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Opinion & Analysis

2023 Genesis Open: Betting Picks & Selections

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For the second consecutive week, the PGA Tour treats golf fans with another elevated event.

Forget the reasons the increased funds and prize-money came about, we get the cream of the crop again. As Rory McIlroy says, “When I tune into a Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, I expect to see Tom Brady throw a football. When I tune into a Formula 1 race, I expect to see Lewis Hamilton in a car.”

Following Scottie Scheffler’s very professional victory at TPC Scottsdale, the new (again) world number one arrives here alongside the best field ever assembled for the Genesis sponsored event, the previous Northern Trust Open, Nissan Open or even the Los Angeles Open that ran here from 1926 until 1994.

After Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, this event is the first accurate guide we have for the upcoming majors, with previous Masters winners Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Ernie Els and Nick Faldo on the roll-call of Riviera winners. Whilst those may be obvious as class elements, look at J.B Holmes Mike Weir and Craig Stadler as winners of both, whilst Riviera runners-up Vijay Singh, Keegan Bradley and Justin Thomas all have at least one of the four big-ones on the mantlepiece.

This is a tough gig. Narrow fairways, long greens, tough up-and-downs and the much-derided poa anna greens give away the style needed to succeed here – be an Augusta contender, or at least a major-class golfer, or don’t bother.

Main bet – Jason Day

As expected, with such a powerful field, selecting from the top 20 or so is a task. There can really be no arguing against any selection, although it could be argued that Scottie should be closer to the favourite given his seventh place here last year. That top-10, following his maiden victory at the Phoenix Open, was a pre-cursor to his second victory – at Bay Hill – and he seems to act on all grass types apart from Paspalum.

However, after considering no winner since 2018 has been lower than 50/1, it might pay to look away from those on the double-figure border.

It was a tough choice between Max Homa and Jason Day for the main bet, and they remain the two best bets on the card.

However, at double the price of the other, the Aussie gets the vote despite trailing his rival 0-6 in victories over the past four seasons.

Given his correlative form, it’s hard to fathom why the 35-year-old has such poor results around here.

Torrey Pines brings in players such as Homa, Mickelson and Holmes, and yet Day struggles to improve past a best of 62nd in five sporadic starts.

However, given notwithstanding his two victories and five top-10s at the Farmers and three top-five finishes at Augusta, recent form suggests he is well over the personal and injury problems that saw him drop from the top-50 into a ranking outside the top-150 as recently as September last year.

Since then, the 2015 PGA Championship winner has reversed the slide, going on a run of eight events that include three top-10 finishes, a further trio of top-20s and a 21st, that latest of which, a fifth place in Arizona, was his best of the year and the highest finish since last year’s Farmers.

Over the last three months, Day has ranked in the top-20 for total driving, scrambling, putting average, putting total, par-3 and par-4 performance, plenty good enough to be making a strong challenge here.

With four career wins on Poa Anna, his most successful ‘grass type’ it’s tough to see a negative in his CV for this week.

Danger – Max Homa  

Surely a major contender for one of the top PiP payouts (the ‘award’ for social media interaction and other nonsense), 32-year-old Homa is having the time of his life right now, winning five events in his last 45 starts.

Homa now comes to a track that rewards top-class tee-to-green play and about which he says, ” I know the golf course pretty well. I’ve been fortunate to play a few more times since college and it’s the grass I grew up on. Kikuyu, poa annua, it’s very, very comfortable for me.”

Playing a game he notes as “position over perfection” has served the local-born well with his last three event outings showing payout places of 10/1/5, whilst he also brings strong correlative form from both courses used for the Wells Fargo – Quail Hollow and TPC Potomac – and at Silverado, where he beat former Masters winner Danny Willett, and joined Open champion and Masters third, Stewart Cink, on the honours list.

The few events of the 2023 season see Homa’s rank 12th for total driving, 17th for approaches, 14th tee-to-green, 20th scrambling, 18th in bogey avoidance and 16th in putting average.

Whist the Arizona resident made his 11th successive cut at home last week, he has never been the most productive at the raucous venue, and this, more classic course is far more to his liking.

He’s coming down to his bottom-level price nowadays, but when the face fits, there may still be a margin there.

Outsider and Top-20 – Keegan Bradley

There was a temptation to get with tee-to-green merchant Corey Conners, especially given his three successive top-10 finishes at Augusta, but there is a reason he has missed three cuts in-a-row here and his ranking of third from bottom (129 entries) on poa anna gives it away.

Instead, trust 2011 PGA champion Keegan Bradley to make a safe run at his first top 20 here since 2015, a run of four that saw him finish runner-up, 16th, 20th and in fourth place, the first of those a three-man play-off after holing a 20-foot putt on the 72nd hole.

The 36-year-old is yet another former major winner that saw his game desert him for a period, and after just one win in nine years, found himself outside the top 100 before a revival in 2022.

Signs were there a year before when second to Sam Burns at the Valspar, although talk was again of the way he couldn’t close out a chance on the final day. However, fast-forward a few months and he ended last season inside the top-25 of the world after victory at the Zozo (beating another reborn player in Rickie Fowler) had backed up top five finishes at The Players and at the Sanderson Farms. two further top-10 finishes, inclusing at the U.S Open, confirmed that the five-time PGA Tour winner was back to his best.

2023 has been steady, with the highlight of four outings being a fast-closing runner-up to Homa at Torrey Pines where he led the putting stats, and a 20th last week at Scottsdale, having been 11th after round one.

Whilst finishes of 48th,60th and 51st around here over the last four years don’t scream out, Bradley was in third place after round one in 2019, 12th after the same 18 holes of 2021 and 14th at halfway last year.

Expect a lot better and a top-20 at the very least around a course that contributes to his ranking of 38th on these grass types.

Thomas Detry was a name to look out for given he struck the ball beautifully during the last round at Pebble but might need the sighter, whilst Sepp Straka is impossible to read but has a tendency to come from off the pace, as he did when 15th here last year (from 60th at halfway), winning at the Honda and when top-10 at Sawgrass. At around 6/1 he wouldn’t be the worst punt, but with such a strong top dozen, it’s tough to see him get there after a pair of missed cuts.

Recommended Bets:

  • Main Bet – Jason Day 
  • Danger – Max Homa 
  • Outsider – Keegan Bradley 
  • Top-20 – Keegan Bradley 

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Agronomist

    Feb 14, 2023 at 5:42 pm

    Poa annua.

    Seriously?

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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