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Opinion & Analysis

Betting The Players Championship: Inside the mind of a professional gambler

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Golf betting is blowing up. Look no further than the PGA Tour’s recent partnership with the Action Network for evidence of that fact.

With the calendar reshuffle, The Players Championship now kicks off the meat of the golf season. The most serious golf bettors have been placing wagers for months of the 2020 season already, so to get the more casual wagerers among us ready for the big betting events of the year, we’re talking with a professional gambler.

We’ve talked with Dave of Top Market Sports, the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts, on two occasions, and he always has plenty of betting wisdom to impart.

Check out our conversation below.

Q. What are some challenges that you face as a serious golf bettor?

Betting on golf for a living is like trying to hit a moving target. It’s very niche, so it’s worlds different from betting on something like the NFL. The hardest part becomes finding fair places to bet. Here’s a good example. There are a bunch of major bookmaking operations that are now capping golf futures at 50/1. Meaning that 50/1 is the deepest they’ll price a guy to win a tournament. They just don’t want the liability given how thin the market is. Like this week, Chez Reavie is being offered for 50/1 at some places. That is the definition of outrageous. I bet him last night at 200/1 offshore.

You can’t be playing carnival games with these people. Not if you want to turn a meaningful profit doing this. So, I guess that’s my biggest challenge lately, being forced to become a global citizen in order to have proper jurisdiction and access to bookmakers across the globe. It’s funny, people assume you can bet on anything under the sun here in Vegas. In reality, the golf betting scene in this town is pretty dead. There’s one new shop attempting to breathe some life into it, but the jury is still out. As a result, the lion’s share of bets I’m making on The Players Championship this week will be placed offshore.

Q. You seem to never bet on the big marquee names like Rory McIlroy to win. Why?

A. Betting single-digit futures is bankroll suicide. Single-digit futures are anyone with shorter odds than 10/1. In fact, I’m actually making a conscious effort this season to not touch anything lower than 25/1.

The sports betting market, as a whole, underestimates the possibility of an unexpected event happening. For example, the St. Louis Blues won the Stanley Cup last year after being priced at 250/1 midway through the season. Leicester City won the Premier League as a 5000/1 long shot a few years ago. Five thousand to one! My point is that in sports, the unexpected happens all of the time. And in golf, this phenomenon is amplified even more.

If you’re feeling strongly about a player at the top of the board like McIlroy, just bet him in matchups. Then all you have to do is beat one guy, not a full field of 143 killers. Pretty much everyone in this Players Championship field is capable of tasting God Mode on any given week. You want to bet against an army of 143 with a 6/1 shot? Be my guest, but you’re in the wrong business.

Q. Speaking of matchups, how do you split the action between matchups and futures? And how did your selections fare last week at Bay Hill?

A. Matchups are the meat and potatoes. You have to be able to sustain yourself on matchups while waiting to smash a gravy train future. About 75 percent of my play each week goes into matchups, and the remaining quarter gets pounded into deep value outrights.

Last week we played McNealy (100/1), DeChambeau (25/1), Scheffler (70/1), and Cabrera Bello (100/1) in the outright market. Despite whiffing, it was encouraging to see both DeChambeau and Scheffler in semi-contention for all 72 holes.

Our huge matchup play at Bay Hill was Harris English -120 over Jason Kokrak. This was one of those spots where clients were advised to hammer until they couldn’t hammer it anymore. It really was stealing! I beat a Costa Rican outfit for a Cadillac on that one. Fading Kokrak has been a windfall these past couple years. The wannabe-wiseguy-leather-jacket crowd can’t get over him for some reason. We also cashed DeChambeau +112 over Fleetwood and Scheffler -125 over Niemann. The only match we lost was Howell -111 over Cauley. On the whole, it was a satisfactory week.

Q. Nice work! How about a pick for this week?

A. The matchups I’m going to reserve for my client base, but here’s another future. I already mentioned Chez Reavie at 200/1. Shane Lowry at 90/1 is also worth something. Sentiment has really reached a boiling point on him. His extended liquor-soaked British Open celebrations are a cute narrative, but couldn’t be further from the truth at this point.

He’s been striking it beautifully for months, but has been held back by some trouble on the greens. After a workmanlike top 25 at Honda, he took Bay Hill off for a hard reset of the putter. Sometimes, a putting shake-up can pay immediate and shocking dividends. People inside the ropes tell me he’s 100 percent golf-focused, locked down practicing with the flatstick in recent days, preparing for this week’s championship.

Shane now fancies himself a big event player, as he should. That British Open bink seems like a lifetime ago, but in reality it’s only been seven months. The win proved he’s capable of being a rockstar threat on the biggest stage. And with TPC Sawgrass being as pressure-packed and high stakes as it gets, this gives him a mental edge on the majority of the field. Knowing he’s done it before is the type of intangible Pokemon power card that could come in very handy if he’s able to slide into contention down the stretch on Sunday.

 

Check out Top Market Sports for golf (and all other major sport) packages, and follow TMS on Instagram.

Ben Alberstadt is the Editor-in-Chief at GolfWRX, where he’s led editorial direction and gear coverage since 2018. He first joined the site as a freelance writer in 2012 after years spent working in pro shops and bag rooms at both public and private golf courses, experiences that laid the foundation for his deep knowledge of equipment and all facets of this maddening game. Based in Philadelphia, Ben’s byline has also appeared on PGATour.com, Bleacher Report...and across numerous PGA DFS and fantasy golf platforms. Off the course, Ben is a committed cat rescuer and, of course, a passionate Philadelphia sports fan. Follow him on Instagram @benalberstadt.

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Barry

    Mar 12, 2020 at 1:01 am

    Explain to me again how the PGA tour is a non profit?

  2. kevin

    Mar 11, 2020 at 9:19 am

    i’d be curious if the pros would consider it a better bet to bet a top 5, top, 10, or top 20 vs trying to pick winners. you can find great odds and have a player play great and not win. picking winners seems like an unrealistic crap shoot, especially doing it picking guys with longer odds.

  3. rob

    Mar 11, 2020 at 1:41 am

    really?
    i always asked myself „why are people giving a shank on these„.
    now i gave also one. i love statistics, like the guys from 15th club, but dude, the homepage is from 2018 and they talking about PGA Championship in Bellvere

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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