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Opinion & Analysis

2022 Fortinet Championship and Italian Open: Betting Picks & Selections

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From sombre to enthralling, the BMW PGA Championship had the lot.

After the nation stooped following the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, Wentworth had a job of getting golf excited about the final two days of a shortened flagship event – but delivered in spades.

It took a bogey-free 54 holes for Shane Lowry to edge past the brilliance of Jon Rahm’s final round 62, before holding on from pre-event favourite Rory McIlroy, himself missing an eagle putt at the last to tie and take it into a play-off – by an inch.

Back to Earth this week as the DP World Tour has it’s second consecutive outing at the Marco Simone Country Club, venue of next year’s Ryder Cup.

After a couple of years of lesser fields, McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland stick around to provide real class to the Italian Open field, whilst on the PGA Tour, although they can’t quite match the world rankings of those stars, Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa and Corey Conners provide three players ranked in the world’s top 25 to a tournament that feels like it’s the opener to a new season, and that’s exactly what it is.

Best Bets – Italian Open

Adri Arnaus 66/1, Callum Shinkwin 70/1, Rafa Cabrera-Bello 125/1

Whilst nodding at the chances of the three players currently situated inside the world’s top dozen players, none make any appeal the prices.

If given no choice, look to the Northern Irishman, and for the winning distance for last week’s runner-up – he’s awfully short but could easily gag up on a course that will offer untold chances off his top-class tee-to-green play. At 4/1 he leaves no margin for error, though, and with Fitz and Hovland both fading away after having chances over the weekend, I’ll take a look further down the list for a trio of ‘no tears’ wagers.

27-year-old Adri Arnaus has long been a player that the golf community wants to be with, but he flits in and out of form, hence the reason we can get a large price for a player that finished 12th here last year after a missed-cut at Crans.

Constantly long off the tee, a feature of both Nicolai Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk in their one-two of 2021, Arnaus should fare better than late given the more forgiving nature of the fairways compared with Himmerland and Wentworth, courses at which he is historically four from seven in missed-cuts.

32nd for greens-in-regulation this year, the Spaniard has proven a lot tidier in his tee-to-green game this season, can take advantage of his length and tee-to-green game and it will all be down to the way he operates on the greens.

This isn’t the Alps, a region Arnaus does well at, but amongst his wins in Italy is the victory at the Challenge Tour Grand Finale, where he beat Victor Perez. Hosted by the Al Hamra course at Ras Al Khaimah, that course has seen a victory from Hojgaard and a runner-up and sixth from Meronk – all from just a combined handful of outings – that’s the correlative form of correlative form, and I have no issues putting up his top-10 efforts in Dubai as evidence of his class.

29-year-old Callum Shinkwin is one of those players. Try to pigeon-hole him as a pure links player and he’ll make you look silly, yet there is something about his style that leads me to think that given the chance to open up on a track that has those elements, he can go silly low.

Another whose Wentworth form is less than ordinary, ignore that and he comes here off three progressive results. The Moor Park star was sixth at the halfway mark when overall 16th at Hillside, a closing seventh at Fairmont, and finally an easy four-shot winner at Celtic Manor just over a month ago, his second win on tour.

Past form indicates he should improve on the 46th last year, his fifth at the KLM Open linking in Dutch form of many of last year’s leaderboard (Hojgaard runner-up) whilst an 8th behind Thorbjorn Olesen and Frani Molinari came on Gardagolf, an equally open course that one reviewer called “relaxed.”

No stress, open the shoulders, bit of quality with the irons, and Shinks is right there.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello was once 16th in the OWGR, and if last week indicates his future play, he can start inching his way closer to that than his current position outside of the top 150.

One swallow and all that, but I felt there would be more of a reaction to some excellent play last week when the Spaniard ranked 24th off-the-tee, sixth for approaches and third for tee-to-green, behind only winner Lowry and Abraham Ancer. Indeed, the 38-year-old ranked second in his second round for both that and his approaches. Anything resembling that sees him able to contend with even the very best, as he did when winning in Dubai and contending at Sawgrass, WGC Mexico and Jordan Spieth’s Open victory at Birkdale.

There is no suggestion yet he is back to that level of form, but something clearly clicked during his nine-birdie second round and having ranked eighth in birdies for the three days, he can bring that confidence to a course he may not have played on before, but to a country in which he is ‘played one, finished fourth’ – in 2018, two shots in front of Shinkwin.

That isn’t the only connection between the two. In fact, bring all three into a form-line.

