Opinion & Analysis
2023 PGA Championship Betting Tips: Why Brooks Koepka is primed to win his fifth major
For a while, many considered the USPGA to be ‘bolt on’ major, considered the fourth in ranking, behind the Masters, US Open and The Open Championship.
Despite the roll-call of winners containing the greats (Nicklaus and Woods leading many of the world’s best) the move to May has given the event that boost in profile, coming half-a-dozen weeks after Augusta, and a month before the US Open, itself just a few weeks ahead of The Open.
It remains a bizarre thing to me we are done with the four premier events by the end of July – the tennis Grand Slams run from January to August – and I’m certain we’d have a lot more fun splitting them up down the calendar and in very differing conditions, but the promotion of the FedEx Cup, Ryder Cup years and pressure on broadcasters has led us this way.
Considering the small sample of recent winners since the move, all of defending champion, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka have proven to be elite players. Koepka won the 2017 US Open as the first of four majors, Lefty was winning his sixth major, Morikawa subsequently won The Open a year later while JT won his second major, six years after landing the Wannamaker Trophy in 2017.
There will be plenty of content written about the course, so let’s keep it simple.
After this year’s championship, Oak Hill will be the most-employed course in PGA/US Open history. Changes have been made throughout the years though, with golf.com saying, “The Oak Hill where Snead cashed in big in 1941 was not the same Oak Hill of 1968, where Lee Trevino claimed the U.S. Open, which was not the same Oak Hill of 1980, where Jack Nicklaus ran away with the PGA.”
A revised Donald Ross course, think long short holes, followed by (modernised) long, long holes, sloping greens, and ultimately a choice for the player – try the tough tee shot fraught with danger, or a simplified but shorter route – the lengthening to a 7400-yard par-70 has to favour those that either bomb it off the tee, or are full of quality with their long iron approaches.
The front nine looks to be very much a defending half with a 503-yard par-4, 615-yard par-5 and tough narrowing, closing hole at 480-yard-plus. If they’ve survived the outward half, the course tempts players with the 430-yard 10th, sub-400-yard 12th, par-5 13th, driveable 14th and, 155-yard par-3 15th.
Given the winning scores here of 10-under (Jason Dufner 2013), 4-under (Shaun Micheel 2003) and 6-under by Jack Nicklaus in 1980, as well as the last four PGA Championships (averaging around 6-under for the three May events), this could be a grind.
Sure, driving looks vital, but I’d take a look at total driving with distance an advantage, although, as always, a current strong tee-to-green game with leanings to long irons, looks key.
Given everything said, being one of the elite – or having pretensions to being so – is requisite to winning this grind. Of the last 10 winners, only Mickelson was ranked outside the top-50, with 2018 champ, Jimmy Walker, out of the worlds top 25.
Looking at the top of the market, the results when selecting players with history on par-70 courses of 7300-yard and longer sees Scottie Scheffler with an impressive pair of runner-up finishes, and a worst of 32nd in seven starts. There is no victory, though, which puts him behind the likes of his rival for the number one slot, Jon Rahm, with a win at Olympia Fields and East Lake (Ross design).
Rory McIlroy has an enviable record of three wins at East Lake and a win at Firestone amongst his impressive collection at this range, but he went missing at Augusta and actually looked even worse at Quail Hollow, despite at least making the cut.
Cases are obviously made for the likes of Thomas and Hovland as well and there is no arguing with those that opt for either but I’ve got a funny feeling this might be the day when golf goes a bit crackers.
LIV intruder Brooks Koepka was put off by some adverse commentary during the lead up to the Masters, and again by the pace of play during the final round, but he has that victory at Shinnecock Hills and is a twice two-stroke winner of this event. The Norman-led tour doesn’t have anything like a grind on its menu but the 33-year-old is made for this, with a majors record that reads 35 outings, four wins, four times runner-up, five further top-fives, and four top-10 finishes.
Just before the start of last week’s LIV Tulsa, he spoke to the media.
“Yeah, this week just trying to make sure I tune everything up, get ready for next week. I like the majors. I like the discipline, the mental grind that comes with it all, the focus, and just use this week to get ready.
“That’s a huge thing. I’ve always done it. It’s not always about results the week before, but it’s about making sure that everything is starting to line up and I can see the progress and see where we’re going to be for next week.”
Examining the criteria set for all the players in the top-12 or so of the market, Koepka has the victories at the 7400-yard-plus Shinnecock and 7300-yard Bellerive alongside top five finishes at Baltusrol (2016 PGA), as well as multiple top six finishes at East Lake and Firestone, and has been top five in his only start at the Houston Open (weekend rounds of 65 twice).
