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Opinion & Analysis

2022 Masters: Best prop bets

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Augusta National

Funny ol’ game.

While we all look forward to majors, particularly the nuances of Augusta, the limited field causes its own problems.

With so much set in stone and so many proven formulae, it’s difficult to look beyond the obvious 20 or so, most of whom will take up a place inside the top-10, leaving us with very little.

Still, after a couple of enjoyable weeks, let’s see if we can add to wins at the Corales and Texas Open and make it a hat-trick.

Xander Schauffele Top 10 finish +185

As I bang my head against the wall each year, bemoaning my outright wager on Xander, folk chuckle and mention how he ‘can’t’ win anymore.

That debate is for another page, but in a limited field that requires form in majors and quality approach play, he is tough to oppose in a place market.

Not only is Xander playing well enough to compete, his record here and in Georgia, as a whole, is undeniably impressive.

East Lake is clearly the 28-year-old’s first love, with two wins, a runner-up, third and seventh places from five starts, but he repeats form at a couple of other places, including at the WM Pheonix Open, where he had chances to win in each of the last two years before finishing tied-second and tied-third, respectively.

At Augusta, the 28-year-old has a second and third from four attempts, the runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2019 courtesy of an impressive final round 68, whilst he held every chance last season until the 16th hole on Payday, where a triple-bogey ruined his chance of winning.

In between, an untimely rain delay put him off his stride during the softer conditions of the ‘lockdown’ Masters, and ultimately he did well to finish well inside the top-20 after making some strange decisions during a rain break during the second round.

The former top-10 amateur was, like so many, baffled by Kiawah Island last year but otherwise has a 16th at Bethpage Black and a 10th at Harding Park where, at both, he was never outside the top-20 at any stage. And he can boast even better at the US Open.

Only a victory is missing from Xander’s profile at the toughest of the US majors, with a record that reads 7/5/3/6/5, and in-running punters should note that in four of his five attempts at the title he has been closer at the end of Sunday play than he was at any stage.

Currently ranking in the top six for his approaches from 50 to 125, 100 to 125 and 175 to 200 yards, it seems that it is only his mental approach that’s the difference between another place and the big win.

For this bet to cop, though, the world ranked number 10 merely has to add an impressive 10th top-10 (how many 10s can one have?) from 19 major starts.

Paul Casey Top 20 +200

Playing arguably the best golf of his career at 44, the Englishman would surely be a few points shorter in all markets but for a slight injury worry.

Casey has been continuing some impressive ball-striking, consistently appearing in the top echelons of the tee-to-green stats. Indeed, in six completed events since the Dubai Championship in November, he has ranked in the top-10 four times, whilst at The Players his strong iron play led to being just inside the top-15.

Go back to 2020, around when the run starts and Casey boasts 10 front-page finishes that included a three-event run from Pebble Beach to Bay Hill and Sawgrass, while he also recorded a top-5 at Kiawah Island, The Olympics and at St Jude. All that leaving out a tied-seventh at the US Open at Torrey Pines.

The latest results have seen ‘Case’ finish 15th at Riviera, 72nd at Bay Hill (was sixth at halfway before the weather came in), and third at Sawgrass, an event that again was badly weather-affected and one that clearly took its toll and caused him to withdraw from last week’s Valspar.

For those that haven’t seen, the 19-time professional winner was extremely unlucky down the stretch at The Players, his perfect tee-shot finding the bottom of a pitch mark at the final par-5, and although the result on paper is still not far off being top-class, it could, and should, have been an even better guide to his chance at The Masters.

Results in majors? Five top-10 finishes and three further top-20s at Augusta; two top-7 finishes at the U.S Open with the last five years reading T7/T17/T21/T16/26, and a pair of top-4s in the last two runnings of the USPGA.

Looking at the Valspar, the event itself is an excellent guide to Augusta, with Vijay Singh, Jordan Spieth and Charl Schwartzel winning both, whilst the likes of Jim Furyk, KJ Choi and Retief Goosen have strong places at each.

