Opinion & Analysis
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic and British Masters: Betting Tips
Working on tee-to-green figures is a given for any golf punter, but there are a few ways to get there.
Over in Detroit, it may seem too easy to say ‘bombs away,’ but with Bryson, Matt Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Cam Davis and Taylor Pendrith just some of the big drivers that have won or contended, we’ll take that as the metric for success.
British Masters
Back in leafy Warwickshire, the tee to green game is naturally vital, but there have been a variety of ways to get there.
Whether it’s off the tee or via the irons, the leaderboards of the past two runnings have contained nine of the top 10 from peg to short stuff. Enough evidence for me.
Let’s have the ‘simple’ formula of players in some form over the past few weeks, along with form at similar tree-lines or narrower tracks.
Contenders over the past couple of years Sebastian Soderberg, Richie Ramsay, Richard Bland and Guido Migliozzi may total a small sample but all point to form at Crans, Kenya, Valderrama and the AD Links, little surprise to anyone looking for players that thrive on quality ball-striking.
In that regard, Jordan Smith must hold interest even at 18/1. His latest outing resulted in a top-20 at the US Open and followed a brave attempt at regaining his European Open title. Still, I found it tough to split him and Adrian Meronk, two of the best players on the tour so have left them alone.
Not long ago, we might have expected Robert MacIntyre to have been contending for favouritism this week, so at double the price of the Polish star, I’ll take a chance that recent changes will see a return to the sort of form that beat Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Perez and Rory McIlory in Italy in September last year.
Having had the Ryder Cup as his number one target for a while, the significance of that win at this year’s host venue cannot be overplayed. Indeed, recent changes to his coaching staff and caddie can only point to the belief that he has one target in his head.
“It is my main goal, my only goal for the next year,” MacIntyre said after winning in Italy. “I have done it on the golf course.”
He had been doing nothing wrong, but equally nothing outstanding before that second DPWT victory, “but we worked on a few things on Tuesday and Wednesday and I felt so in control of my golf ball this week.”
It’s a similar story coming into the British Masters.
April saw a run of three top-10 finishes, including in Kenya and Korea where, at both, he went off in the final group.
The 26-year-old’s recent improvements, from 68th to 18th in Munich and 80th to 14th at Green Eagle, must surely give him hope for upcoming tournaments, including the Scottish Open and final major of the year.
Last season’s 36th place finish here disguises that he was the only one of the top-10 ranked from tee-to-green that failed to finish in the top-20. Everything fired apart from the putter, with which he lost nearly five strokes on the field.
Runner-up at Hillside in 2019, he has a top-10 around this venue, at Valderrama, Joburg (Bland runner-up, Meronk third) and at the Gary Player Club. It’s a when, not if, and any slight improvement on last week’s gains from the fairway and with the putter will see him right there.
32-year-old Max Kieffer has given his home support much to cheer about when running-up at Green Eagle and finishing third in Muich a couple of weeks later.
Things could have been better for Kieffer, having disputed the lead for much of the European Open, a similar tale to his play-off defeat at the Austrian Open in 2021. That he could compete on a lengthy track that didn’t play to his advantage is a pointer to even better around The Belfry.
A week after the five-hole trial against John Catlin, the German recorded a final round 62 to finish second again, this time in Gran Canaria.
Given Kieffer recently went 16th/5th in Korea and Italy, it’s worth holding onto him when in form. With his stats in rude health – third for driving accuracy, 20th for ball-striking, 34th in greens, and top-30 for putting average, and proven when in form, he goes on the plan.
Guido Migliozzi was a much bigger price when the market opened, but still represents value at 70.1.
The Italian was put in the class of ‘could-be-anything’ after his two impressive victories in 2019, one of which significantly came at the Kenya Open at Karen.
It hasn’t been easy-going since then, but he ran up three times in 2021 – in Qatar (when beaten by a wonder-putt from Antoine Rozner) at Himmerland when thrashed by a rampant Bernd Wiesberger and, in-between, by Richard Bland around here, beaten after having missed a two-putt from a middle distance on the final par-five). The 26-year-old also put up top-10s at Crans and the U.S Open (!) for good measure, whilst a 12th at Karen is no harm.
Guido’s Qatar form links nicely with this week’s defending champion Thorbjorn Olesen, whilst his previous form at Valderrama and the Links give the hope that last week’s 10th is the catalyst for better to come on a more suitable track.
Figures have been trending nicely. Guido had a spurt through April that gave his many supporters real hope. However, after drifting away again, he left Munich recording positives in tee-to-green and putting, and he arrives at a place we know he can play.
I’ll add Ewen Ferguson simply as he is continuing to look too big for a multiple winner.
It is just 14 months since the inexperienced Scot threw away a final day lead in Kenya before winning a grind in Qatar (Meronk third with Justin Harding, a perfect link to all significant tracks, in fifth place).
In August, the 26-year-old waltzed home with a stunning display at Galgorm Castle and would have made it three for the year but for an indescribably brilliant display on the dance floor by Oliver Wilson, whose only previous victory was the Alfred Dunhill Links.
So form ties up nicely, we just need to forgive two recent missed cuts. I can do that.
Fergy’s last eight starts have yielded consecutive top four finishes in South Africa, 10th at the KLM and 14th at Green Eagle, an event at which he held a place in the top-10 for 54 holes. The Scot continues to churn out quality figures for approaches (top-20 for all his last six completed starts) and tee-to-green (plus figures for all six). Should he repeat those, I’m expecting him to leave his two missed-cuts well behind.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat makes no sense stats-wise.
