Opinion & Analysis
2023 Phoenix Open: Betting Picks & Selections

There couldn’t be more of a contrast from the evil of Pebble Beach last week to the raucous party that will take place in Scottsdale this week.
From a depleted field to one that contains 18 of the world’s top 20 players, there is no doubt that the 2023 elevated events are attracting the biggest names in the game. Combine that with Superbowl weekend, a stadium course and one of the biggest crowds outside of the majors, and this will be one to watch all weekend.
Played for the last 36 years at Scottsdale, the course offers a mix of risk-and-reward holes as well as severe penalties for those that hit it wild. Witness the 17th, or 71st, hole over the last two runnings.
In contention, both Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele hooked their aggressive approaches into the greenside lake, handing the title to Brooks Koepka, whilst last year debutant Sahith Theegala found that luck was not with him, his tee-shot perfectly on line but finding a hard bounce, long roll, and a place next to those of the far more experienced duo.
Whilst the course offers it’s rewards, first-timers are far more likely to be put off by the enthusiastic, if slightly drunk, crowd, perhaps demonstrating why the list of recent winners includes major winners and contenders.
It’s always tough opting between the classier players at the top of the market, but world number five Patrick Cantlay makes most appeal at anything over 14/a and should be backed as such.
Understandably, there is plenty of repeat course form here, so it is testament to the 30-year-old’s class, that he contended a play-off here on debut last year.
There are few secrets from the elite of the golfing world and, like most, with Cantlay we get a solid bank of high-level form, highlighted by his efforts at the Shriners and Memorial tournaments, both included in a select group of comp courses.
It’s quite simple with Pat. At Summerlin he has recorded finishes of 1/2/2/8/2 whilst at Muirfield we get a pair of victories, third, fourth and seventh in just seven starts. I love this as a guide, particularly when looking at his numbers.
At both course, Cantlay ranks an average of around 11th off-the-tee, 22nd for approaches and 11th for tee-to-green. In last season’s play-off loss, he ranked 13th OTT, 27th SGA and 10th T2G – spot anything?
Cantlay often needs a run or two so I’m not worried about the opening 16th at the Tournament of Champions, and the 26th place at the American Express can possibly be upgraded a touch – 14th at halfway and fought back from a poor third round and 49th place – and he arrives at what looks a perfect course.
If most of the top lot are easy to read, I’m still not sure that we have reached anything like the ceiling for Tom Kim.
It’s tough to add anything new to this potential superstar other than most golf fans were waiting to see how he reacted to a stellar first full year on tour – it certainly isn’t disappointing!
17th on ‘debut’ at the Byron Nelson, the 20-year-old has done nothing but improve, and now ranks inside the top-15 thanks to victories at the Wyndham and Shriners championships, both with huge form links to the Pheonix Open, courtesy mainly to Webb Simpson and Cantlay.
If Kim was going to fall away he may have started at the seasonal opener where his lack of length would have been exposed. However, a fifth place secured his name in the minds of most for the rest of the year, enhanced by a sixth place at the American Express where a ranking of 16th in approaches was his worst for some time, the vast majority being inside the top-10.
Tom absolutely relished the party environment of the Presidents Cup and will no doubt do the same here on debut, another factor hardly worrying given his first-time efforts last year. It was close between he and compatriot Sungjae Im, but despite the latter’s course experience, there is a win factor element that gives the younger man the hard edge.
Mentioned already, Sahith Theegala is another name that should pay to follow for this year and beyond.
Once again, his profile is hardly secretive, and even if he has just that ‘unofficial’ pairs win to his name, could quite easily be sitting aside Tom Kim with two individual titles.
It’s almost impossible to ignore what the 25-year-old did on debut here last year, when even ‘star-struck’ playing with Koepka and Xander, he managed to find himself tied for the lead on payday Sunday.
However, in came the troublesome 17th, and whilst his tee shot took an awful bounce and careered his ball into the water, the highly-decorated Pepperdine graduate, came out of the event with a much higher profile and a fan club much bigger than the 100-or-so family and friends that surrounded him afterwards.
Previously, Theegala had led at the Sanderson Farms before proving a touch naive, whilst he also tried a miracle bunker shot when in contention at the last hole of the Travelers, something that caused a double-bogey and a two-shot defeat.
