19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting preview: Big names ready to pounce at Bay Hill

Published

1 year ago

Mar 4, 2024

The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club & Lodge to play the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. The event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. However, this year the tournament will be the fourth of eight “signature events” this season, which offer a $20 million prize pool.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par-72 measuring 7,454 yards featuring Bermudagrass greens. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

The event being “signature” just about guarantees that all of the top players on TOUR will be in attendance this week. Of the 55 players eligible entering last week, only Tony Finau will not be in the field.

Past Winners at Bay Hill

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
2016: Jason Day (-17)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

5 Key Stats For Bay Hill

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Bay Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Approach is often the most important statistic, and this week will be no different. This is a difficult golf course, and players will be penalized for missing greens in regulation.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

Matthieu Pavon (+1.61)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.31)
Tom Hoge (+1.18)
Adam Scott (+0.93)
Tom Kim (+0.78)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

To compete at Bay Hill, golfers will need an excellent performance off the tee. Distance is important due to the length of the course and its layout, but accuracy is just as important.

We have seen recent events in which golfers can get away with bad tee shots, but Bay Hill isn’t one of those courses. The rough is extremely thick and penal, so saving par after a poor tee shot isn’t likely.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

Rory McIlroy (+1.12)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.69)
Sam Burns (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.67)
Min Woo Lee (+0.66)

3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Fast)

A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. The Bermuda putting surfaces will be some of the fastest players see all season long.

SG: Putting (Bermuda and Fast) over past 24 rounds:

Mackenzie Hughes (+1.08)
Xander Schauffele (+0.93)
Harris English (+0.82)
Eric Cole (+0.77)
Adam Svensson (+0.69)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

While ball-striking is in part off the tee and approach, I want the total tee-to-green package built into the model this week as it will take a well-rounded effort from tee to green to get it done at Bay Hill.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

Matthieu Pavon (+2.01)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.00)
Xander Schauffele (+1.38)
Adam Scott (+1.28)
Corey Conners (+1.21)

5. Strokes Gained: Florida

With certain players favoring different regions of the country, I’m once again going to incorporate Strokes Gained: Total in the state of Florida.

SG: Florida Over Past 36 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+2.10)
Viktor Hovland (+1.87)
Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
Justin Thomas (+1.68)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.62)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed above — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (25%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Lightning (18%), SG: Ball Striking (20%) and SG: Florida (12%).

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Adam Svensson
Sam Burns
Kurt Kitayama
Corey Conners
Justin Thomas
Cameron Young
Wyndham Clark
Tom Kim

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Rory McIlroy +900 (DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy is coming off a T22 finish at the Cognizant Classic where he led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+6.44) and also gained 1.6 strokes on approach. Rory has played sparingly so far this season, so the solid finish last week in Florida was a good way for the Northern Irishman to gain some momentum heading into the signature event at Bay Hill.

Rory has been absolutely spectacular at Bay Hill throughout his career. In his last seven trips to the course, the four-time major champion is yet to finish worse than 13th. He won the event in 2018 and has finished 4th in 2017, 5th in 2020, and runner-up last season.

In his past 24 rounds, Rory ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (by a significant margin), 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida and 6th in Strokes Gained: Putting on firm and fast Bermudgrass greens.

Thus far in 2024, the big names haven’t been winning on the PGA Tour. I believe that changes with a Rory McIlroy victory at one of the world’s most iconic courses.

Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (FanDuel)

Tommy Fleetwood has played great golf in the state of Florida throughout his career. The Englishman has eight career top-10 finishes in the Sunshine State, including three of them at Bay Hill (2017, 2019 and 2021).

Although Tommy hasn’t been known as a “winner” in the United States throughout his career, it seems as if the 33-year-old turned a last season. He had ten top-ten’s worldwide including some encouraging results in big events such as T5’s at the Wells Fargo Championship and the U.S. Open. He’s also started 2024 similarly to how he played in 2023, winning the Dubai Invitational back in January. In his most recent start, Fleetwood finished 10th at the Genesis Invitational.

Tommy may have never won on American soil, but he’s taken his game to another level. He’s now one of the best players on the PGA Tour and a tough scoring, windy event in Florida would be a perfect scenario for Fleetwood to finally get that first victory in the United States.

19th Hole

‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 4, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.

However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.

Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.

Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”

Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish

— Jenny Shin (@JennyShin_LPGA) August 3, 2025

Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.

Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.

19th Hole

How a late golf ball change helped Cameron Young win for first time on PGA Tour

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 4, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.

Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.

Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.

Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.

“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course. Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”

According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.

“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”

Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.

Check out Young’s winning WITB here.

19th Hole

Rickie Fowler makes equipment change to ‘something that’s a little easier on the body’

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 1, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.

Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.

Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.

The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.

Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”

“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”

Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.

However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.

“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”

Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.