plausible that a player who is picked because they are playing great golf may cool down a bit by the time the Ryder Cup is being played. Therefore, finding a player with a hot hand is not quite what it is cracked up to be. But, I would recommend staying away from players that are playing miserably. History has shown that a hot player that is selected is more likely to perform better at the Ryder Cup than the cold player that gets selected.
There are some simple statistical rules to follow for optimal picks:
- Seek out quality performers around the green as it helps most in the Foursome (alternate shot) and individual match play format.
- You want birdie makers and quality performers on each of the holes (par-3’s, par-4’s and par-5’s) for the Fourball (best score) format.
- Ryder Cup experience doesn’t mean anything if the player is a poor Ryder Cup performer.
- All things being equal, take the younger player.
- Lean towards the player who fits into both Fourball and Foursome formats over the slightly better player that only fits well into one format.
A good way to start to determine what picks you need is to understand your current team. Here are the rankings in key metrics for the top-8 players on the U.S. team (rankings based out of 205 players):
The top-8 players compile a good driving team that drives the ball effectively thru hitting the ball a long ways rather than being deadly accurate off the tee. One of the best attributes the top-8 has is that they are a very good Short Game team (median ranking of 40.5). They are also pretty good from the Red Zon (175-225 yards), but are better from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards).
The top-8 has dominated par-4’s (median ranking of 11.5) and par-5’s (median ranking of 20) while being good on the par-3’s (median ranking of 44.5). They also make a lot of birdies (median ranking 27th).
It should also be noted that Brooks Koepka’s data could probably be thrown out since it was skewed by him coming off an injury and he is clearly a different and much improved player in recent months. Koepka has typically been one of the better putters on Tour and a pretty good Red Zone performer.
The potential issues I see is that they do not hit a lot of fairways and have some players with issues hitting shots from the rough which is a bad combination in the Foursome format. Also, Webb Simpson currently stands as their weakest link on the team as he has not played that well in recent months and they will likely need to figure out a way to work around him if his performance doesn’t improve between now and the Ryder Cup.
Here are the picks I would recommend making at this point:
Tiger Woods
This is clearly the easiest pick to make even though Tiger’s Ryder Cup record has not been exactly stellar. Forget about Tiger being arguably the greatest player of all time, his performance has clearly indicated that he deserves to be on this Ryder Cup team. Furthermore, he’s statistically a quality fit in either the Fourball or Foursome format. The only issue I see is that given his age and his back issues, it would be wise to use him in no more than 3 matches in the first two days and even that may be too much for him. But, I would love to see him paired in the Foursome format with a player who hits fairways and can play well from the rough for those drives that Tiger struggles with.
Tony Finau
Finau has had 8 top-10 finishes and 2 second place finishes this season. He’s a nice looking fit at the Ryder Cup because he’s a great fit in the Fourball format and a pretty good fit in the Foursome format. In fact, my simulations find that he and Tiger would be a good fit together in either format.
Bryson DeChambeau
Again, versatility and youth play a key role in his selection. You never quite know who is going to show up at the Ryder Cup and who may get injured. Thus, there’s always a need for a player that fits both formats and can play in ever match if needed. The simulations I’ve ran really like a Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau pairing.
Patrick Cantlay
This was a difficult choice between Cantlay, Mickelson and Zach Johnson. The pros for Mickelson is that he has played well in recent Ryder Cups and certainly has the experience. He’s also not a bad fit in the Foursome format and a really good fit in the Fourball format if paired with another birdie making machine that avoids bogeys and plays well on par-3’s (i.e. Koepka, Fowler and Tiger). Zach has been a quality Ryder Cup performer as well and is best suited for the Foursome format. However, he’s not such a bad fit in the Fourball format. He doesn’t hit it long, but he does make birdies (43rd in Adjusted Birdie Percentage).
From a pure numbers point of view, my simulations favor Cantlay. I wish he was better from the Red Zone and from the rough, but he’s still a quality candidate in both formats and has youth on his side. For sentimental reasons, I would pick Mickelson because the simulations such as him and Tiger in the Fourball format, and this will likely be the last time that the two can ever be paired together. The numbers don’t care about emotions, though. And that’s why Cantlay is the pick for now. It would just be wise to wait until September 9th to make the final pick.
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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Paul
Aug 25, 2018 at 9:00 pm
Woods has no business being on the team.
Speedy
Aug 21, 2018 at 1:42 pm
TW, XS, KUCHAR, KISNER.
Chris
Aug 20, 2018 at 11:13 pm
1. Tiger 2. Kisner 3. Phil 4. Kuchar and Phil is iffy I know he’s a staple and people love him but he’s not playing well but he’s a team guy and his short game helps in these situations. At some point people will have to get used to tiger and Phil not being on these teams though.