Add a top five at Muirfield to his collection of high finishes – an event he called ‘major tough’ – and we have a player that, like Kim, is progressing fast.
A pair of runner-finishes, third and four other top-10s have led to a place inside the top-40 of the world rankings and he has progressed from his opening two events of 2023 to finish tied-fourth at Torrey Pines, one of the classic ball-striking courses.
Ranking fourth for iron play and tee-to-green last time suggests he can attack these pins with relish, something he can build on after the usual quality driving, whilst an overall rating of 14th for greens-in-regulation over the past three months will give the opportunity for aggressive putting, something he showed in that victory alongside Tom Hoge.
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Over in Singapore, the DP World Tour join the Asian Tour at ‘The Beast’, a 7400-yard course with huge undulations, and water hazards to catch out the more enthusiastic of drivers.
With little, in fact nothing, to go on for European Tour students, ante-post stakes will be lower than usual and punters, like the players, will surely learn a lot as we go through halfway. This could be a great event for betting in-running – keep eyes peeled on the Bet Victor golf page.
It’s churlish to criticise Ryan Fox for not exploiting an opening top five last week, but after a first round 67, Ras did look open for a Fox saunter across a course that was certainly tighter than we had seen before, but had enough links-like characteristics to be right up his street.
11th is a strong finish, but at around 18/1 I need more, as I do if taking a couple of points less about favourite Robert MacIntyre.
Instead, start the card with the consistent Adrian Otaegui, who may not have the latent power of the other pair but has a guile to his game that might be a sneaky factor around a course that looks like it needs careful handling.
Winner of two match-play scenarios, he proved he could win a standard stroke-play with a win in poor conditions in Scotland, before showing the highest level of skill last October.
Coming off the LIV Golf bench, the 30-year-old (it’s that age again, the supposed peak of a golfer) won around Valderrama in record score and by a record-equalling margin of six shots, putting up figures rarely seen around what is a tough track.
It would have been almost impossible to recreate those numbers week-in week-out, but he hasn’t let his iron play slip, ranking an average of 10th for eight of his last nine outings – I’ll ignore Dubai as it was such an anomaly.
Add that to a set of scrambling stats that have the Spaniard inside the top 14 for 11 recent starts and a top-five rating for accuracy off the tee and we have a player that offers far more than hit-it-and-find-it. If this is a high scoring event, Otaegui’s placing could be valuable.
Back the four-time winner up with two maidens.
Matt Jordan has always been on the radar, particularly in links conditions, and he’s the potential value from the bigger hitters.
A pair of top-fives in Himmerland reads well, even if he should have finished better after a third round 62, whilst efforts in Foshan, Qatar and Portugal hint to being suited by this test, the middle of those the scene of a final round collapse after making his way to the front in difficult conditions once again.
The 27-year-old relishes a grind, something he’ll find over the next few days, but he makes the plan due to an upturn in putting form, something that was his nemesis over the last couple of seasons.
The trio of events since the start of the year have seen the Englishman steadily improve on the greens, finding half-a-shot, three-quarters and now over three shots on the field through Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ras. Laguna National might have elements of all the places Jordan thrives, and I’ll take that chance.
Over to another Matt to complete the plan, this time Frenchman Matthieu Pavon.
Taking a look at the 30-year-old’s best form, he was third at the links-dominated Scottish Open in 2017, runner-up alongside Lucas Bjerregaard to Thomas Pieters in Portugal, and split Jon Rahm and Min Woo Lee in Spain.
Top that with a runner-up in Mauritius, and a fifth place at the same place in 2017, both amongst big-hitters, as well as a silver medal at Foshan, and the two-time Alps Tour winner builds up a profile that should relish a test like Laguna National’s toughest track.
Over three months Pavon ranks in seventh place for total driving and top-40 for greens-in-regulation, figures he improved on last week at Ras Al Khaimah, when second in approaches, fifth tee-to-green and top-20 in greens. Take that onto Singapore and it doesn’t take that much to believe he is slightly overpriced in what looks a winnable event.
Recommended Bets:
Phoenix Open
- Patrick Cantlay – 18/1 WIN
- Tom Kim – 22/1 WIN
- Sahith Theegala – 45/1 Each-way
Singapore Classic
- Adrian Otaegui 25/1 Each-way
- Matt Jordan 45/1 Each-way
- Matthieu Pavon 60/1 Each-way
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.