Having just announced that he and wife, Jena, are expecting their first child, there is every motivation to put up a solid showing around a course that suits the former world number one in every way.
This event often throws up first-time major winners, and Tony Finau would seem the perfect candidate for another.
Whilst the 33-year-old has not shone in the two PGA’s of this length, that’s more of a surprise than expectation, and of course, both events were before an extraordinary turn of form and confidence that has seen the hugely-likeable big fella win five events in 45 outings.
Amongst those wins, he beat a top-class field at the 2021 Northern Trust (7300-yard par-72) that included the subsequent major winners Cam Smith and Jon Rahm, with two-time PGA champ Justin Thomas five shots off the pace in fourth.
2022 saw three wins, gagging up when back-to-back winner at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage Classic (Ross design) before waltzing clear at the 7400-yard-plus of Memorial Park, Houston.
In between all that, he flew at the end of the Canadian Open to be beaten only by Rory McIlroy, and at the Mexico Open to get bested by Jon Rahm, a defeat he avenged when holding off the world number one at the end of April.
Fifth to Koepka at Shinnecock, he filled the same position behind Rahm at Olympia Fields in 2020 and flew through the field over the weekend at last season’s finale at East Lake.
Tour-tips’ three-month tracker puts Finau in at #7 in the all-round listings, ranking him 17th in total driving, 14th ball-strking, 24th for greens in regulation, 24th scrambling and 31st for putting average. With some severe pressure on par-4 play this week, he ranks in eighth for that discpline and 13th for the longer holes.
In eight tries at this championship, his best run is since moving to this earlier slot (4/8/30 last three years), he’s a different player to the one pre-2020, and he can exploit an elite tee-to-green game, an attribute for which he ranks third over the 2022/23 season so far.
Given a history of injury concerns, it could have been foolish to put up Hideki Matsuyama on Twitter over the weekend, but I’m buoyed by his play over the weekend at the Byron Nelson, recording a combined nine-under for his first two rounds and ranking in the top echelons for approach shots on all four days.
2022 wasn’t great for the 2021 Masters champion, having to withdraw from The Players, Texas Open, 3M, St.Jude and Houston, but, when right, still managed a win at the Sony, and record a closing third at the Byron Nelson, another flying finish at the difficult US Open at Brookline (winner Matt Fitzpatrick at 6-under), and a top-10 at East Lake, where a third-round 63 equalled winner McIlroy, Thomas and Rahm for low round of the week.
2023 has been a year of steady improvement, with his two top-10 finishes (at Torrey Pines and Sawgrass) overlooking that he was ninth after three rounds of the opener in Hawaii, 12th after three rounds in Texas and in fifth place going into the final round at Augusta.
Possibly still carrying the niggle he discussed after his second round, Deki just lacked that confidence to attack on Moving Day last week, when everything stalled after a missed birdie opportunity at the gettable ninth. It was good to see him get revenge on that hole plus four others for a ** under final round and momentum heading onto this week.
The last few weeks have been nothing but an encouraging sign as he bids to add a good finish to his 10/10 cuts at the PGA in all its formats and perhaps relevant, Deki has some experience of Oak Hill when top-20 in 2013, and boasts some low rounds throughout his career at the Ross-designed Sedgefield, home of the Wyndham Championship (form of 3/11/15).
Whilst not the longest driver, the Japanese star struck a final round 61 to win at Firestone in 2017, has three top 10s at East Lake, and a tied-second alongside Dustin Johnson at the 2020 Houston Open, where a weekend 66/63 brought him through from 26th at halfway.
Approach stats for Craig Ranch last week saw him rank sixth, 25th, 23rd and ** for the four rounds, leading to a high status for greens-in-reg. He may need to turn up with more gusto in his driver, but as long as he is fit, there is a percentage there in his locker, something he can easily work with.
Should this get nasty, there are a handful of players that should come to the fore.
Jordan Spieth seems obvious in single-figure winning tournaments, except from his Ross form (one runner-up and 17th at Pinehurst from seven starts). That isn’t the be-all-and-end-all for a player that is a three-time major winner, and coming off a fantastic run of form, but, having pulled out of the Byron Nelson with a wrist injury, I’m looking for clues that all is okay, before piling in for The Open at Royal Liverpool in July.
Justin Rose is a tempter for a high finish after his first win for four years at Bay Hill in February, and he can make up for Lee Westwood’s failure to exploit his good overnight position back in 2013.
