Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Common traits of the most critical holes on the PGA Tour

Published

on

In the past I have written about what I call the “Critical Holes” in a golf tournament. My analysis shows that these are the holes in a tournament that separate the top finishers from the rest of the field.

Most tournament golfers worry most about the most difficult holes on the course, which isn’t the best thing to do. If the most difficult hole on a course has a small deviation in scores, then making a bogey on that hole will likely have a minimal impact on the golfer’s standing in a tournament if most of the golfers are making pars and bogeys. Conversely, if a golfer birdies an easy hole with a low deviation in score, that will not have much of an impact in their standing in a tournament if most of the field is also birdieing that hole.

The issue for non-Tour players is that they do not have the access (nor the time) to input the data and determine what holes separate the best finishers from the rest of the field in any non-PGA Tour event. In order to help combat this problem, I have computed the top-three par-3’s, par-4’s and par-5’s on the PGA Tour where historically the top finishers have gained the most strokes versus the field in those events.

I also examined the top par-3, par-4 and par-5 holes at Augusta National Golf Club and see a similar trend in terms of the design of these holes. I believe that the similar designs at courses from around the world are likely to be “critical holes” for golfers in their tournaments.

The Most Critical Par-3 Holes

TPC San Antonio No. 3: Valero Texas Open

Photo 1

Event: Valero Texas Open
Course: TPC San Antonio
Hole: No. 3
Distance: 213 yards
Average Score: 3.165
Difficulty Rank: 7th

Note: “Difficulty Rank” was calculated based on avg. score in relationship to par against other holes on the course. 

Colonial Country Club No. 13: Crowne Plaza Invitational

Photo 2

Event: Crowne Plaza Invitational
Course: Colonial Country Club
Hole: No. 13
Distance: 190 yards
Average Score: 3.088
Difficulty Rank: 6th

TPC Sawgrass No. 13: The Players Championship

Photo 3

Event: The Players Championship
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Hole: No. 13
Distance: 181 yards
Average Score: 3.150
Difficulty Rank: 5th

Augusta National No. 12: The Masters

Photo 4

Event: The Masters
Course: Augusta National
Hole: No. 12
Distance: 155 yards
Average Score: 3.257
Difficulty Rank: 5th

There are two common traits in each of these par-3 holes.

  • There is water in front of the green
  • The green is not very deep.

If you were to go over the center of each green on these holes, you would find that the No. 3 at TPC San Antonio and No. 13 at Colonial are only about 20 yards deep. No. 13 at TPC Sawgrass is only about 25 yards deep and No. 12 at Augusta is extremely shallow at 12 yards long.

There is a clear distance-control factor involved with these holes and if the player misses short they are in the water and if they miss long they are going to have a difficult time saving par. Playing these holes well requires quality contact with the ball and a little bit of luck.

The Most Critical Par-4 Holes

Riviera Country Club No. 18: Northern Trust Open

Photo 5

Event: Northern Trust Open
Course: Riviera Country Club
Hole: No. 18
Distance: 475 yards
Average Score: 4.121
Difficulty Rank: 6th

TPC Las Colinas No. 18: HP Byron Nelson Championship

Photo 6

Event: HP Byron Nelson Championship
Course: TPC Las Colinas
Hole: No. 18
Distance: 423 yards
Average Score: 4.249
Difficulty Rank: 3rd

Muirfield Village No. 18: The Memorial

Photo 7

Event: The Memorial
Course: Muirfield Village
Hole: No. 18
Distance: 444 yards
Average Score: 4.338
Difficulty Rank: 1st

Augusta National No. 18: The Masters

Photo 8

Event: The Masters
Course: Augusta National
Hole: No. 18
Distance: 465 yards
Average Score: 4.220
Difficulty Rank: 8th

We see that the common trait on these critical Par-4 holes is that they are fairly narrow dogleg holes. This requires not only a drive that is hit a good distance, but one that is positioned well enough to allow the golfer a clear angle into the green.

No. 18 at TPC Las Colinas is a bit different in that the angle to the green is not as critical if the golfer finds the fairway. It also has the penalizing water, however, and the fairway bunker that is right in line with where drives tend to end up — along with the woods to the right of the fairway.