Rafa has won six times at professional level, two wins via a play-off. In 2017 he bested Shinkwin to win the Scottish Open, whilst when winning his home Open, he beat Arnaus in a tense finale.

Fortinet Championship

Cameron Davis 28/1, Brendan Steele 50/1, Emiliano Grillo Top South American 1/1

Just a couple in the outright market this week.

While Corey Conners holds impressive claims this week, he does only have one victory to his name, albeit the potentially relevant Texas Open. At under 20/1 though, I can leave him alone, especially as he will be a bigger price for better events, yet still hold similar claims to contend.

Instead, take 27-year-old Cameron Davis to kick on after opening his PGA Tour account last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic from Troy Merrit, a player with finishes of 4th/15th/16th around Silverado.

The Australian has taken his time to settle down on tour but his best efforts read well in the context of the challenge this week in a area he loves.

Third at the 2021 American Express behind Si Woo Kim and Patrick Cantlay, he finished in front of Tony Finau (good record here) whilst at Harbour Town in April this year he was just a shot behind top class Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay.

That was the start of a run of 11 cuts and just one weekend off, at the Wells Fargo, after an uncharacteristically poor second round saw him miss the cut by two shots.

In those 11, Davis has top-10 finishes at the classic Charles Schwab and John Deere, and at the Barracuda, and he backs those up with three recent top-20 finishes at Twin Cities and Detroit before 13th and 35th at the first two play-off events.

Over the past three months, Davis ranks 16th for ball-striking, 28th for par-5 performance, 31st for greens, and 2nd in birdie conversion.

Very much at home in California, where he has made his last 12 cuts, he looks the type to progress his game to another level this year, very much in the Max Homa way of 2021.

It may be a bit too obvious to go for two-time winner Brendan Steele here, but despite winning back-to-back in 2016 and 2017, his best form of the last year suggests he can still compete around a course he clearly loves to play, and is a price that works.

A winner not only of two events at the Napa Valley track but also in Texas, his places at the Sony, Sawgrass, River Highlands and Pheonix highlight the tracks he plays well at – he is tidy and that presents itself with chances on the greens. This isn’t a track players want to be giving shots away because of poor approach play and Steele’s best results have been when he is top-20 in both driving and irons.

For evidence of those crucial elements, examine the 39-year-old’s figures from his last five completed starts.

Average rankings for off-the-tee and approach is around 13th, leading to 12th for overall tee-to-green; in old money Steele ranks fifth for total driving, second for ball-striking, and sixth in greens-in-regulation.

Down to the flat stick. At a ‘bullseye’,  take the chance.

No prices are out yet, but have a look at Chez Reavie for possible first round leader this week. With an average first round position of 14th in his last six starts here and bests of 1st and 4th, an early start would be a bonus.

Instead, snap up any evens about Emiliano Grillo to be top South American.

As always, this is about context with the market rivals, of which there are three.

Augusto Nunez had a decent run on the Korn Ferry Tour from June and July, but regressed with two missed cuts from the three championship starts and has never played around here. Nicolas Echavarria is another to have only won on the South American Tour, but does come here off a top-five at the KFT finale. Yet again, though, he has no form in California, yet alone around Silverado.

Finally Tano Goya has regressed dramatically since looking a potential future star in the early 2010s. Now ranked outside the top 600, he looks to be on the way back after a couple of injury-ravaged seasons, but again, a pair of top-six finishes in 20 starts should not trouble the favourite.

Grillo is easy to make a case for.

Known as one of the most difficult of players to win with, the Argentinian still competes strongly despite struggling to get his head in front.

Winner of this event, when known as the Frys.com Open, he backs that up with three further top-30 finishes in six starts, but his 2022 form leads me to think he can better those by some margin.

J.T Poston had a short-lived fright as Grillo stuck with him for much of the final round at Deere Run, whilst he split a flying Tony Finau and Sungjae Im at the 3M Open just a fortnight later – form of a different level to anything his market rivals can offer.

Since then, the Argentinian took part in the first two play-off events, finishing 31st at St. Jude (ninth at halfway) and 19th in the BMW at Wilmington, both events again on a higher level than his competition has ever seen.

Grillo continues to present a top-class tee-to-green game, ranking 30th in total driving, 14th in ball-striking, ninth for greens-in-regulation, eighth for par-4s and 31st for the longer holes. Given these stats are all for full-field PGA Tour events, he should be able to win this market with a few to spare.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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