Opinion & Analysis
2017 WGC-Mexico Championship: Odds, Picks, and Props
The world’s top players are headed to Mexico City this week for 2017’s first World Golf Championship. The WGC–Mexico Championship, held away from Trump National Doral for the first time since 2007, is filled with storylines; Dustin Johnson’s first appearance since becoming the World No. 1, Rory’s return from a rib injury, and Henrik Stenson’s first appearance in the Americas since last year’s Deutsche Bank Championship. The first WGC of the year has a list of big-name winners including reigning champ Adam Scott, D. Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods — who holds the 72-hole tournament record with 261 (23-under) at The Grove in 2006. With a field including 49 of the world’s top 50 players, this year’s trophy is truly up for grabs.
The Course
The par-71 Club de Golf Chapultepec comes in at 7,330 yards. It is no stranger to hosting big time events as it was the original venue of the Mexican Open in 1944 and has hosted the event 18 times, as recently as 2014. With tree-lined fairways and undulating greens, accuracy off the tee and ball striking will be at premium. And with plenty of doglegs, the players who can shape the ball both ways will have a major advantage. It’s also important to note that Club de Golf Chapultepec has Poa Annua greens, so those who fair well on the Tour’s West Coast Swing will likely feel comfortable on the putting surface.

In addition to the usual obstacles, players will face a unique challenge here as the course sits almost 8,000 feet above sea level. At that altitude, players can expect the ball to fly at least 10-15 percent longer than usual. It’ll be interesting to see how many players overshoot the green and look down to see if they caught a flyer.
Odds
Past Champs in the field:
- Phil Mickelson (+5000)
- Justin Rose (+2200)
- Patrick Reed (+5000)
- Dustin Johnson (+650)
- Adam Scott (+2800)
Favorites:
- Dustin Johnson (+650)
- Jordan Spieth (+800)
- Rory McIlroy (+1200)
- Henrik Stenson (+1400)
- Rickie Fowler (+1800)
- Adam Scott (+2800)
- Justin Rose (+2200)
- Sergio Garcia (+2800)
- Jon Rahm (+3000)
- Justin Thomas (+3300)
Picks
My Pick: At a course that’s essentially an unknown to the world’s top players, it’s tough to go against the number 1 player in the world. However, I’m going to do just that. My pick this week is Henrik Stenson (+1400). With the elevation effect, the long hitters’ advantage is taken away and it’s likely they’ll have to tee off with woods and irons. Nobody hits a 3-wood with more confidence and accuracy than Stenson. Stenson ranks 7th in Driving Accuracy and 5th in GIR on the European Tour making him a scoring machine with a Stroke Average of just over 68.
Value Pick: I’m going with Jon Rahm as my value pick at +3,000. Generally, I’d go a little further down the favorites list for this pick but I think Rahm has a legitimate chance to win this week. He already has a win and five top 25s in his first full season on Tour and ranks 5th in Shots Gained Off the Tee. The only part of his game that could be considered a weakness is his putting, but, after getting his first win at Torrey Pines, he showed just how comfortable he is on Poa greens.
Long Shot: It’s hard to consider former world number 1 Lee Westwood (+10000) a long shot but, in a field with this kind of talent, that’s exactly what he is. Westwood’s distance off the tee is his biggest knock but at almost 8,000 feet above sea level, that shouldn’t cause him any issues. He’s averaging a sub-70 round on the European Tour and his experience makes him hard to pass on with these odds.
Who to stay away from: Rory McIlroy (+1,200). I never thought I’d say this, but I don’t see McIlroy being a good play this week. He can win anytime he steps out on the course but his rib injury makes me nervous. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ends up with a WD, especially since he’ll be particularly cautious with the Masters only five weeks away.
Props
Will there be a playoff? Yes (+300) No (-450); I’m going with “No” here. My gut tells me someone is going to pull away from the field this week and there have only been two playoffs in this event since it began in 1999.
Winning Margin – Playoff (+300) 1 Stroke (+250) 2 Strokes (+400) 3 Strokes (+500) 4+ Strokes(+300); Like I said, I think someone runs away with this tournament. The course is unknown but it’s going to fit someone’s eye. Someone is going to love this course. That being said, 3 Strokes is my pick. With this type of field nobody is going to win by 10 shots but someone will separate himself.
Hole-in-One – Yes (+135) No (-175); I’m always rooting for an ace and I think we’ll see one this week. With an elite field comes incredible ball striking; players should be firing at the pin on the par-3 17th. Playing at only 172 yards, most players will be using a short iron here.
Henrik Stenson Top 5 Finish (+275); This should be a lock. I’m going with Stenson as the winner but I don’t see how he finishes outside the top 5. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 on the European Tour since July of 2016 and this course should suit his game.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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Dante Demeo
Mar 2, 2017 at 4:17 pm
Wow you couldn’t have been more wrong about Henrik Stenson. Won’t ever be listening to you again.
Nick Ritacco
Mar 2, 2017 at 4:30 pm
Still the first round Dante – plenty of golf left to play. But I’m pretty sure Westwood and Rahm are T-2 and T-4 at the moment.
Alex
Mar 2, 2017 at 5:03 pm
1st and tied for second now! Westwood might take this one!
Tazz2293
Mar 1, 2017 at 7:34 pm
Not gonna watch this tournament
PGA soiled themselves. This tournament should be at Doral
Tazz2293
Mar 1, 2017 at 7:34 pm
I am boycotting this tournament. This tournament should be played at Doral.
PGA soiled themselves on this one.
Gamble Gamble
Feb 28, 2017 at 5:05 pm
Zach Johnson for the win!
Phil
Feb 28, 2017 at 4:00 pm
SHANK! You were 0 for 4 on your genius prop bets from last week. You didn’t even have Rickie on your radar.