The Most Critical Par-5 Holes

TPC Boston No. 2: Deutsche Bank Championship

Photo 9

Event: Deutsche Bank Championship
Course: TPC Boston
Hole: No. 2
Distance: 542 yards
Average Score: 4.861
Difficulty Rank: 15th

Quail Hollow No. 16: Wells Fargo Championship

Photo 10

Event: Wells Fargo Championship
Course: Quail Hollow
Hole: No. 16
Distance: 532 yards
Average Score: 4.678
Difficulty Rank: 16th

Bay Hill No. 6: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Photo 11

Event: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Course: Bay Hill
Hole: No. 6
Distance: 555 yards
Average Score: 4.772
Difficulty Rank: 15th

Augusta National No. 15: The Masters

Photo 12

Event: The Masters
Course: Augusta National
Hole: No. 15
Distance: 530 yards
Average Score: 4.750
Difficulty Rank: 16th

The commonalities on these par-5’s are obvious:

  1. Dogleg design
  2. Reachable in two shots
  3. Water on the hole

Remember, the critical holes are not about their level of difficulty, but rather the variance in scores. No. 15 Augusta is a classic example as it is a hole that most players in the field can eagle, but it can also lead to a bogey or even a double bogey due to the dogleg design and the water up by the green.

Understanding that score variance is more critical that hole difficulty and examining these general design principles that create a high score variance can help you focus on the holes that will have a larger impact on your performance in your next tournament.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Fedidiah

    Jan 27, 2015 at 2:36 pm

    Richie you’re so adorable

  2. Joe C

    Jan 26, 2015 at 2:36 pm

    Interesting analysis. I also noticed on the par 4’s that there is also significant elevation change from tee to green. By the way, the hole you show from Quail Hollow is actually number 7, not 16.

    • Richie Hunt

      Jan 27, 2015 at 9:46 am

      Thanks, Joe. I’m familiar with #18 at ANGC and #18 at Muirfield Village, but not the other par-4’s. As far as Qual Hollow goes, IIRC, the Tour changes the routing so the nines are switched around and that’s why #7 is #16.

  3. Josh

    Jan 26, 2015 at 11:47 am

    Can you add the std deviation from average for each hole? Since you are talking score variation it would be nice to see that compared against the hole’s average score.

  4. Preston

    Jan 25, 2015 at 10:15 am

    I’m with Adam. I like the discussion on the holes, but I don’t understand the ranking or difficulty system you are using.

    • Richie Hunt

      Jan 26, 2015 at 11:19 am

      The difficulty ranking listed under each hole is the difficulty for that hole on that particular golf course.

      For example, 18 at Augusta is the 8th most difficult hole at Augusta.

      However, when it comes to the deviation in scores, 18 at Augusta has the largest deviation of scores for any of the par-4’s. That means players are likely to have a wider range of scores (we’ll say birdie to double bogey) than the other par-4’s.

      Let’s say you’re playing in a tournament and you want to figure out what holes to focus on. Instead of looking at the hardest holes, you really want to look at the holes with the largest deviation in score.

      If a very hard hole is yielding bogeys (low deviation), then you making a bogey on that hole is not a big deal. But if a hole is yielding a large deviation from say birdie to double bogey, then the lowest scores in that tournament will very likely play that hole well because that is how they are gaining strokes on the field.

      All this shows is that some of the holes on Tour that have the largest deviation in score are often times not the most difficult or easiest hole on that course.

      Since most golfers don’t have access (or the time) to figure out what holes have the largest deviation in score, here are some of the holes on Tour that have the largest deviation in score and here’s the commonalities in their design features.

  5. Richie Hunt

    Jan 24, 2015 at 3:32 pm

    Thanks for the inquiry, Adam. The ranking is the difficulty of that hole on that course. So, the par-5 15th hole at August ranks 16th in difficulty (3rd easiest) hole at Augusta.

    The idea behind this was to show not only the design of some of the more critical holes on Tour, but also to show that their difficulty ranking isn’t always the strongest or the weakest because it is more about score deviation instead of hole difficulty.

    Hope this helps. If not, feel free to e-mail me at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com and I’ll try to explain better.

  6. adam

    Jan 24, 2015 at 11:48 am

    Nice article but I don’t understand the logic used to determine the ranks, can you include in the article? You have a few duplicates and missing numbers in between, I assume from ties but can’t figure out that ranking system since the average scores are all different. There’s also only 12 holes ranked but you go up to 16. Just confused. Maybe it’s too early.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

Published

on

PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

Continue Reading

Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

Published

on

In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

Published

on

This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

Continue Reading

Announcement

Our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use have been updated as of January 29th, 2026. Please review the updated policies here Privacy Policy | Terms of Use. By continuing to use our site after January 29th, 2026, you agree to the changes.

WITB

Facebook

Trending