Opinion & Analysis
The 20 Players Who Can Win The Masters
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the Green Jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I filtered out Jordan Spieth due to poor iron play during that season. Spieth proved me wrong, but he also proved me right as he didn’t win due to the infamous iron shots he had on the 12th hole. On the other hand, Danny Willett was in my list of players that could win the Masters and he became the new champion.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.
Just like last year, the critical holes at Augusta are still projected to be Nos. 7, 12, 14, 15 and 18. One of the beauties of Augusta is its finishing hole is the most critical hole in the event statistically, while you have all these other holes that are much more picturesque and memorable.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out all first-time attendees. The Masters was only won once by a first-time attendee, Fuzzy Zoeller, in 1979. These 17 players include:
- Brad Dalke
- Toto Gana
- Scott Gregory
- Stewart Hagestad
- Curtis Luck
- Adam Hadwin
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Si Woo-Kim
- William McGirt
- Alex Noren
- Thomas Pieters
- Jon Rahm
- Brian Stuard
- Daniel Summerhays
- Hudson Swafford
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Billy Hurley III
I think this is a good list of first-time players, particularly Rahm, Pieters and Noren. But it’s pretty clear that if a golfer has never played in the Masters, he is at a sizable disadvantage.
I also filtered out past champions that I do not believe can compete anymore. These 10 players include:
- Angel Cabrera
- Fred Couples
- Trevor Immelman
- Bernhard Langer
- Sandy Lyle
- Larry Mize
- Mark O’Meara
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Mike Weir
- Ian Woosnam
The Zach Johnson Debate
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s, his strength. The temperatures are predicted to be in the high-60s and mid-70s this year and unless that changes by 30+ degrees and the wind gusts double I don’t see him having a very good chance to win the event. Along with Johnson, I would also eliminate these short hitters:
- Rafael Cabrera Bello
- Soren Kjeldsen
- Brandt Snedeker
- Jim Furyk
- Steve Stricker
- Roberto Castro
- Matt Kuchar
Even more damning is the players who hit the ball too low, a stat that can be tracked with the PGA Tour’s Apex Height measurement (it’s determined with Trackman). Last year, I eliminated five players who I thought had a trajectory that was too low to win at Augusta. Only one of the five players made the cut, Kevin Na (T55). This year, I’m ruling out these nine players:
- Rod Pampling
- Russell Knox
- Daniel Berger
- Ryan Moore
- Kevin Na
- Paul Casey
- Branden Grace
- Jason Dufner
- Webb Simpson
Furthermore, since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters who had previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s rule them out as well. They are:
- Andy Sullivan
- Byeong Hun-An
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Brendan Steele
I will also filter out the players that missed the cut at Houston. Missing the cut the week prior to an event greatly reduces the odds of winning, as well as finishing in the top-10, the top-25 and even making the cut regardless of the event.
- Adam Scott
- J.B. Holmes
- Henrik Stenson
- Lee Westwood
- Jordan Spieth
Spieth is a hard one to filter out… again. He’s been downright incredible at Augusta National, and his missed cut at Houston seemed more like a fluke than a trend of poor play. I cannot just randomly ignore the fact that he did miss the cut and how traditionally that has greatly reduced the odds of performing well the next week, however, regardless of the golfer.
I also need to filter out players that have performed poorly from the Red Zone (175-225 yards) this year. Simply put, Augusta National is an approach-shot course. For all of the attention the greens and putting gets at Augusta, the winner is usually one of the best approach-shot performers at the event. So, I will eliminate these players:
- Danny Willett
- Ernie Els
- Jason Day
- Vijay Singh
- James Hahn
- Pat Perez
- Kevin Kisner
- Phil Mickelson
- Patrick Reed
- Brooks Koepka
- Scott Piercy
- Kevin Chappell
- Bill Haas
- Chris Wood
- Francesco Molinari
- Marc Leishman
- Yuta Ikeda
There are a lot of names that are difficult to filter out, including Mickelson, Adam Scott and Jason Day, but they have to be filtered out as possible winners given their poor performance this year in the area of the game that really defines winning at Augusta.
