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Opinion & Analysis

Who will win the 2016 FedEx Cup, and why?

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Last week the GolfWRX Editors asked me, “Are there any statistical similarities between the FedEx Cup winners since the advent of the Playoff format?” Lot’s of work to do but, if I do it, could I use it to predict this year’s winner?

Background

The PGA Tour’s unique FedEx Cup playoff system, and large $10 million prize, was devised in 2005 specifically to incentivize Tiger Woods to play in more events. Tiger’s immense popularity had divided the PGA Tour into two tours: the Big Tour, made up of the events in which Tiger played, and the rest. Evidently, there was a large enough divide in TV ratings that it was hard to lure sponsors to non-Tiger events. Launched in 2007, the strategy worked! Tiger complied, and won two of the first three FedEx Cups.

Post-Tiger, the FedEx Cup continues to serve its purpose. Top players plan their schedules to finish in the top 125 in the FedEx Cup rankings and play in enough events to qualify for The Playoffs, but also conserve energy for the grind of the four-event, five-week playoff series. This year’s addition of the Ryder Cup in Week 6 no doubt played a role in Jordan Spieth’s decision to skip both the Olympics and his defense of the John Deere Championship.

My Research

Yes, there are some similarities in the FedEx Cup winners.

Players don’t need to win the Tour Championship in order to win the FedEx Cup, but it helps. Seven of the nine won the Tour Championship (the final event) to win the Cup. Exceptions occurred in 2009, when Tiger finished second in the Tour Championship but won the Cup, and in 2008, when Vijay Singh finished 22nd in the final event but still won the Cup. Vijay had won the first two playoff events (The Barclays and the Deutsch Bank Championship), giving him enough points to win WITHOUT even playing in the final event. The next year, a rule change was made to prevent that from happening again.

A prior win in their winning FedEx Cup season is evidently important.

  • Eight of the nine had at least one PGA Tour win prior to the Tour Championship. Jordan Spieth had a phenomenal 2015 with five prior wins, and Tiger showed exactly why the FedEx Cup was created with six prior wins in each of his winning years.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.07.35 PM

It helps to be ranked near the top in FedEx Cup points going into the Tour Championship. Six of the nine winners were ranked first or second, except:

  • Jim Furyk was ranked No. 11 in 2010.
  • Bill Haas was ranked No. 25 in 2011.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.01.50 PM

What about performance ranking in the two major parts of the game going into the final event?

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.00.56 PM

  • Strokes Gained Putting: On average 40 percent of the game.
  • Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: The other 60 percent of the game, or everything other than putting.
  • Seven of nine winners were ranked in the top 5 or better on the PGA Tour in one or more of these stats leading into the Tour Championship.

My Prediction

I am guessing that one needs to be in the top 15 in FedEx Cup points heading into this week’s Tour Championship to be in a position to win it all. OK, I get it that Bill Haas was No. 25 going in and won. This was a fluke. Heck, if he does not have that last-ditch, miraculous save from the water, he does not win.

First, let’s exclude the three players that did not have a win in the 2015-16 season.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 11.59.38 AM

Next, eliminate those not in the top-10 in one of the two major Strokes Gained performance rankings going into this week’s Tour Championship.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 11.58.48 AM

This leaves FIVE players that fit all the criteria, but only one can win. Here are my reasons for selecting the winner (Jordan Spieth) as well as my thinking on the other four.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 11.57.36 AM

Click to enlarge.

Won’t the Tour Championship be interesting to watch this year? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

For a Strokes Gained analysis of your game, log onto www.shotbyshot.com.

In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Guia

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:55 pm

    JD

  2. ooffa

    Sep 20, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    Hopefully anybody other than Patrick Reed. Oh and Bubba, Anyone else would be fine.

  3. Justin

    Sep 20, 2016 at 11:35 am

    I was thinking along similar lines Peter. I think Spieth would be an “out of nowhere” pick for some people (even though he’s won twice this year) because he wasn’t nearly as dominant this year as last year. It’s very difficult to keep up a string of dominance and that makes Tiger’s run even more remarkable. But I think the time is right for Jordan and he wants it the most. I think Spieth, DJ, Day finish 1,2,3 in that order. The absolute dream scenario for the Tour is that those 3 finish top 3 in any order. Very rarely do your stars all come together to battle it out to the end. It doesn’t happen in any other major sport unless your team happens to make it, and I think that’s why golf is so great.

    • cwt

      Sep 21, 2016 at 2:36 pm

      Haven’t looked at the stats, but it seems like Spieth doesn’t play as well when Day or Dustin are playing well. It kinda feels like he gets overpowered by those two when they are on their games and it gets in Spieth’s head. Certainly would like to see Spieth pull if off with one of those two in contention, but if Spieth is paired with one of them in the last group on Sunday, good luck.

  4. matt

    Sep 20, 2016 at 9:39 am

    Appreciate the analysis but what about no player has ever won back to back FEC. I think Patrick Reed wins it.

  5. Peter Sanders

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:32 am

    Fun to watch. While I like Rory, he has struggled badly with his putting all year. His new putting coach fixed him and obviously pumped his confidence but let’s see if it continues. As you say Spieth has been inconsistent thru this year but I believe very motivated and working into form.

  6. Redx

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:25 am

    Thank you for the analysis Peter.
    Personally I think DJ looks great. Seems to be dismissed only as it’s difficult to win back to back, however, in this case after the week rest the fatigue / expectation factor that usually intrudes in a quest for back to back wins is not present here. DJ Has great claims.

    Likewise I expect J-Day to be ready to go.
    Who knows which Rory will turn up and on these smaller greens complexes Scotty could fire up as a one off

    Personally I think it’s wide open. Can’t wait.

    Overall I think it’s wide open

    • Peter Sanders

      Sep 20, 2016 at 8:35 am

      Redx, very good point about the week off. I considered it and, as you say, chose to dismiss it. Bottom line, I think Jordan is the best putter on Tour.

  7. desmond

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:02 am

    I see Rory over Spieth — Rory changed everything about his putting; Jordan is consistently inconsistent this year. At the same time, I like Spieth, but …

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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