19th Hole

Vincenzi’s FedEx St. Jude Championship betting preview: Tommy ready to deliver the goods

Published

2 years ago

Aug 7, 2023

With the PGA TOUR regular season in the books, it’s time to begin the 2023 FedEx Cup playoffs.

Previously known as the St. Jude Classic and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the event will serve as the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the second consecutive season.

TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tennessee and has been a regular TOUR stop since 1989.

TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,244 yards. The course features Bermudagrass greens and rough. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards, there is potential trouble on almost every hole.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship will play host to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will be a no-cut event.

Past Winners at TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship

Will Zalatoris (-15)

FedEx St. Jude Invitational

2021: Abraham Ancer (-16)
2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)

St. Jude Classic

2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
2017 Daniel Berger (-10)
2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
2015: Fabian Gomez (-15)

5 Key Stats For TPC Southwind

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Southwind to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

TPC Southwind is a relatively short course, and it isn’t necessary to be a long hitter off the tee to compete. In 2020, we saw Justin Thomas win here by gaining 7.7 strokes on approach as opposed to just 2.3 off of the tee. In 2021, Abraham Ancer gained 4.4 strokes on approach and just 1.4 off the tee. In 2022, Will Zalatoris gained 7.7 strokes on approach and just 1.8 Off the Tee. Golfers with all types of skill sets can win at the course, but there is no doubt that Strokes Gained: Approach is the most predictive statistic this week.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+40.0)
Russell Henley (+27.6)
Adam Schenk (+25.9)
Alex Smalley (+25.2)
Hideki Matsuyama (+25.1)

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does factor in approach, but it also includes golfers who are keeping the ball in play in addition to solid approach play. While distance off the tee isn’t the most important factor this week, golfers will get into some serious trouble if they spray the ball off the tee.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+67.5)
Rory McIlroy (+37.5)
Collin Morikawa (+37.4)
Xander Schauffele (+36.8)
Patrick Cantlay (+36.6)

3. Greens in Regulation: Gained

Green in Regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is 59.2% compared to the TOUR average of 65.8%. Golfers who are in control of the golf ball have had a lot of success at the course historically. The scoring should be relatively difficult this week, therefore fairways and greens will be the recipe to success.

GIR Gained Past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+43.9)
Rory McIlroy (+38.7)
Collin Morikawa (+37.5)
Jon Rahm (+35.1)
Alex Smalley (+28.7)

4. Par 4: 450-500

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. There are six holes of this length at TPC Southwind, which is at least double the amount of any other distance range.

Par 4: 450-500 Over Past 24 Rounds

Xander Schauffele (+25.0)
Rory McIlroy (+24.9)
Sam Stevens (+17.6)
Viktor Hovland (+16.2)
Keith Mitchell (+16.1)

5. Bogey Avoidance

TPC Southwind features six holes with bogey percentages above 17.5%. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are all very difficult and will give the field some trouble. With par being a good score on these particular holes, it will be important to target golfers who tend to avoid blemishes on the scorecard.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds:

Tommy Fleetwood (+28.7)
Hideki Matsuyama (+25.8)
Rory McIlroy (+23.9)
Patrick Cantlay (+21.9)
Tyrrell Hatton (+21.7)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%%), GIR Gained (18.4%), Bogey Avoidance (18.4%), and Par 4: 450-500 (14%).

Scottie Scheffler (+2200)
Rory McIlroy (+900)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
Xander Schauffele (+3500)
Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
Jon Rahm (+3500)
Wyndham Clark (+1400)
Tommy Fleetwood (+10000)
Rickie Fowler (+15000)
Tyrrell Hatton (+1400)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Bets

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300, BetRivers)

Tommy Fleetwood is having arguably his best ever season on the PGA Tour but still remains winless in the United States. On the year, the Englishman has six top-ten finishes and four top-five finishes. His play has been even better recently, and he’s only finished outside of the top-ten once in his past five starts.

Throughout his career, Tommy has played well at TPC Southwind when he arrives to the course in good form. He finished 4th in 2019 after a 13th at the Travelers Championship and 2nd at the Open Championship. In 2018, he finished 14th at TPC Southwind after finishes of 7th, 2nd, 12th and 6th in the four starts leading up to the event. When Fleetwood has been mediocre at this course, it’s consistently been when the lead-in form was mediocre as well.

In his past 24 rounds, Fleetwood ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 1st in the field in Bogeys Avoided. In an event that may play relatively difficult, his ability to avoid mistakes should serve him well.

A FedEx Cup playoff victory would be a worthy exclamation point to what’s been a fantastic year for the 32-year-old.

Sam Burns (+4000, BetMGM)

Sam Burns was agonizingly close to winning at TPC Southwind but fell short in a playoff with Abraham Ancer and Hideki Matsuyama back in 2021. Last year, Burns played well at the course yet again, finishing 20th.

The American is rounding into form at just the right time. He’d love to be a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup team and his recent play may make him a contender for one of the final spots. He finished 13th last week at the Wyndham Championship and gained 4.6 strokes on approach and 4.1 strokes putting. Burns is a terrific putter on Bermudagrass and has rolled it really well at TPC Southwind in the past.

I believe a FedEx Cup playoff win would be enough to get Burns a spot on the flight to Rome in a few months, and is a great course fit for TPC Southwind.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000, FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama has been about as easy to figure out this year as “Ice Puzzle 9” but I still believe he is playing better than his recent finishes may indicate. Last week, he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship but still gained strokes on approach and off the tee. He lost 5.8 strokes around the green due to a few plugged balls in the bunker including one that fell back into his own footprint. Matsuyama is typically fantastic around the greens, so I don’t believe the poor performance will follow him to Memphis.

Despite the relative struggles, in his past 24 rounds, Matsuyama ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 5th in Greens in Regulation Gained.

Hideki was also in the 2021 playoff at TPC Southwind with Burns and Ancer, falling just short of a victory. His elite iron play should allow him to contend once again at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Harris English (+11000, FanDuel)

Last week, Harris English showed some life at the Wyndham Championship. After a slow start, he rallied to make the cut on Friday and played even better over the weekend, finishing in 33rd.

Most importantly, English hit the ball great after not having played for a few weeks since the Open Championship. The 34-year-old gained 5.8 strokes on approach, which was his most in the category since the Wells Fargo in May, where he finished 3rd. English somehow lost 3.0 strokes around the green, which impacted his overall score, but was surely an aberration considering he has gained strokes around the green consistently throughout his career.

English boasts some impressive course history at TPC Southwind. He finished 4th in 2021 and 10th in 2017 in addition to his win at the course back in 2013.

If he can build off of his excellent iron play from last week, English could contend this week in Memphis.

19th Hole

‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 4, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.

However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.

Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.

Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”

Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish

— Jenny Shin (@JennyShin_LPGA) August 3, 2025

Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.

Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.

19th Hole

How a late golf ball change helped Cameron Young win for first time on PGA Tour

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 4, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.

Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.

Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.

Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.

“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course. Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”

According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.

“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”

Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.

Check out Young’s winning WITB here.

19th Hole

Rickie Fowler makes equipment change to ‘something that’s a little easier on the body’

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 1, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.

Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.

Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.

The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.

Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”

“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”

Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.

However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.

“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”

Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.