The 2023 Open Championship has arrived. The event will be hosted by Royal Liverpool, or “Hoylake” which has hosted The Open 12 times before. The course will look a bit different than it did when we saw it last (2014), but the recipe should remain the same. Players will need to keep it in the fairway to succeed and avoid the penalty areas and thick fescue at all costs. 

In the past five editions of the Open Championship, there have been seven first-round leaders or co-leaders. Of the seven, five started their rounds in the morning wave, while two started in the afternoon. In the last two Open Championship at Hoylake, five players shot 68 or better, and all five had morning tee times. McIlroy held the solo first-round lead at -6 and ended up winning the claret jug. The first-round leader, Graeme McDowell, also shot -6 on Thursday in 2006. 

As of now, the winds don’t look to favor any starting time. The wind will be blowing 10-12 MPH all day with gust about 18-20 MPH. The course will likely be wet on Thursday but rain isn’t expected during play at this time. 

2023 Open Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Dustin Johnson +4000 (FanDuel)

First-Round Tee Time: 1:26 p.m. BST

In all three majors this season, Dustin Johnson has shot his best round of the week on Thursday. He shot 71 at The Masters in round one, 67 at the PGA Championship and 64 at the U.S. Open. Now, he comes into the year’s final major in the best form he’s been in all year.

At the U.S. Open, Johnson gained 11.4 strokes from tee to green, which was 5th in the field. That’s a great sign for DJ, who had a slow start to the season. He carried over the strong play into the two LIV events that have taken place since. He finished 8th at Valderrama and 5th in London. I believe he’s peaking at the right time and will be able to post a score late on Thursday.

Adam Scott +7500 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 9:47 a.m. BST

The last two Open Championships at Hoylake exemplify how Adam Scott feels about the course. In 2006, Scott finished in a tie for 8th place and in 2014 he finished in a tie for 5th. He also shot three rounds in the 60’s including a Sunday 66 which was one stroke short of the round of the day.

The course will play a bit different with some changes that were made, but I still believe Scott’s course knowledge will come in handy this week. Royal Liverpool is a strategic golf course, and the Aussie will know when to play conservative and when to be aggressive.

Louis Oosthuizen+10000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 7:52* a.m. BST

Louis Oosthuizen has shown some signs of late that he may be returning to the form that made him a major championship threat during the 2021 season. He finished in 4th place at LIV London on a golf course that suits his game, and I believe Hoylake should be a strong course fit for Oosthuizen as well.

Louis is a former Champion Golfer of the Year (2010) and has two top-3 finishes in The Open since then. South Africans Ernie Els and Charl Schwartzel have been factors on the leaderboard in 2006 and 2014. I believe it’s Louis’ turn in 2023.

Branden Grace +11000 (Bet365)

First-Round Tee Time: 6:35 a.m. BST

If Louis Oosthuizen isn’t the South African that gets in the mix this week, then it very well may be his Stinger GC teammate, Branden Grace. The 35-year-old is in the very first group teeing off, which is always a nice bonus for a first-round leader-play.

Grace is 6th on the season-long LIV Golf standings, and although his play has tailed off a bit of late, he’s been one of the best players on LIV since its inception. He’s a very accurate driver of the golf ball, which I believe is going to be pivotal at Royal Liverpool this week. He’s also a great wind player and has a 6th place Open Championship finish back in 2017.

Henrik Stenson +15000 (BetMGM)

First-Round Tee Time: 8:14 a.m. BST

I am extremely high on Henrik Stenson in all formats this week. The 2016 Open Champion is finding form at the right time and will be playing this week with a chip on his shoulder after being stripped of his Ryder Cup captaincy after his decision to join LIV. 

In his last start at LIV London, the Ice Man finished 2nd in fairways hit and 3rd in greens in regulation, which will be the key to taming Hoylake. The course will be incredibly penal for players who are errant both off the tee and on approach to the green, and Henrik’s ability to plot along and play target golf will be a major asset.

Keita Nakajima +20000 (BetRivers)

First-Round Tee Time: 2:26 p.m. BST

Back in 2006, Keiichiro Fukabori from Japan finished one shot back of Tiger Woods’ first-round lead at Hoylake. In 2023, I have my eyes on another Japanese player.

Keita Nakajima was the world’s number one ranked amateur player for a record setting 87 weeks. The 23-year-old has been tearing it up on the Asian Tour recently. He won the ASO Iizuka Challenged Golf Tournament last month to go along with a runner-up finish at Hana Bank Invitational and also lost in a playoff at the Gateway to The Open Mizuno Open. As if that weren’t enough, Nakajima finished in a tie for 3rd at the JAPAN PLAYERS Championship.

Nakajima is scorching hot and has the talent and pedigree to be a factor at Royal Liverpool.