Lance Kulman
Aug 20, 2018 at 7:16 pm
I would go off the reservation a bit, Tiger, Cantalay, sneadaker(all on Sep 3rd), then shock the world with Andrew Putman(won the stabbleford tourney) and has shown the ability to be birdie and eagle machine. He’s also young and could be the future of the American Ryder Cup team.
Andrew Putnam
Aug 21, 2018 at 10:11 am
Thanks Dad!
Robert
Aug 20, 2018 at 3:54 pm
A point system determined the top 8 at the end of the P. If you extend that point system to the top 12 at the end of the PGA you get Bryson, Tiger, Phil, and Xander. The French and Euros get to see:
Bryson (young, talented, with a new idea/approach to the game)
Tiger and Phil (legends – who would not want to see them play?)
Xander – new, young, talented.
Go with the point system)
Majduffer
Aug 20, 2018 at 3:09 pm
Tiger is a real iffy pick as he can’t hit a fairway. If the PGA championship had been at any major type venue instead of the milk toast setup, then I think
TW would have not made the cut. He would have hit his stinger all day and giving up copious yards to everyone. Im sure euros will tighten the course if TW is
picked. Note TWs fairway hit stats are inflated as he hits his 2I almost half the time. How would you like to play alt. shot with a guy who is giving up 30yds on holes you should be hitting a driver. Phil has a great short game so he is a natural for the team events. The rest of the picks should be youth.
Mike C
Aug 20, 2018 at 3:54 pm
Regardless of how he gets it done, Tiger had the lead on the back 9 Sunday in the British Open a few weeks earlier and the course setup was 180 degrees opposite of that of the PGA Championship. So your argument about course setup is not valid. Tiger has proven he can compete under any conditions.
Dreg
Aug 20, 2018 at 9:19 pm
Yes, when he is playing by himself for himself, only
Tee-Bone
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:54 pm
Tee-Bone picks;
1.Tiger…He’s back, and plus…he’s Tiger
2.Phil…Has had a great year, including a win. He’s the de facto US leader. Plus, he’s filthy at Ping Pong.
3.DeChambeau…He’s the real deal. He’ll be on many more teams, so get him in the mix now. Plus, he can teach the other guys how to execute a proper “baseline shift”.
4.Finau…It’s all about “inclusion” these days. Plus, he shook off a nasty ankle sprain. He’s tough.
kileen
Aug 20, 2018 at 2:40 pm
what does “inclusion” mean here? pick him because of his ethnicity? if so, wtf is wrong with you
Art Williams
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:41 pm
If you don’t pick Phil you’re nuts. The only reason anyone wouldn’t pick Phil is a pent up long standing prejudice against him. It’s only been the last few years that most of the media started to embrace him and his swipe at a moving ball in the US Open has been the catalyst for some members of the media to again find a reason to take a shot at him. It’s like OK we have our leader back ( Tiger) so it’s time to dump Phil AGAIN.Most fans love Phil but the media doesn’t. It’s an old story. Instead of just saying I don’t like Phil you’ll come up with some statistical reason to not pick him. It was evident on air yesterday that there are still many in the golf media who just don’t like him as his name was either ignored or there were questions about his worthiness on the Ryder Cup. Good god guys, he’s Phil Mickelson and he is the Ryder Cup. Cantley, really!
Fiorenzo
Aug 21, 2018 at 2:23 am
Could not agree with you more ; and this is from many miles away on another continent. leave Phil out and Europe will smile and say thanks.
Jack Nash
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:28 pm
Just like in the Mutual Fund biz “Past Performance insn’t a guarantee of future returns”. The same can be said about Woods. The article basically went against itself. Just because somebody was great 5-10 yrs ago doesn’t guarantee a winning return. The “afraid”of Tiger effect has gone. There’s more than a few on the Euro team who would relish playing a guy who can’t find the fairway.
Mike C
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:41 pm
Tiger got to 11th on the Ryder Cup points list in just 14 starts. He’s finished 6th and 2nd in the last two majors and has finished in the top 12 in half his starts. Of all the players who aren’t automatically on the team, he has the best stats. What rationale is there to keep him off the team?
Matty
Aug 20, 2018 at 2:02 pm
He just don’t like him lol, Tiger should be in and Phil should be out, when is the last time PM made a cut?
Tartan Golf Travel
Aug 20, 2018 at 9:42 pm
They will both make it…..Phil has a win this year and 6 top 10’s.
Dreg
Aug 20, 2018 at 9:21 pm
Because, Mike C, when it comes to alternative shots, nobody will want to be hitting the 2nd shot after Eldrick’s tee shot
Mike C
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:14 pm
Can someone please forward this article to Captain Furyk?