That leaves us with 20 players that can win The Masters. I’ve also put their betting odds for winning next to their name:
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6,600)
- Rickie Fowler (+2,000)
- Sergio Garcia (+4,000)
- Emiliano Grillo (+12,500)
- Russell Henley (+10,000)
- Charley Hoffman (+12,500)
- Dustin Johnson (+550)
- Martin Kaymer (+12,500)
- Shane Lowry (+12.500)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1,800)
- Rory McIlroy (+800)
- Sean O’Hair (+30,000)
- Louis Oosthuizen (+5,500)
- Justin Rose (+2,500)
- Charl Schwartzel (+6,600)
- Justin Thomas (+2,500)
- Jimmy Walker (+10,000)
- Bubba Watson (+4,000)
- Bernd Wiesberger (+15,000)
- Gary Woodland (+10,000)
My Top-10 Picks
- Rickie Fowler (+2,000)
- Russell Henley (+10,000)
- Dustin Johnson (+550)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1,800)
- Rory McIlroy (+800)
- Louis Oosthuizen (+5,500)
- Justin Rose (+2,500)
- Charl Schwartzel (+6,600)
- Justin Thomas (+2,500)
- Bernd Wiesberger (+15,000)
Related: The Full List of 2017 Masters Odds
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being realistic opportunities. Later, when I tested the “80%” idea with a radar, it wasn’t 80% at all. For me, and for most golfers I’ve tested, it was more like going above 92 to 96% of max before full swing control started to noticeably drop off.
If you want more distance, there are swing technique changes that can help. See my author profile for previous articles. Technical changes can be dangerous to play with, though. A lot of golfers want consistency too, and it can be disruptive when you constantly change swing thoughts and mechanics.
The low hanging fruit is usually custom fitting, as mentioned above.
From there, if you have a big banana ball swing that’s fairly reliable but you just need more distance, consider swing speed training at Swing Man Golf. If you’re starting from zero, the first level program using driver swings, a radar to measure speed, and simple resistance bands can move the needle quickly to the tune of 12 to 16 mph and 30 to 40 yards, plus what you gain on iron distance as well.
Strategy matters too. For a golfer shooting in the 90 to 100 range, I’ll share a demo I’ve done when golfers have hired me for their golf vacations. I’d play at average golfer speeds and distances, hitting a smooth hybrid off the tee, maybe 190 yards. I wouldn’t aim at the fairway. Instead I’d aim between the biggest trouble, like the center of the tree line. Then I’d cruise a 6-iron about 160 to a safer area short of greenside bunkers or other major trouble. From there it might be a wedge or a simple pitch, depending on hole length. Go middle unless you are almost 100% confident you will keep it on the green by aiming closer. Then it’s a lag putt for par, followed by a tap-in.
It’s not flashy, but if you want to break 90 or 100 more regularly, something that keeps you out of big trouble like this can be super effective.
This is also where a playing lesson can help. If a coach tells you what to do and where to aim, you’d be surprised at how many shots can get dropped just having the coach be your decision maker until you get the hang of it. In some of those cases, you don’t even need to make much if any technical changes. You might already be there with a playable swing. It could just be better decision making that gets you around the course with a lower score.
Okay, I hope something here was useful for you.
Thanks for being with me all these years, and I wish you and your game the best.
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Scott
Apr 10, 2017 at 9:56 am
Your list worked out pretty well.
JNZ
Apr 8, 2017 at 2:44 am
Apart from DJ for obvious reasons, all your top 10 picks made the cut. Pretty impressive!
Miramar
Apr 5, 2017 at 8:54 pm
Jon Rahm, Thomas Pieters, Henryk Stenson, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka, Kevin Kisner, Vijay Singh, Paul Casey
Kurtis
Apr 5, 2017 at 7:41 pm
Has there been a noticeable drop in Paul Casey’s ball flight or is this only based on rounds measured? Asking because I saw he was in last years 20 but not this years.
andrew
Apr 5, 2017 at 4:18 pm
Hey Richie,
Do any/which of the guys making their debuts fit the mold of someone who would statistically play well at Augusta? I can’t help but think Hudson Swafford has a nice game for Augusta.
Richie Hunt
Apr 7, 2017 at 2:07 pm
Rahm, McGirt (very underrated iron player), Pieters and Swafford. Not a ton of data on Noren to really tell for sure.
Progolfer
Apr 5, 2017 at 4:17 pm
I normally disagree with Rich’s work (sorry Rich!), but I strongly AGREE with this assessment. Spieth isn’t playing well and has scar tissue from last year, Day’s game isn’t in shape, and let’s face it– Dustin Johnson is going to win.
andrew
Apr 5, 2017 at 3:31 pm
I don’t see tommy fleetwood in here
Miramar
Apr 5, 2017 at 7:36 am
“Numbers are essentially lying.” — Kierkegaard
That Guy
Apr 5, 2017 at 5:56 am
Rich – Rafa averages 296 off the tee in 2017, with previous season averages being 290+. Short hitter? Were you using PGA stats and not Euro Tour stats?
Richie Hunt
Apr 5, 2017 at 10:30 am
He’s currently 156th in driving distance on the PGA Tour and his current club speed in competition has been measured at 110.81 mph.
Crash Test Dummy
Apr 5, 2017 at 4:08 am
Personally, I wouldn’t rule out Spieth, Scott, and Stenson. All those guys are very familiar with the course and have played well there in the past.
