19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Tour Championship betting preview: East Lake specialist to chase down leaders

Published

12 months ago

Aug 26, 2024

The 2024 PGA Tour season will come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta with the Tour Championship. The top 30 players that remain in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for the FedEx Cup Championship and the huge $25 million payday that accompanies it.

East Lake Golf Club is a par-70 layout, measuring 7,319 yards with Bermudagrass greens. A Donald Ross design, the difficulty this week for players will be managing the fast and undulating putting surface. That said, golfers with varying skill sets can compete at East Lake.

Top 10 on the Leaderboard

1.) Scottie Scheffler -10

2.) Xander Schauffele -8

3.) Hideki Matsuyama -7

4.) Keegan Bradley -6

5.) Ludvig Aberg -5

6.) Rory McIlroy -4

7.) Collin Morikawa -4

8.) Wyndham Clark -4

9.) Sam Burns -4

10.) Patrick Cantlay -4

Past Winners at East Lake Golf Club

2023: Viktor Hovland* -27(started at -8)
2022: Rory McIlroy* -21 (started at -4)
2021: Patrick Cantlay* -21 (started at -10)
2020: Dustin Johnson* -21 (started at -10)
2019: Rory McIlroy* -18 (started at -5)
2018: Tiger Woods -11
2017: Xander Schauffele -12
2016: Rory McIlroy -12
2015: Jordan Spieth -9

*Strokes-based bonus in effect.

The 2019 campaign marked the first year in which the PGA TOUR introduced a “strokes-based bonus” that gives players with the most FedEx Cup points a stroke advantage relative to the field at the beginning of the tournament.

With the added complication of the handicapped scoring system, the challenge for bettors will be identifying who can get into contention considering where they are beginning the week on the leaderboard. It will take an exceptional week from any golfer to catch the big names at the top of the leaderboard starting with a stroke advantage.

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For East Lake

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for East Lake to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Identifying the most predictive measures for player performance this week will be crucial in determining who will claim the FedEx Cup when all is said and done.

Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Approach is the most predictive statistic at East Lake Golf Club. Success in this event has come in the form of many different types of golfers, but one of the consistent factors is the winners are putting their approach shots close.

SG: Approach over Past 24 Rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+1.64)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.44)
Corey Conners (+1.07)
Tom Hoge (+0.97)
Rory McIlroy (+0.82)

Good Drive Percentage

In the past, we have seen some of the best drivers of the golf ball play well at East Lake. Being a long hitter isn’t a requirement, as it’s far more important to hit fairways. The golfers who put the ball in play most often should have a strong chance to compete in Atlanta.

Good Drive Percentage over Past 24 Rounds:

Collin Morikawa (88.2%)
Aaron Rai (86.7%%)
Sepp Straka (86.1%)
Tommy Fleetwood (85.4%)
Scottie Scheffler (85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass+Fast)

The difficulty of East Lake will be the speed of the greens. Donald Ross designs are known for having different levels on a sloping green, which makes finding the correct place to land the ball challenging. To be successful, golfers must excel at putting on Bermuda greens with fast speeds.

SG: Putting (Bermuda+Fast) over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.97)
Sam Burns (+.82)
Wyndham Clark (+.67)
Mathieu Pavon (+.66)
Robert MacIntyre (+.65)

Course History

Over the years, course history has played a large role at East Lake.

Course History over Past 36 Rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.32)
Justin Thomas (+1.32)
Viktor Hovland (+1.29)
Russell Henley (+1.07)

Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs

We have seen the same golfers thrive on Ross designs season after season. The requirement for strategic ball placement combined with the undulating greens seems to catch the eye of specific players. It’s important to note the players in this field who play their best golf on Ross designs.

SG: Total Donald Ross Designs over Past 36 Rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.21)
Rory McIlroy (+1.91)
Russell Henley (+1.89)
Viktor Hovland (1.84)
Aaron Rai (+1.79)

Tour Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (28%), Good Drive Percentage (23%), SG: Putting: Bermuda Fast (18%), Course History (15%), and SG: Donald Ross (15%).

Xander Schauffele
Russell Henley
Viktor Hovland
Rory McIlroy
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Tony Finau
Scottie Scheffler
Tommy Fleetwood
Aaron Rai

Tour Championship Picks

(With Starting Strokes)

Rory McIlroy +2000 (DraftKings)

There isn’t a golfer on TOUR who can compare to Rory McIlroy when it comes to success at the Tour Championship. In his past nine trips to East Lake, he has finished outside the top seven only twice. The 35-year-old now has three Fed Ex Cup Championships on his résumé and is the only player besides Tiger Woods to have won the FedEx Cup more than once.

In the field, Rory ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total per round at East Lake and ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total per round at Donald Ross designs. The first two legs of the FedEx Cup were questionable course fits for the four-time major winner at best. There’s no doubt that East Lake is a course fit for Rory.

McIlroy will start the week at -4 and has a lot of work to do to catch Scottie Scheffler at -10 under par and Xander Schauffele at -8 under par. It will be difficult, but McIlroy has shown twice in the past that he’s up to the challenge. In 2019, McIlroy won the Tour Championship despite starting at -5 for his score. In fact, he won by four strokes that season. In 2022, he won despite starting at -4 for the week.

McIlroy has struggled to win majors over the past ten seasons, but winning FedEx Cup events has never been an issue for the Northern Irishman. In an event that is difficult to bet and stripped of value, McIlroy is one of the few bets on the board that has the ability to cash at reasonable odds.

19th Hole

‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 4, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.

However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.

Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.

Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”

Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish

— Jenny Shin (@JennyShin_LPGA) August 3, 2025

Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.

Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.

19th Hole

How a late golf ball change helped Cameron Young win for first time on PGA Tour

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 4, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.

Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.

Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.

Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.

“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course. Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”

According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.

“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”

Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.

Check out Young’s winning WITB here.

19th Hole

Rickie Fowler makes equipment change to ‘something that’s a little easier on the body’

Published

3 weeks ago

Aug 1, 2025

Gianni Magliocco

Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.

Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.

Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.

The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.

Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”

“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”

Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.

However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.

“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”

Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.