Jay Beezy
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:14 pm
omg this article is ridiculous on so many levels it’s hard to know where to begin. But I will say given TV rights, team chemistry, history and precedent there is no way PM and TW aren’t on the team so if you want to crunch some nerdy stats to try and make your case (as if golf is something you can predict) – then do it for two players not all 4. I mean Woods and Mickelson are both in the top 12 on the actual points qualifying list. Why would anyone write this article given that fact? And the other two points wise are Schauffele and DeChambeau which would be fine. Just pick the top 12. Stroontz…
Tim May
Aug 20, 2018 at 11:47 am
Love how you spell out the quant rules, and then violate two (2!) with the “obvious pick” of Woods.
1. “Ryder Cup experience doesn’t mean anything if the player is a poor Ryder Cup performer.”
Losing record = poor performer.
2. “All things being equal, take the younger player.”
Younger = anyone born in/after the Bicentenntial year..
Really?
Fut
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:09 pm
Yea, why not? The younguns are the future 🙂
Ty Webb
Aug 21, 2018 at 10:17 am
I read it as an experienced player with a poor record doesn’t get any extra consideration over a rookie. Fine, TW doesn’t get any props for experience, still a better pick than anyone else.
And all things are not equal. Tiger is clearly the best player not on the team now and it’s not really close.
Mike Honcho
Aug 20, 2018 at 11:43 am
Cantlay? Pace of play headache! DeChambeau? Case of headcase! Replace with Kuchar and Zach Johnson.
Team
Aug 20, 2018 at 11:09 am
It can’t be Eldrick. The reason why his record is not good in the Ryder Cup is because he is NOT a team player. He has never been, and never will be, a selfish dog that he is. The smile and joking banter we’ve all seen lately on the course is fake, it’s just idle chit-chat on the course about nothing. He will be a disruptive force, he will not help bind the team together.
Sneds, Kuch, ZJ, Phil.
Mike C
Aug 20, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Tiger’s playing too good to leave him off.
Dreg
Aug 20, 2018 at 9:25 pm
Only for himself! NOT a team player, Team is correct. Eldrick’s presence will disrupt everybody
d
Aug 20, 2018 at 11:01 am
Phil is the obvious sentimental pick. Plus, he’s really good at ping-pong in the team locker room.
Tartan Golf Travel
Aug 19, 2018 at 9:08 pm
It will be Tiger and Phil for sure. I think Kuchar is out. I’d probably go Xander and Bryson, which is what I think he will do. Finau just hasn’t done much in big tournaments. His only win was an opposite field event. I like Cantlay and Wise but I think given this is probably Phil and Tigers last Cup they will be on plenty in the future. If Sneds gets hot he’s a great pick and Bryson will be out,
Keith
Aug 20, 2018 at 11:03 am
Finau hasn’t done much in big tournaments, top 10 in the first 3 majors isn’t good enough??? WHAAAATTT?
Masters 10th
US Open 5th
British 9th
PGA 42nd (Tied the single round birdie record while playing with Furyk)
Other “Big” Tournaments:
WGC HSBC 11th
Farmers 6th
Genesis 2nd
Memorial 13th
WGC Bridgestone 10th
Let’s see how the “Mad” (as in temper) Scientist has fared in the same events:
Masters 38th
US Open 25th
British 51st
PGA MC
Farmers MC
Genesis 41st
Memorial 1st
WGC Bridgestone 30th
Looks to me like it’s Bryson who’s struggled when the lights have been the brightest…save for The Memorial 3mos ago.
Bryson will be a cancer in the team room and fodder for the Euro crowds who will eat him up for his selfish antics. Meanwhile Finau is a birdie making machine who has performed the best when the lights were brightest. He’s jovial, friendly, well liked by his peers, etc.
It’s a no brainer.
Tartan Golf Travel
Aug 20, 2018 at 3:45 pm
I like Finau but 1 win in an opposite field event is just not enough. I don’t disagree with you on Bryson but he’s won twice already and plays with Tiger all the time. I’d say you might need to get a life looking up all that info! Finau is a pretty poor putter by PGA standards. Outside of Kuchar I do believe they would all be decent pics so if it’s Finau over Bryson I get it.
DL
Aug 19, 2018 at 8:59 pm
If anyone says Finau out….you’re crazy. Dude is built for match play! Would like to see the numbers on X-man and why he wasnt selected.
gunmetal
Aug 19, 2018 at 8:04 pm
Cantlay over Mickelson, Kuchar, Johnson, Snedeker? Numbers are cute but there is no analytic for pressure and four out of five of the guys mentioned above have demonstrated they can handle it. Cantlay won once in Vegas in a playoff with a par iirc with a very weak field. And that’s it. He really hasn’t demonstrated any ability to perform under major championship/Ryder cup level pressure. I’d take Pat Perez and a big list of others over Cantlay.
Alcap26
Aug 19, 2018 at 6:08 pm
Kuchar, Finau, and Cantlay
Shu
Aug 19, 2018 at 5:06 pm
Kuchar, Mickelson, Schauffele IN
Deschambeau Cantlay Finau OUT
I would say.