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Opinion & Analysis

PGA Tour Players on the Rise and Decline heading into 2019

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At the end of each season, I compile data on every PGA Tour player and then analyze which players are on the rise and the decline for the upcoming season. There are a number of variables that are historically quality indicators of a golfer’s future performance such as age, club speed, adjusted scoring average, etc. I tend to focus on what I call The Cornerstones of the Game, however, and these Cornerstones include:

• Driving Effectiveness
• Red Zone Play (approach shots from 175-225 yards)
• Short Game shots (from 10-20 yards)
• Putting (5-15 feet)
• Ball Speed

All that is needed to execute the Cornerstones of the Game is for the player to be in the top-half on the PGA Tour in each metric. That’s the beauty of the concept; a player does not need to be dominant in each metric. He can simply be average at each metric and it increases his likelihood of not only having a great season, but recording a PGA Tour victory. I can then use the Cornerstones concept to more accurately project players on the rise for the following season.

This past season there were 10 players that reached The 5 Cornerstones of the Game and they made an average of $4.2 million on the season. Given their success, I focused my analysis more on players that narrowly missed The 5 Cornerstones and their metrics to determine what players will be ‘on the rise.’

PLAYERS ON THE RISE

*The following rankings are based out of 193 players

Daniel Berger

Normally, The Players on the Rise is reserved for lesser known Tour players. Berger had a solid season, but it was considered a disappointment as he only had one top-10 finish (T6 at the U.S. Open).

But, Berger executed The 5 Cornerstones of the Game and overall his skill metrics are impressive. The main concerns is that his driving distance declined as it appears he’s hitting with a more downward attack angle than in the past and he ranked 191st on shots from the greenside bunker. But if those issues get resolved he’s on pace to get back into the winner’s circle, very soon.

Brandon Harkins

Harkins recorded three top-10’s last season, but showed a quality all-around game except for his Short Game around the green. However, that is a smaller priority. He is quite long off the tee and effective overall with the driver. He was also a very good Red Zone performer and showed the ability to putt well. He only missed The 5 Cornerstones of the Game due to his short game performance, but that is far lesser on the scale of importance when it comes to success on Tour.

Keith Mitchell

Mitchell missed The 5 Cornerstones due to his putting. However, there is a correlation on Tour between driving distance and the length of the average birdie putt. Meaning, the longer a Tour player hits the ball they will likely have a shorter average length birdie putt. Thus, the longer hitter can be less skillful with the flatstick and still make more putts because they are hitting putts from a closer distance which normally are easier to make. Therefore, the data is not overly worried about Mitchell’s putting woes. And in general, it’s common for bombers to struggle badly with their putting in their rookie season.

JT Poston

Poston only missed The 5 Cornerstones due to his play from 10-20 yards. But he showed that he was a quality driver and putter of the ball while being an elite Red Zone performer. Historically, players like Poston that drive it well and excel from the Red Zone while having quality ball speed tend to improve dramatically from the Yellow Zone in the following seasons. And that means making a lot more birdies while avoiding bogeys.

Cameron Champ

Champ is coming from the Web.com Tour, so he doesn’t have any stats yet to share. But there is no substitute for pure, unadulterated power on Tour. And Champ has it by the bushels full. His Club Speed at the Safeway Open was recorded at 129.6 mph and he was No. 1 in Driving Effectiveness for the event.

Historically, the bombers that arrive on Tour struggle from the Red Zone and with their short game and putting early on. If Champ can perform reasonably well in those areas he could have an immediate impact on the Tour this season.

PLAYERS ON THE DECLINE

Jason Dufner

Age (40) works against Dufner. He was a very good driver of the ball with respectable distance off the tee. It appears that he has made some alterations in his swing to produce an upward attack angle with the driver in order to gain more distance as he gets older. Players near Dufner’s age that have made similar attack angle changes have suffered from a similar consequence; their iron play declines dramatically.

This is also about the age when a Tour player’s putting starts to decline and that would leave a profile of a player that drives it well and is respectable around the green, but has struggles on approach shots and putting. That means fewer birdies on a Tour that is becoming more birdie-happy.

Si Woo Kim

The former Players Championship winner benefited from the schedule that comes along with winning at Sawgrass. He finished 153rd in Adjusted Scoring Average, but still finished the year 34th in FedEx Cup points.

Kim doesn’t do anything that well outside of his short game. His putting performances are often downright bizarre. Such as the lead he had at Harbour Town where he was on fire and then missed four short putts in a row to blow the lead. As much as being long and a good putter works well on Tour, short and yippy putting doesn’t work on Tour.

Kevin Kisner

Kisner was a popular candidate for a Ryder Cup Captain’s pick, but the numbers suggested otherwise. He wasn’t the accurate driver that they were looking for. And his iron play was horrendous and his short game around the green was not much better. He did rank 13th in Putts Gained, but some of that came from the benefit of putting well outside 15-feet and over time that will regress towards the mean. Thus his strength will not likely be as strong as it was this season.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar’s age (40) is starting to show up in his lack of distance off the tee and his regression in Red Zone play. He still puts up quality numbers, but he’s more likely to see a regression in his putting.

These are still numbers that can have successful seasons on Tour and maybe get a victory, but as far as competing in the bigger events (except for Sawgrass) it appears that Kuchar’s days may be over.

Brendan Steele

Steele benefited from a schedule where there was a lot of FedEx points given out due to him winning the Safeway Open in 2016 and 2017. And the good news is that he’s still an excellent driver of the ball that hits it a long ways with very good accuracy. However, his iron play and putting were a real struggle for him last year and there’s no signs of his putting improving anytime soon. Despite ‘owning’ Silverado Country Club, he finished T53 and it’s just another indication of a decline in his play.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Mr. Freeze

    Oct 10, 2018 at 4:57 pm

    Who were the 10 that hit all 5 Cornerstones?

  2. Mr. 1488

    Oct 10, 2018 at 1:23 pm

    Speaking of age, its about time you change that picture Richie. Its from 20 plus years ago. You’re now a middle aged man, not a 17 year old kid.

  3. Zander Cage

    Oct 9, 2018 at 9:01 pm

    Good stuff Rich! I always enjoy reading this column.

    Who were some of the guys who just missed the 5 cornerstones to look out for?

  4. Point Misser

    Oct 9, 2018 at 6:57 pm

    Player on the rise: Tiger Woods

  5. Reznor

    Oct 9, 2018 at 2:25 pm

    Am I understanding that you aren’t using any kind of comparison base? So even though Berger had a horrible year compared to his 3 previous seasons, and battled an injury, his stock is on the rise based on a single year’s snapshot of static metrics? I would agree that it is unlikely for someone so young and talented to have 2 consecutive years of such poor performance, but I can’t wrap my head around how after his worst year on tour, and using no more than the stats from that worst year, you can postulate that his stock is on the rise.

    • DarthBlader

      Oct 9, 2018 at 5:28 pm

      Its all relative. Doesn’t mean he is going to win the Masters.

      • Matt

        Oct 10, 2018 at 9:53 am

        This you’re missing his rather simple point. He had a poor year compared to his previous performances… so why is that “on the rise?”

        • truth

          Oct 10, 2018 at 8:12 pm

          You realize there is more likelihood to be on the rise from the bottom right?

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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