The Thai has had a mixed season, but the best reads well. Alphie has recorded top-six figures for irons and tee-to-green in Singapore (finished 49th), top-10 for both to finish 15th in the Soudal, and eighth for tee-to-green to finish in the top five in the KLM.
It’s clear he has issues away from his irons at the moment, but I can’t forget how he should have won at Wentworth in 2021, and has relatable form at Malaysia, Links, Nedbank and Italy.
It might be an ask on immediate form but it’s in May that he secured back-to-back top-15 finishes in similar company. Back him to do that again.
Rocket Mortgage Classic
Over in Detroit, the defending champion described the course as ‘easy’.
Okay, that’s pretty simple when cruising clear of Patrick Cantlay et al, but with recent rain now making it even easier, think of last week’s form at River Highlands, when softened greens made it a birdie-fest. Who knows what Big Tone will say of it now?
The event itself doesn’t make as much appeal as the one taking place at The Belfry, but I’ll row along with four players that should give us a run.
Up top, it’s tough to split Tony Finau and the red-hot Rickie Fowler.
Finau looks ripe to go well again under even easier conditions than last year’s romp. With three of his five wins coming in 20-under or lower, the drop in grade out of ‘elevated’ status means he has to go well. He would be my choice for those looking for a safe place return at worst.
Another safe conveyance should be Sungjae Im, who drives me a bit mad with his lack of wins, but for whom this drop from the highest grade should be a boost.
Previous to missing three of his last five cuts, the Korean went on a run of four top-10 finishes in five starts before winning a lesser event on his home tour.
Sixth at Sawgrass works well with previous contenders Bryson, Cam Davis, Taylor Pendrith and Cam Young, while the seventh place at The Heritage works with most of those named, plus Patrick Cantlay, of course runner-up to Finau 12 months ago.
Cantlay also ties form in with the Shriners at Summerlin (see the one-two from 2020), the scene of Sungjae’s most valuable victory (Wolff second, with Aaron Wise being another link between the comp courses).
With Wyndham form in abundance, his best game lines up with Si Woo Kim, a Memorial specialist that helps tie in Cantlay again. KIt also brings in Kevin Kisner, a similar short driver, whose form at Sawgrass and Heritage rides nicely alongside two top-10s around the Detroit track.
Fairway-finding should enable Sungjae to attack the pins as he can, and I can see both him and compatriot Tom Kim giving the Koreans plenty to shout about.
Let’s talk about Tom Kim.
If the comp courses are correct, the 21-year-old’s two victories give him more than leading claims.
A five-shot victor over the first selection at Sedgefield, he then followed up with a three-shot victory over Cantlay and Matt NeSmith, a repeat contender at the Shriners.
Last week’s top-40 at the Travelers could have been so much better but for dropping 10 shots at the start of his back nine through rounds one and three.
Of note, however, is Kim’s final round 65, five-under on the card but one that could have been far better, consisting of six birdies and one eagle. That brings back memories of his final round at Detroit on debut last year, when he shot a best-of-the-day 63.
It’s all coming together after a very respectable top-10 at the U.S Open, and whilst Im has to be priced as he is, perhaps Kim deserves to be.
The hugely consistent Brian Harman is too tempting to ignore, particularly after a closing 64/64 had him run-up to Keegan Bradley last week. That wasn’t the first solid effort from a player that surprised me by being #27 in the world rankings.
Placed many times at Harbour Town, Sawgrass, and Sedgefield, Harman is the unsexy player of the world, never really given the respect his consistency deserves but, with similar conditions in front of him this week I’ll take him to overcome a pair of missed cuts over the last two years.
The diminutive 36-year-old has never played badly here, with a pair of 70s and 71s simply not good enough to make the weekend against low scoring. He hasn’t played here since 2020, but he arrives with his irons good enough to rank him in the top-20 for his last three completed starts.
I was tempted by the case for Taylor Pendrith but it lies purely with the driver and I’m not sure the rest of his current game is anywhere near the right form to exploit it. Instead, go for the totally unexposed Kevin Yu.
Chan-an Yu, or Kevin to his friends, qualified status on the KFT via the PGA Tour’s University programme, a complicated system that rewards the very best of college golfers. His full story is here.
That doesn’t really matter. What does is the excellent start he has made to his PGA Tour rookie season and his mid-season ranking of third off-the-tee, 37th for approaches and a combined ninth for tee-to-green.
Scoring-wise, the Chinese Taipei player ranks in sixth for par-4 birdies or better and 14th for the longer holes, expected of someone averaging 308 yards off the peg.
Form is improving too in 2023, an opening 20th in Hawaii followed by 44th at Torrey Pines, seventh place at Pebble Beach and last week’s 49th at River Highlands, dropping from inside the top-10 at halfway. That follows some progressive hints at the end of 2022 when top-20 at the Sanderson Farms and third in Bermuda.
An Arizona graduate, Yu was third in the 2019 NCAA D1 Championship, behind none other than Matt Wolff, and in the same year won the Australian Master of the Amateurs, held at Royal Melbourne, a course that hosted Aaron Wise’s victory three years previously.
Yu’s glaring weakness is the short game but that will come. For now, get with a player for whom there is no visible ceiling and who brings what might be the most vital asset to the table.
Recommended Bets:
British Masters
- Robert MacIntyre
- Max Kieffer
- Ewen Ferguson
- Guido Migliozzi
- Kiradech Aphiebarnrat – Top-20
Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Tom Kim
- Sungjae Im
- Brian Harman
- Kevin Yu
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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