If you thought the FedEx play-offs made little sense, how about this?

53 players face the final test on this year’s European Tour at the Earth course to decide not only the winner of the ludicrous prize money but also the title of European Tour number one. Heading the list is Collin Morikawa. Yes, the player that has turned up in three tour events and finished T71, T68 and The (British) Open champion. We’ve even got James Morrison having to go off solo due to the odd numbers starting. Grow the game, eh?

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Enough politics. Here we are looking at a long 7650+ yard track with two of the four par-fives of over 620 yards, and whilst length is clearly an advantage there is an equal emphasis on a quality tee-to-green game that gives the best chances on these large Bermuda greens.

In its 12 runnings, the championship has seen four players win twice, and most of the more prominent combatants repeat form here and in the desert overall.

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With the oddsmakers going around 2-1 that either Rory McIlroy or Collin Morikawa win there has to be value around somewhere, and whilst both are hugely respected, odds of around +550 and +750 have no appeal.

Here follows my idea of the best value in Dubai this week:

Danny Willett Win/Top 5 +5000/+800 (DraftKings)

As discussed, repeat winners ahoy here, and the 34-year-old can be the fifth in seven years to lift the trophy again.

The 2016 Masters Champion (bizarrely easily forgotten) has been beset with injury issues over the last couple of years but spoke positively during the Alfred Dunhill Links, an event he went on to win from the front and celebrate alongside his birthday.

Willett’s form in the desert is of the highest class, with two top-five finishes sitting alongside his win round here and a victory in the Dubai Desert Classic in 2016. A similar record is held in the Dunhill Links – 2md/5th and this season’s win – whilst his win at the top class BMW at Wentworth shows he can do it when the track is tougher.

Two recent top-30 finishes on the PGA tour read well enough, and whilst intertwined with missed-cuts, this is a player that turns up at the right course at the right time.

Sean Crocker Top 5/Top 10 +900/+350 (DraftKings)

Before the American’s unfortunate accident at St. Andrews (tripped in a hole), Crocker was one of the shining lights on the tour.

Since Lockdown, the 25-year-old has lit up the tee-to-green stats failing only by that well-known obstacle, the putter, and whilst the injury took its toll for a couple of weeks in Spain, he has come back to form in time for the big one.

In Portugal and Dubai, perfectly reasonable wind-affected open tracks like the one they face this week, Crocker has been top-20 in approach and tee-to-green, all helping to make his seasonal stats keep up with the best.

Take a look at these from the 2021 season – 5th off-the-tee, 6th in approach, 5th tee-to-green and in par-fives – he is now back to full health, has a long course that will suit, and it is purely down to whether he keeps bogeys off his card. Ranking 35th for birdies, I certainly expect him to improve past the 14th placed finish last year (second round 76), and he did look as though he left a few shots behind at the sister Fire course last week.

Francesco Laporta Win/Top 5/Top 10 +6000/+1100/+400 (DraftKings)

It is doubtful that Laporta will get a better chance to win than he had last week, but that wasn’t entirely down to himself.

Whilst he was banging in approaches to give himself a chance and was a tad tentative with many of his putt, there was little he could do as eventual winner JB Hansen kept saving par from difficult positions, always just keeping his nose in front.

Put simply, the Italian has never been better, surpassing his excellent two Challenge Tour wins with a run of four top-seven finishes in as many starts, including at his home Open, at Wentworth, Portugal and just six days ago.

During that time, we have top-10 efforts for all the main attributes in a full field, including four putting displays ranking no worse than 23rd and as good as 7th and 12th the last twice.

He may not be able to show any repeat form here at the Earth course, but he’s now gone 2/2 around the Fire and spoke very enthusiastically about his game. This is a huge moment for the improver, having almost been without his card until Italy in September.

Incidentally, if we are ever going to catch him on his day, all of Laporta’s best five finishes as a professional have been from September onwards. Biorhythms? Maybe. Or maybe he’s just very good.