Casey, of course, went back-to-back at Copperhead in 2018 and 2019, preceding Sam Burns, who completed the feat over the last two years. The younger man is making his debut here, so is instantly red-lined, but Casey, now world ranked 25, has five top-10s and a further three top-20 finishes in 15 starts at Augusta.

He is keen to show the younger brigade that he can still hack it – after all, he was just behind Collin Morikawa in the 2020 PGA and could have beaten Cam Smith at Sawgrass – so it’s all about fitness.

Reports suggest he is moving absolutely fine this week, and he has already dismissed claims he was ‘injured’ – “Purely, it’s a thing when you get to your 40s. But that’s I guess what’s causing the pain in the spasms up the back. I’ve had it, I’ve probably had this like four, five times in 20 years, so it’s not an injury, it’s just, what is it? Fatigue? (It) could be back from the Players and the cold weather and all sorts of stuff and traveling.”

Padraig Harrington Top Senior +145

Bernhard Langer Top Senior +300

The market for top senior may well have eight runners, but, in reality, can be cut down to two.

Start with a few easy deletions, all of whom will be 100-yards off the pace from the tee peg:

Sandy Lyle, winner in 1988 but with 10 missed cuts here in his last 12 starts and doing nothing of note on the Champions Tour; Larry Mize, just as bad around here with three mid-50 finishes and nine missed-cuts in 12, and Jose-Maria Olazabal, better than those two but another too short off the tee and with no claim to doing anything bar miss the cut on a wet, long, Augusta track.

Mike Weir is a fourth that is far too short off the tee to count in this grade and whilst Vijay Singh has a handful of mid-20/30 finishes in the mid-2010s, latest efforts here have seen rounds of 76, 78 and three scores of 80, and current form is flailing.

Then there were three.

Freddie Couples went through a stage from 2010 to 2017 when top-20 backers were in clover but, as the event has increasingly relied on length, his frailties have come to the fore, particularly a career-long back problem that hinders his movement and is worse in damp weather. Having played just once in October and November, this is surely close to a last hurrah.

The column is here to make a profit, and whilst the 50-year-old Irishman is much preferred in this market after a host of splendid efforts, it’s hard to forget how Langer continues to churn out performances that often widely separate him from his peers.

Fourteen years the older man, Langer remains metronomic from tee-to-green and continues to win trophies and seasonal championships.

In 2021, the 64-year-old won the Charles Schwab Cup for the fifth time in seven years (six in total), whilst in 2022 he lists one win, a runner-up, eighth and 10th in just five starts, his last win coming at 64 years and five months – a record for the oldest winner on the Champions Tour.

Having made the cut at Augusta in three of the last four seasons, Langer looks the only danger to Harrington, rightly a short priced favourite.

Lest we forget Phil Mickelson winning the PGA at 50 years of age – why can’t Pod do the same at Augusta?

Yeah, ok, I know.

The three-time major winner comes here in significant form, with high finishes in better events to those his rivals compete in and all summed up with his current world ranking, some 1100 places higher than his principal rival in this market!

Tied-fourth behind Phil at Kiawah before tied-18th in the Scottish Open reads different level, but 2022 form is just as convincing. Over the last six months, Pod has tied in 12th behind Thomas Pieters in Portugal and tied ninth behind Viktor Hovland in Dubai – convinced yet?

The midfield finish at Bay Hill would win this market by a mile, whilst he warmed up for this with a runner-up last weekend on the Champions Tour, miles ahead of Langer.

Pod can still mix it off the tee at the higher level and still possesses the short game that keeps him alongside the younger players.

Whilst he hasn’t payed here since 2015, he looks refreshed after the pressure of being Ryder Cup captain and says he isn’t here to make up the numbers.

Making the cut might not be enough for him, but it may well be all he needs to do to win this market.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Augusta No Bueno

    Apr 7, 2022 at 12:08 am

    Everyone ready for The Massas?

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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