19th Hole
Vincenzi’s Tour Championship betting preview: East Lake specialist to stun favorites at Tour finale
The 2023 PGA TOUR season will come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta with the Tour Championship. The top 30 players left standing in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for the FedEx Cup Championship and huge $18 million payday that accompanies it.
East Lake Golf Club is a par-70 layout, measuring 7,319 yards with Bermudagrass greens. A Donald Ross design, the difficulty this week for players will be managing the fast and undulating putting surface. That said, golfers with varying skill sets can compete at East Lake.
Top 4 on the Leaderboard
| Golfer | Strokes |
| Scottie Scheffler | -10 |
| Viktor Hovland | -8 |
| Rory McIlroy | -7 |
| Jon Rahm | -6 |
Past Winners at East Lake Golf Club
- 2022: Rory McIlroy* (Started at -5)
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay* (Started at -10)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson*(Started at -10)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy* (Started at -4)
- 2018: Tiger Woods
- 2017: Xander Schauffele
- 2016: Rory McIlroy
- 2015: Jordan Spieth
*Strokes-based bonus in effect.
The 2019 campaign marked the first year in which the PGA TOUR introduced a “strokes-based bonus” that gives players with the most FedEx Cup points a stroke advantage relative to the field at the beginning of the tournament.
With the added complication of the handicapped scoring system, the challenge for bettors will be identifying who can get into contention considering where they are beginning the week on the leaderboard. It will take an exceptional week from any golfer to catch the big names at the top of the leaderboard starting with a stroke advantage.
Let’s take a look at several key metrics for East Lake to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Identifying the most predictive measures for player performance this week will be crucial in determining who will claim the FedEx Cup when all is said and done.
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Approach is the most predictive statistic at East Lake Golf Club. Success in this event has come in the form of many different types of golfers, but one of the consistent factors is the winners are putting their approach shots close.
SG: Approach over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+41.0)
- Lucas Glover (+33.8)
- Russell Henley (+19.5)
- Rory McIlroy (+18.5)
- Rickie Fowler (+18.3)
Good Drives Gained
In the past, we have seen some of the best drivers of the golf ball play well at East Lake. Being a long hitter isn’t a requirement, as it’s far more important to hit fairways. The golfers who put the ball in play most often should have a strong chance to compete in Atlanta.
Good Drives Gained over Past 24 Rounds
- Collin Morikawa (+26.3)
- Lucas Glover (+26.3)
- Russell Henley (+24.7)
- Si Woo Kim (+24.5)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+24.3)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass+Lightning)
The difficulty of East Lake will be the speed of the greens. Donald Ross designs are known for having different levels on a sloping green, which makes finding the correct place to land the ball challenging. To be successful, golfers must excel at putting on Bermuda greens with lightning-fast speeds.
SG: Putting (Bermuda+Lightning) over Past 24 Rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+21.2)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+19.4)
- Sam Burns (+16.2)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+10.4)
- Keegan Bradley (+9.0)
Par 4: 450-500
Five of the par-4s at East Lake are between 450-500 yards. Playing these more difficult holes under par will be a good barometer of who has success in this week’s Tour Championship.
Par 4: 450-500 over Past 24 Rounds
- Viktor Hovland (+24.3)
- Rory McIlroy (+23.3)
- Xander Schauffele (+16.3)
- Brian Harman (+16.1)
- Rickie Fowler (+14.7)
Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs
We have seen the same golfers thrive on Ross designs season after season. The requirement for strategic ball placement combined with the undulating greens seems to catch the eye of specific players. It’s important to note the players in this field who play their best golf on Ross designs.
SG: Total Donald Ross Designs over Past 24 Rounds
- Russell Henley (+44.6)
- Taylor Moore (+41.7)
- Xander Schauffele (+38.4)
- Rory McIlroy (34.1)
- Sungjae Im (+28.7)
Tour Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drives Gained (22%), SG: Putting: Bermuda Lightning (18%),Par 4: 450-500: Gained (16.5%), and SG: Donald Ross (16.5%).
- Lucas Glover (+5000)
- Xander Schauffele (+3500)
- Viktor Hovland (+450)
- Rory McIlroy (+330)
- Russell Henley (+11000)
- Scottie Scheffler (+150)
- Rickie Fowler (+8000)
- Tom Kim (+17000)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+6000)
- Brian Harman (+5500)
Tour Championship Best Bets
(With Starting Strokes)
Xander Schauffele (+3500, FanDuel)
Chasing down Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy will be an extremely tall task, but if anyone can do it, it may just be Xander Schauffele.
Schauffele’s course history at East Lake rivals any golfer in the world, with the possible exception of Rory McIlroy. The 29-year-old has never finished worse than 7th (not including starting strokes) in his six trips to the golf course. He won the event in 2017, and in 2020 he had the lowest score to par of any player in the field.
It’s no surprise that Xander is incredible at East Lake considering how well he fits the course. Hitting fairways is crucial here, and he’s done that very consistently throughout in his career. Additionally in his last 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on lightning fast Bermudagrass greens, 3rd in par 4’s 450-500 yards and 3rd in Strokes Gained on Donald Ross designed courses.
Starting at -3, it will be difficult but not impossible for Schauffele to be the TOUR Championship winner on Sunday evening.
Lucas Glover (+5500, FanDuel)
I believe Lucas Glover offers tremendous value on the betting board this week. It would be a remarkable feat if the 43-year-old were able to win the TOUR Championship but starting at -5 on the leaderboard will give him a fighting chance to do so.
Glover continues to play great golf and is everything you’d want in a player at East Lake. He hits fairways as well as anyone on Tour at the moment and is tied with Collin Morikawa for first in Good Drives Gained in his past 24 rounds. His approach game continues to be excellent as he gained 4.0 strokes on approach at last week’s BMW Championship.
The two courses Glover has won on recently have a strong correlation to East Lake. Sedgefield Country Club is a Donald Ross design that is relatively short and features fast Bermudagrass greens. TPC Southwind is another course that isn’t overwhelmingly long and has similar Zoysia fairways to East Lake, which is something we don’t see all that often on the PGA Tour.
If Glover is able to end his season with a win at the TOUR Championship, it would be one of the best stories ever in golf. I wouldn’t put it past him.
19th Hole
‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish
An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.
However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.
Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.
Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”
Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish
— Jenny Shin (@JennyShin_LPGA) August 3, 2025
Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.
Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.
Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.
Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.
Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.
Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.
“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course. Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”
According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.
“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”
Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.
Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.
Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.
Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.
The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.
Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”
“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”
Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.
However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.
“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”
Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.
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