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Vincenzi’s 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship betting preview: Rory ready to roll again in FedEx Cup playoffs

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With the PGA TOUR regular season in the books, it’s time to begin the 2024 FedEx Cup playoffs.

Previously known as the St. Jude Classic and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the event will serve as the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the third consecutive season. 

TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tennessee and has been a regular TOUR stop since 1989.

TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,244 yards. The course features Bermuda grass greens and rough. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards, there is potential trouble on almost every hole.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship will play host to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will be a no-cut event.

Past Winners at TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • 2023: Lucas Glover (-15)
  • 2022: Will Zalatoris (-15)

FedEx St. Jude Invitational

  • 2021: Abraham Ancer (-16)
  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)

St. Jude Classic

  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
  • 2017 Daniel Berger (-10)
  • 2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
  • 2015: Fabian Gomez (-15)

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For TPC Southwind

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Southwind to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

TPC Southwind is a relatively short course, and it isn’t necessary to be a long hitter off the tee to compete. In 2020, we saw Justin Thomas win here by gaining 7.7 strokes on approach as opposed to just 2.3 off of the tee. In 2021, Abraham Ancer gained 4.4 strokes on approach and just 1.4 off the tee. In 2022, Will Zalatoris gained 8.7 strokes on approach and last year Lucas Glover gained 4.0. Golfers with all types of skill sets can win at the course, but there is no doubt that Strokes Gained: Approach is the most predictive statistic this week.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.72)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.23) 
  3. Xander Schauffele (+1.19)
  4. Tom Hoge (+0.89) 
  5. Collin Morikawa (+0.89) 

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does factor in approach, but it also includes golfers who are keeping the ball in play in addition to solid approach play. While distance off the tee isn’t the most important factor this week, golfers will get into some serious trouble if they spray the ball off the tee.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.23) 
  2. Xander Schauffele (+1.65)
  3. Jhonnatan Vegas (+1.52)
  4. Collin Morikawa (+1.51) 
  5. Rory McIlroy (+1.39

Greens in Regulation Percentage

Green in Regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is 59.8% compared to the TOUR average of 65.8%. Golfers who are in control of the golf ball have had a lot of success at the course historically. The scoring should be relatively difficult this week; therefore fairways and greens will be the recipe to success.

GIR % Past 24 rounds:

  1. Jhonnatan Vegas (74.5% 
  2. Ben Griffin (72.2%)
  3. Erik Van Rooyen (72.0%)
  4. Xander Schauffele (72.0%) 
  5. Scottie Scheffler (71.8%) 

Course History

This statistic will incorporate players who’ve done well at TPC Southwind in recent editions of the tournament. 

Course History Over Past 36 Rounds:

  1. Russell Henley (+2.27)
  2. Sungjae Im (+2.22)
  3. Billy Horschel (+2.05)
  4. Cameron Davis (+1.98)
  5. Byeong Hun An (+1.78)

Bogey Avoidance

TPC Southwind features six holes with bogey percentages above 17.5%. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are all very difficult and will give the field some trouble. With par being a good score on these particular holes, it will be important to target golfers who tend to avoid blemishes on the scorecard.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (9.3%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (11.6%)
  3. Jhonnatan Vegas (12.3%)
  4. Aaron Rai (12.7%) 
  5. Collin Morikawa (12.7%)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Ball Striking (23%%), GIR Gained (18.4%), Bogey Avoidance (18.4%), and Course History (14%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Scottie Scheffler
  3. Sungjae Im
  4. Jhonnatan Vegas
  5. Russell Henley
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Collin Morikawa
  8. Ludvig Aberg
  9. Corey Conners
  10. Shane Lowry

2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks

Rory McIlroy +900 (FanDuel)

Throughout his career, Rory McIlroy has arguably been the best player in the world in the FedEx Cup playoffs. The Northern Irishman is tied with Dustin Johnson for the most wins in FedEx Cup history with six.

McIlroy has had success at TPC Southwind, finishing in the top 10 in three of his past six starts. Last year, he finished in a tie for 3rd, finishing one shot outside of the playoff between Lucas Glover and Patrick Cantlay.

Since the beginning of May, Rory has only finished outside of the top-15 once, and that was when he got a bad weather draw at The Open Championship. In that stretch, he’s won and had an addition four top-5 finishes. He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight consecutive starts and on approach in six of eight, with the two outliers being in Scotland.  In his past 24 rounds, McIlroy is 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 9th in Bogey Avoidance.

Winning majors has proven to be difficult for McIlroy over the past decade, but winning FedEx Cup events has not. The 35-year-old feels due for one more win this season and I believe it may come this week when the golf world has overlooked him after the emergence of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.

Adam Scott +5500 (FanDuel)

Adam Scott has had a strong final month leading into the FedEx Cup playoffs. The veteran finished 2nd at the Genesis Scottish Open and followed the performance up with a tied for 10th place finish at the Open Championship. At the Renaissance Club, the Australian gained 2.7 strokes on approach and 4.4 strokes off the tee and continued the positive play at Royal Troon, gaining strokes across the board in all significant statistical categories. 

Over those two starts, Scott was significantly better off the tee than he has been over the past few years. Prior to the Scottish Open, he switched to the new Titleist GT driver and new Diamana WB shaft, which seemingly paid immediate dividends. This is a great sign for the Aussie at a course like TPC Southwind with danger lurking on many holes.

Heading into this week’s event, Scott sits at 46th on the FedEx Cup points list, meaning he needs a strong performance to get into next week’s BMW Championship. Over his past 36 rounds, Scott has been a strong player in the FedEx Cup playoffs, ranking 13th in the field. He has had success at TPC Southwind as well, finishing in a tie for 5th here in 2022 to go along with a tie for 10th in 2017.

Scott hasn’t won since 2019 but is playing some great golf and I believe has what it takes to win a big event if he finds himself in contention over the weekend.

 

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19th Hole

‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish

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An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.

However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.

Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.

Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”

Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.

Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.

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19th Hole

How a late golf ball change helped Cameron Young win for first time on PGA Tour

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Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.

Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.

Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.

Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.

“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course.  Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”

According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.

“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”

Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.

Check out Young’s winning WITB here.

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19th Hole

Rickie Fowler makes equipment change to ‘something that’s a little easier on the body’

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Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.

Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.

Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.

The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.

Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”

“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”

Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.

However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.

“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”

Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.

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