Opinion & Analysis
2022 Ras al Khaimah Classic Outright Bets

Back to Al Hamra again this week, as the course covers for the cancelled Indian Masters.
Visitors to the course over the last month have reported that there isn’t that much that organisers can do with the course in order to make it much different to last week’s test and the result should tell the same story.
As well as ranking top-two off the tee last week, both the overall top pair, Nicolai Hojgaard and Jordan Smith, brought the expected form from the Alfred Dunhill Links and Portugal to the fore, and thus brought in links to the Scottish Open and Qatar. Alongside them in the final top-10 were seven players ranked in the top-10 for tee-to-green, either courtesy of the driver or some exceptional approach play.
Get it done somehow, but get it done in regulation. That’s the only way of putting up a winning score, expected to be around 20-under. As the great David Byrne sang, ‘same as it ever was.’
Here are my best bets for the outright market.
Haotong Li – Win/Top 10 +3500/+340
Full respect to both the front two who must have every chance of finishing in the top echelons again, but if there is one player in the top-20 of the betting that could be too classy for all of them, it’s the conqueror of Rory McIlroy at the 2018 Dubai Desert Classic.
Halfway leader at the PGA at Harding Park, the man from Hunan has never been the most consistent of prospects but, when he clicks, he is perfectly capable of once again justifying his previous position well inside the world top-75, as he did for three seasons from 2017 to 2019.
There is no point in going over older records with Li, although top five finishes in Sicily and at the Alfred Dunhill Links are significant here, so concentrate on what he is doing right now, and after a closing third last week, I expect him to ride the wave and kick on again.
With a view to his best three main-tour finishes since October, the bronze medalist from the Open Championship at Birkdale has been 14th at the Alfred Dunhill Links (second for approaches and tee-to-green), 12th at the Sony Open (19th and 17th respectively) and third last week around here when leading the approach stats, resulting to a ranking of fourth for tee-to-green.
Having been well out of form or injured for almost all of 2021, he bounced back with a runner-up at his home Tour Championship in December before this recent run of results that have surely given him the confidence he can again compete at the top.
Li repeats at the same courses. Witness a fourth and fifth at the Nedbank, win and fourth at his home Open, two runner-up finishes in Turkey, and similar finishes just outside the top placings and expect him to do the same at Al Hamra.
Matthieu Pavon – Win/Top-10 +6000/+450
29-year-old Pavon hasn’t won outside of the Alps Tour, or indeed anywhere since 2015, but surely his turn is coming after a very encouraging 2021 and a terrific start to the new season.
In 2021, the Frenchman’s best results included a top-10 at Gran Canaria, but that pales into insignificance for this course when seeing the 12th at the Links at St. Andrews and runner-up in Portugal, just behind Thomas Pieters, having led into payday with a brace of low rounds (64/65).
On both occasions, Pavon struck the ball beautifully from tee to green and will surely learn from his experience at Dom Pedro, when a treble-bogey eight at the par-five 12th hole let in a host of players.
What impressed was the way he shook that off to land the ball close to the following par-three to make birdie, and again he was to recover a dropped shot at the 14th with a birdie three. Given the circumstances and the pressure, those snippets of recovery rather than a full-on collapse were eye-catching and, after a couple of months’ break, he has re-appeared to tie with the afore-mentioned Li last weekend.
16th off-the-tee, seventh in approach and fifth tee-to-green (in first place after three rounds) are all ingredients that suit here, and they are part of an extended run of good ball-striking that hopefully continues here.
There are plenty of these links specialists that appeal, but none stand out in the outright market.
Nods go to Ross Fisher and Oliver Wilson as part of the ‘old guard’ that could land top finishes at a course like this should the wind arrive.
Should the gusts get up a tad and make this more of a Scottish Open/ coastal test, watch out for Fisher over the weekend for in-running bets.
If conditions allow, he is long and low off the tee and improved his greens-in-regulation stats last week to lie seventh after three rounds and second after the final 18, all figures that will help as the event rolls on.
Wilson’s only victory on the European Tour was a defeat of Rory McIlroy at the 2014 Dunhill Links (here we go again, sorry), but it would be harder to find someone that works harder at their game.
Very active on social media, the 41-year-old continues to be positive about his game and whilst results aren’t quite showing that he remains confident that good things are coming, a point he raises to my @LostForeWords podcast anchorman, Tom Jacobs with regularity.
Consecutive finishes in the top dozen in Mallorca and Portugal read nicely, whilst his first outing for a couple of months saw him continue that good tee-to-green game with a ranking just outside the top-20 despite feeling jet-lagged during the opening round.
It is speculative, but there is something there, and it will show at some point.
At around +700 and +1400 for top-10 finishes and +350 and +600 for a top-20, both are worth a look even if not advised as a play unless the weather turns.
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.