Richie Hunt
Apr 5, 2017 at 10:32 am
I don’t take pleasure in ruling out any of those guys as I’m a fan of each. I feel more comfortable ruling out Stenson and Scott (both are struggling). Spieth I feel less comfortable with, but I can’t ignore the vast history of missing the cut the week before has on the following week’s success. You could argue that Spieth missed the cut because of the flukey weather at Houston…but, it’s the same weather we are likely to get at ANGC on Thursday and Friday.
Steven
Apr 4, 2017 at 5:33 pm
The fact that you left Jordan Spieth out of the possible winners invalidates your entire article.
Brad T
Apr 4, 2017 at 4:09 pm
sergio cant putt and kaymer cant chip. dont see how augusta suits that.
Richie Hunt
Apr 5, 2017 at 10:35 am
ANGC is an approach shot course. If you can’t hit it close, you’re way behind the 8-ball no matter how good of a putter you are. Bubba, Cabrera and even Phil have won the Masters when they had terrible years putting. The same goes with chipping.
Typically, you need to hit at least 50 GIR to win at ANGC. With the wind, that may change this week. But make no mistake, this is an approach shot course.
Jonnythec
Apr 4, 2017 at 2:27 pm
Can’t rule out Paul Casey. Guy is a serious dark horse and is playing great this year. He has a great chance and I’m the only one who sees it.
GC
Apr 4, 2017 at 9:56 am
Hey Rich, thanks for the great article.
From what I’m reading the weather suggests winds of over 20 mph on Thursday and over 15 mph on Friday. Both days in the high 40s through low 60s. Neither day with any chance of rain so I don’t imagine there will be delays. So it looks to me as if wind will be a factor for the first two days before it mellows out.
I know you said above in a different comment that you are not in the habit of predicting weather, which I understand, but if hypothetically the weather DOES play out like that…what changes in terms of players you like and stats you look at? Are you hoping these 20 guys ride the tougher conditions and then charge in more stat-fitting weekend conditions? Do you instead look for complete players? I kind of feel this favors guys like Rickie who can do both? Maybe even some of the Aussies/strong Texas course players?
Don’t have to go through and re-write the article but if you could reply with what players you like and new statistics you’re looking at with the above hypothetical weather scenario playing out, I’d appreciate it. Thanks again for the article.
Richie Hunt
Apr 5, 2017 at 10:39 am
You forget about with the wind and ANGC slick greens, they may have to delay rounds because the ball won’t stay on the green when you’re putting.
Windy weather at ANGC typically shifts the advantage more towards good wedge players and short game (around the green) artists. Those guys are usually shorter off the tee. That’s how Zach won…record low temps and high wind gusts. So many of the bombers couldn’t reach the par-5’s in two and now Zach was at an advantage. And the GIR goes down with the high winds, so now you have to get up-and-down more.
The difference is that Zach’s win the weather was awful all 4 days. This week it’s supposed to be poor on Thursday and Friday and then nice on the weekend.
Tony P
Apr 4, 2017 at 1:51 am
I remember hearing one of the commentators say the Masters favors draw hitters. Think Baba (he fades the ball, but he is a lefty) and Jordan. So i would lower Matsuyama and DJ’s chance a little bit if that is true.
Richie Hunt
Apr 5, 2017 at 10:42 am
Given Nicklaus won there more than anybody, I don’t think it favors the draw. The draw is nice to have on #10, #13 and #15. But #18 is a more ‘critical’ hole and that clearly favors a fade. And even with 13 and 15, if you hit it high enough and long enough, you can play those holes brilliantly
mixxedbag
Apr 3, 2017 at 11:43 pm
Where’s Tanihara?
Sean
Apr 3, 2017 at 9:21 pm
Which is why I have always thought that the Masters is the “easiest” of all majors to win. The field is extremely limited.
Andy B
Apr 3, 2017 at 7:48 pm
Hi Richie,
Apologies if I missed him on your list, but…
Ross Fisher?
Cheers,
AB (pommie pro in OZ)
Bigputt18
Apr 3, 2017 at 6:30 pm
Great article! I’ll bet you were a very good math student.
Ray Bennett
Apr 3, 2017 at 6:17 pm
Rich, where does putting stats factor into your predictions?
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2017 at 1:31 am
When it comes to predicting a winner of a tournament, putting is almost always worthless. It’s too difficult to predict how well somebody will putt from event to event and historical performance by a player means far less than recent performance. So if a player has putted well at a certain course, it has some value,but not as much as playing poorly the week before (i.e. Spieth). Plus, the vast amount of tournaments are won primarily by ballstriking. ANGC is a great example…if you don’t get your approach shots close, you’re cooked.