It wasn’t the greatest of events, but he won easily and confirmed the promise he showed when ninth at Houston at the end of ’22 (third after three rounds) and when top-20 at Torrey Pines a week before the victory.
The experienced Englishman, who beat Phil Mickelson in a duel at the US Open at the ridiculously tough Merrion, certainly has the game to keep pounding away for par, and proved he has still got the game to compete with the elite when inside the final 10 players after three rounds at the Masters and, most recently, when in second place at halfway at the ‘elevated’ RBC Heritage.
A two-time runner-up at the Masters, Rose is also a 16-time a top-10 major player, with wins at the AT+T/Quickens Loans, Memorial and Torrey Pines to remind us just where he sits amongst the hierarchy.
The 42-year-old now sits at the highest ranking (low 30s) for over four years and it doesn’t take a long memory to remember that a 50-year-old Phil Mickelson won this event just two years ago. I’ll take the chance it’s tough enough out there for Rosey (yeah, I know, Butch, eh?) to land a decent payout on the specials.
Fellow Englishman Tyrrell Hatton is a real head-scratcher as he seems to hate everything, but is blinkin’ top class at this golf lark. He’s recently recorded a fourth place behind Rose at Bay Hill, runner-up at Sawgrass, top-20n at Harbour Town, third at Quail Hollow, all topped with last weekend’s *** at the Byron Nelson, a course that should not have fitted his grinding style of play.
Such was his play at Craig Ranch that he ranked **** ***** and he comes here carrying USPGA form of eight runs, two top-10 finishes and a most recent 13th at Southern Hills, dropping slightly from a halfway position of 10th.
The 31-year-old doesn’t ‘do’ Ross very frequently, but in four outings has a top-10 at Sedgefield and, perhaps more importantly, a top five in Detroit, the latter coming after a run of a win (Bay Hill) and third (lead after three rounds) at Harbour Town. He is absolutely the grinder amongst grinders.
In the end, yesterday’s finish might have just ruined his price, but (since 2006) and apart from Mickelson in 2021, every champion has finished in the top-28 in their event immediately before this major, with seven inside the top five and 11 inside the top-15.
We may need a pair of hardy players come Sunday afternoon, and in Rose and Hatton, we get just that.
Americans have won the last eight PGA Championships, and whilst it’s not hard to see young bucks Taylor Montgomery or Cameron Young getting involved, I’ll turn to 2019 US Open champion Gary Woodland to revive former glories after showing a return to top form over the last 18 months or so.
The form of that victory needs no explanation, beating Koepka, Rose, Rahm and Xander Schauffele by three and six shots, with McIlroy and Stenson further behind. That was to be the highlight of the now 38-year-old’s long career, one that started 16 years ago and containing a next-best major finish of sixth place at Bellerive, a 7316-yard par-70 and home of the 2018 PGA Championship.
Indeed, looking at the Florida resident’s card, all of Woodland’s best major finishes have been within the last five years. Apart from the two efforts mentioned above, he has a fast-finishing eighth place finish at brutal Bethpage Black in 2019 and a back-door 10th at last year’s US Open, all signs that he’ll stick around should it get tough out there for the more finesse style of player.
2022 saw Woodland record top-five finishes at the Honda and at Bay Hill, whilst top-10 finishes at the Texas Open, afore-mentioned US Open and Houston all provide evidence for the wager.
Following a slow start to this year, Woodland found form at Riviera, where he was fifth after three rounds, before a recent run of six cuts that include a 14th place finish at Augusta and at Quail Hollow, where ironically he sat in ninth place going into Payday.
On the three-month tracker, Woodland ranks inside the top 35 over the last three months, based on his high position of fifth for total driving (in eighth for the season overall) 11th for greens-in-regulation and top-35 for both the par-fours and fives. The official season-long PGA Tour stats see him top-25 for tee-to-green, with highlights being top-10 rankings for approaches from sub 100-yards, 150-175 yards and 200+ yards, the latter surely an advantage on this monster.
It’s all not quite good enough to see him lifting the trophy on Sunday, but there is plenty there to think he’ll give a run for a place on the front page, or at worst inside the top-20.
Recommended Bets:
Outright
- Brooks Koepka – Each-Way
- Tony Finau – Each-Way
- Hideki Matsuyama – Each-Way
- Tyrrell Hatton – Each-Way
- Justin Rose – Each- Way
Specials
- Justin Rose – Top Englishman
- Tyrrell Hatton – Top Englishman
- Justin Rose – Top-20
- Gary Woodland – Top-10
- Gary Woodland – Top-20
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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