Welcome to a new installment of betting tips from staff writer and host of the Inside Golf Podcast, Andy Lack.

The PGA Tour travels to Owings Mills, Maryland, this week for the BMW Championship, the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. The top-70 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be in attendance this week at Caves Valley Golf Club, a course that has never hosted a PGA Tour event before.

Despite having zero data on Caves Valley to draw from, we can still gleam an understanding of the course through the hole by hole descriptions on the website and other PGA Tour courses designed by Tom Fazio. Caves Valley is a Par 72, measuring 7,542 yards.

I’ve alluded to the fact that the Baltimore area course is a Fazio design, and the famed modern designer has done design or re-design work on other PGA Tour courses such as Quail Hollow, Conway Farms, Congaree, Shadow Creek, and Kamusigaseki. With all players in the field seeing the course in competition for the first time, I will be leaning heavily on recent form and how players have performed on similar comp courses. Let’s dig into my outright selections.

Brooks Koepka (25/1, DraftKings)

Brooks Koepka was the final cut from my card last week. I subbed him out for Dustin Johnson at the eleventh hour, and while neither ended up being a good selection, I’ve been eyeing these Koepka numbers for a couple of weeks now, and I am finally ready to make a commitment. The four-time PGA Tour winner is coming off a ho-hum 31st-place finish where he gained four strokes off the tee, lost 2.6 strokes on approach, and lost 1.5 strokes putting. With that being said, he lost a disastrous 4.5 strokes on approach on Sunday when he was out of the tournament, yet hit the ball beautifully throughout the rest of the week.

While my next selection is certainly shaping up to be a trendy pick, I haven’t heard a lot of chatter on Koepka this week, despite Caves Valley being a perfect fit for him. Over his last 36 rounds, the eight-time PGA Tour winner ranks third in strokes gained off the tee, third in strokes gained par-fives, and tenth in driving distance. I do not believe that he should have longer odds than Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, or Dustin Johnson on this course. I’ll gladly take my chances on Koepka at 25/1.

Bryson DeChambeau (35/1, DraftKings)

This will probably not be the first (or the last) time you hear the following statement this week, but this Bryson DeChambeau number has to be an auto-bet. The nine-time PGA Tour winner fits Caves Valley to a tee. From early reports on the grounds, the course has been lengthened to over 7,500 yards, the rough has been grown out, and the fairways have been pinched to just 25 yards on average. Similar to what we saw at Winged Foot and Bay Hill, this should play right into Bryson’s hands. While I do not believe that Caves Valley will play as difficult as those two courses, I have not subscribed to the popular theory that this will be a total birdie-fest either. Every report we have received thus far implies that the Tour is making a concerted effort to toughen this course up.

The reason I bring any of this up is that Bryson is the number one player in this field in strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, and proximity from 200 yards plus. He should be able to carry most of Caves Valley’s trouble off the tee, and even if he finds himself in the rough, he’ll be muscling out wedges while others are hitting 7-irons. He’s coming off an incredible ball-striking week at the Northern Trust where he gained 5.1 strokes on approach and 3.2 strokes on approach, and I am expecting some positive regression with the flat-stick. The former U.S. Open winner lost 2.8 strokes putting last week. In the last calendar year, he has lost over two strokes putting only four times, and in the following start, he has gained an average of 4.1 strokes putting. Everything is falling into place for the former U.S. Open champion.

Paul Casey (40/1, BetMGM)

Yes, I will be selecting another player that hit the ball beautifully at the Northern Trust but did not even sniff the first page of the leaderboard. Paul Casey finished T64 last week at Liberty National, while gaining 3.2 strokes off the tee, and 5.7 strokes on approach. Unfortunately, he lost a combined 10.1 strokes around the green and putting.

I will take my chances on a bounce-back putting week for the 18-time worldwide winner. Casey just gained seven strokes putting after-all two starts ago in Memphis, and bent-grass has historically been his preferred surface. Over his last 36 rounds, Casey is also the only player in the field to rank top-ten in strokes gained approach, weighted proximity from 175 yards plus, and strokes gained par fives. His length off the tee is also severely underrated, as the Englishman ranks 15th in this field in driving distance.

Joaquin Niemann (60/1, DraftKings)

Bent-grass fairways and greens? Check. 7,500 yard plus course that favors long and accurate drivers of the golf ball? Check. Tom Fazio course with undulating greens that favors elite lag putters? Check. I really like Joaquin Niemann’s fit at Caves Valley, and this 60/1 number feels a bit steep who was going off at the same price in majors.

Niemann finished a quiet T47 last week at the Northern Trust, but he gained strokes in all four categories except putting. With that being said, I believe it’s safe to assume we get some positive regression with the flat-stick for a player that ranks top-ten in this field in total strokes gained putting, Bent-grass putting, and three putt avoidance over his last 36 rounds. Niemann also ranks 13th in this field in strokes gained off the tee and eighth in driving distance. In his young career, the former Greenbrier Classic winner has already finished top-ten at the Tom Fazio designed Kasumigaseki and Shadow Creek.

Marc Leishman (140/1, Bet365)

This number just feels way too large for Marc Leishman. The Australian has won before on the long and narrow Bay Hill, Torrey Pines, and the Tom Fazio designed Conway Farms, yet now he’s being priced behind players like Maverick McNealy and Harold Varner. That’s just downright silly.

I understand that Leishman is a highly volatile player who is prone to missing cuts, but it’s not like his form has been terrible this season. He won the team event with Cameron Smith, contended at the Masters, and recently just finished third at the Travelers Championship. He’s also coming off a week at the Northern Trust where he gained over four strokes on approach, good for his best iron week since January. Leishman does a few specific things that I really care about this week. He’s plenty long off the tee, and over his last 36 rounds, he ranks top five in this field in sand saves and proximity from 200 yards plus. I’ll gladly back the six-time PGA Tour winner at an egregious number.