Lucky
Apr 3, 2017 at 4:25 pm
Richie, hope you didn’t bet on your predictions.
golfraven
Apr 3, 2017 at 3:35 pm
I am putting the beer on ice but hanging on to my pennies. I beliebe it will be a tight call between Rory and Justin Thomas. I would not rule out the Iceman (Stenson) but that is because I like his chances and he is sharp with his irons.
K dawg
Apr 3, 2017 at 3:30 pm
Rich I was pretty sure last year Danny Willet was just outside your 20? Thought I remember you tweeting as such?
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 4:21 pm
Nope. Here’s a link to the article: http://www.golfwrx.com/366440/the-20-players-who-can-actually-win-the-masters/
I think you may have mistaken me for *my* top-10 picks out of the top-20 that could win. But he was in the top-20.
K Dawg
Apr 3, 2017 at 8:37 pm
Sorry you’re correct it was outside your top 10. Apologies
CM
Apr 3, 2017 at 3:06 pm
Rich, do the strong westerly winds forecast for Thursday and Friday change your predictions in anyway?
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 4:27 pm
I won’t change my predictions because I can’t predict weather. I will say that when the winds pick up, it does change ANGC. This means shorter hitters have more of a chance, especially if they have good short games around the greens. Think of Zach when he won…record cold temps and very windy. However, this weekend is supposed to be perfect weather with no real wind. Rounds 1 and 2 are usually more important in any event, so I would still say that the shorter hitters have better chances if it’s windy on Thursday and Saturday.
The problem is you don’t know what the weather could do. It could be so bad on Thursday or Friday that they have to suspend play until the weekend when it’s nice out. So when you think the weather starts to give shorter hitters more of a chance, a delay could throw that out the window.
Geoffrey
Apr 3, 2017 at 12:33 pm
Rich, how to you come up with your rating for red zone performance? Is it a mixture of proximity from the fairway and greens in regulation from those distances? Is proximity from the rough included at all? I see Scott Piercy as 61st in proximity from the fairway from 175-200, and 81st in proximity from the fairway from 200-225. That should have him as average to slightly above average.
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 2:49 pm
RZ performance also considers the rough and the level of difficulty of the courses the golfer has played in. For instance, you may have 2 golfers that are hitting RZ shots to 40-feet. But golfer A may be playing in fields where the avg. proximity to the cup is 30 feet. And golfer B may be playing in fields where the proximity to the cup is 45 feet. So while they have the total year end equal prox 2 cup, golfer B is clearly the better performer from the RZ.
Geoffrey
Apr 3, 2017 at 3:23 pm
Where do you get that kind of data for the each tourney, or is it something you track yourself with shotlink? I can’t find tournament data on pgatour.com
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 4:22 pm
I use ShotLink, but I get the data on a weekly basis, myself.
Post Malone
Apr 3, 2017 at 12:13 pm
um… Sergio and Rickie hit the ball super low….
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 2:51 pm
Fowler is 54th out of 209 golfers in Max Height. Sergio is 49th.
Post Malone
Apr 3, 2017 at 3:56 pm
surprising, but thanks for info. Watched that wgc at mexico and they kept talking about disadvantage they had not be able to go over trees that justin thomas was easily getting over. Maybe just hit lower drivers?
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 4:23 pm
Years ago I was surprised because I thought Sergio hit it low as well. But, you have to account for how long a golfer hits it and how much club speed. If they hit it long, odds are they are hitting it very high. And some guys really fool you because they may launch it low, but it ends up flying high when you measure the apex height.
robert
Apr 3, 2017 at 11:20 am
as the last 15 years or so, we are beting also on this tournament with a group of friends. Jordan was also a rookie when he was T2 in his first start. As we bet on 5 Players with the highest Prizemoney i think Pieters has a good chance of not only making the cut and i expect bim in the Top20.
Also Casey is always good at the Masters.
The rest of your prognose is very good and i agree.
Robert
Apr 6, 2017 at 12:43 pm
A couple of holes to go…
I like my pick Pieters ????
H
Apr 3, 2017 at 10:56 am
RCB a short hitter!?
H
Apr 3, 2017 at 10:57 am
Fitzpatrick is pretty short as well
mario
Apr 3, 2017 at 11:08 am
Exactly… 7 yards shorter than Rafa who at 296y should not blush too much. Great value bet.
Interesting to see that Martin Kaymer passes all the filters but has a game that really doesn’t suit Augusta. Still a good value bet as well
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 2:52 pm
RCB is 153rd in driving distance this year and has been measured at 110.81 mph in club speed this year. That’s not very long.
jd57
Apr 4, 2017 at 9:39 am
Not very long.*
*Relative to PGA Tour long hitters.
Holden Wisener
Apr 3, 2017 at 9:45 am
Blasphemy, Jordan will win
Richie Hunt
Apr 3, 2017 at 10:33 am
I hope he does.