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Opinion & Analysis

Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2018 Safeway Open

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The beginning of the 2018-2019 season is already upon us…basically a two-week break! The good news is most casual fans have completely shifted their focus to the NFL which means we should see “softer” competition during the Fall Swing. Another note during the Fall Swing, you will see a lot of names you are not familiar with due to rookies from the Web.com Tour getting their careers started early, but don’t let them fool you! There are some extremely talented players that have far more upside than guys like Charles Howell III or Chez Reavie and they should be mostly under-the-radar.

Before we get into my core plays, let’s take a look at the course and what the players will be facing. The 2018 Safeway Open, formerly the Frys.com Open, will be held at Silverado Resort and Spa North in Napa, Calif. Historically one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour every year, the winning score has exceeded 15-under par each of the past three seasons. The Silverado Resort North course tips out just shy of 7,200 yards (7,166) and plays to a par of 72. Although it may be difficult to statistically dig into the entire field with so many rookies on Tour playing in their first event, birdies-or-better (BoB) will certainly be a key stat this week.

Let’s take what we now know about scoring and step back to take a bigger picture of the course. Looking at accuracy numbers from last year, these were some of the easiest greens to hit on Tour with last year’s GIR number coming in at 66.82 percent — yet diving accuracy was one of the worst at only 50.25 percent. That is a red flag to me and immediately removes any notion to include driving accuracy in my model. Why is that? Essentially this data tells us there is no real premium on hitting the fairway because these numbers are not correlated.

To expand upon this further, the average driving distance here last year was pretty significant, averaging 299.4 yards. Strictly from a stat-based appearance, without looking at the course photos, this is a bomber’s paradise as far as hitting lots of drivers and not paying the price if fairways are missed. Perhaps adding driving distance to your model or your player research is not a bad idea this week. The numbers certainly show that bombers will have an advantage.

The last thing I will touch on is the green complexes, and more importantly, putting. These greens are somewhat complex (no pun intended), which is where much of the bite comes in and why we do not see sub-20 under winning every year. I would not suggest weighing putting however, as 3-putt avoidance, one-putt percentage and overall putting average are all middle of the pack for PGA Tour difficulty. Guys should be hitting a lot of greens and whoever can get the putter going will fair very well. If you are still on the “putting is the key to golf” bandwagon (which is technically true just not for DFS), taking a look at longer term putting splits inside of 10 feet may prove beneficial, as that range ranked second most difficult on Tour last year.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into my core plays for this week.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,600)

Patrick Cantlay at $11.6k is really borderline for me, but if I had to pick out anyone in this field to rely on, it would be him. He can certainly pay off the price tag but rostering him is for one of two things: 1. You are playing cash and need a solid building block, or 2. You think he is a class above the rest of this field and should certainly finish in the top five. Statistically this course grades out as his type of course, as he ranks third SG:T2G, seventh SG:OTT and fifth in DK points. He is surprisingly long, so I think that adds to his appeal. I certainly do not see Patrick Cantlay “breaking the slate” this weekend in one way or another but as far as a core play, I think he is worth the spend.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $10,000)

I am severely torn between Grillo and Niemann, but Grillo grades out better for me mainly due to his course history (Niemann has none). Grillo has played here three times and has a win and two top-28 finishes under his belt. Again, 10K requires a top finish to pay off, but I like Grillo’s chances of adding a second victory here this week. He had a really rough stretch during the middle of this past season but started to come into form really well leading into the Fedex Cup Playoffs. He rates out in the top 15 of all the major stat categories I am looking at this week, including fourth in SG:Putting which could actually be a big difference maker on these greens.

Sang-Moon Bae (DK $8,400)

After those 10k and up guys, I am not in love with many. I think Brendan Steele is in the conversation for a core play but hard to know which Brendan Steele shows up. The one I am most interested in going into the $8k range is Sang-Moon Bae, and from what I am seeing he should be somewhat under-owned. Sang-Moon won this event back in 2015 but then had to leave the United States to fulfill his military obligation in Korea. Well since his return last season, he has really underperformed…until about five weeks ago! To finish off his season, he had to go to the Web.com Tour to try to regain status. Well, he is back on Tour this year due to this incredible stretch of golf. Beginning at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship, Sang-Moon finished T35, T6, and then 1st. Keep in mind this last event was only three weeks ago so still very relevant form. I am taking that Web.com form mixed with his course history here and putting him in a lot of my lineups this week.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,600)

Chez does not fit the bomber profile but he does like this course. As I mentioned on the FGB Podcast, Chez has finished T17, T22, T13 the past 3 years and overall just seems to play the Fall Swing really well year in and year out. That part is hard to explain, but I do know that the form he takes into this event never seems to matter. He is one of the highest ranked putters on Tour so this is probably what offsets his driving distance. At 7,600 Chez is one of the few mispriced Tour veterans in this field that we can count on.

Sungjae Im (DK $7,000)

This one here is really exciting, but sadly he probably won’t be under-the-radar. Sungjae just came of a historic season on the Web.com Tour where he won twice and finished 2nd three times! His last few events to finish the season were 1st, T51, T16, and T43 finishes, so I would certainly say his form has not diminished. He played in two majors this year, the U.S. Open where he MCdd (so did Tiger, Rory, Jason Day, Speith, etc.) and the PGA Championship, where he finished 42nd. He ranked 23rd in driving accuracy, 21st in GIR% and 17th in putting average. This kid is good, and I want to be sure to have plenty of exposure early in the season when he is essentially playing against Web.com guys anyways.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,800)

Tyler is another player, like Chez, that doesn’t fit the bomber narrative but has just been so solid for the last year. He had a stretch earlier this year where he made 11 cuts in a row. ELEVEN! That is really strong. He did play here last year and finished fifth, so his price just doesn’t make sense. I will gladly add Tyler to my Cash and GPP pool, take the savings and count on a made cut and another potential Top 10. To put the cherry on top, Tyler ranks seventh in SG:T2G and fourth in SG:APP. His numbers and course history look really good so I just don’t understand why he is priced down under 7K.

Also consider…

Ryan Moore
Joaquin Niemann
Denny McCarthy
Brendan Steele
Harold Varner III
Sam Ryder
Curtis Luck
Joel Dahmen

Good luck this week everyone!

I am ranked in the Top 35 of all DFS Golf players and best known for winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest during the week of The Masters earlier this year. I am very active around the community, always willing to help whether with strategy or research and you can find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and also each week on the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast. One last note, my history is in professional golf, which definitely adds a unique perspective to DFS that most people do not have and you will find really gives you an edge when evaluating players each week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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