After a week in Bermuda, we head to Playa Del Carmen, Mexico, for the 2021 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba at El Camaleón Golf Club.

Previously named The Mayakoba Golf Classic and the OHL at Mayakoba, the event has been a Tour stop since 2007 but was an alternate event until 2014 when it was moved to November and became a primary event. Since then, the tournament has offered full FedEx Cup points and a sizable purse.

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The recent fields at Mayakoba have been pretty solid, but this year is one of the strongest fields in the tournament’s history. Some of the notable golfers among the 132 in the field include Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Sergio Garcia, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris.

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El Camaleon Golf Club is a 6,987 yard Par 71 featuring paspalum greens. This short coastal track has played relatively easy since the tournament’s switch to November but can get tricky if the wind doesn’t cooperate.

Past Winners at World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba

(The Mayakoba Golf Classic)

• 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
• 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
• 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)

(OHL Classic At Mayakoba)

• 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
• 2016: Pat Perez (-21)
• 2015: Kevin Kisner (-18)
• 2014: Charlie Hoffman (-17)

My selections are as follows:

Justin Thomas (+1400, Bet365): JT hasn’t won an event since the Players Championship in March of 2021. For most players on Tour, a win almost eight months ago would be a pretty significant accomplishment; but Justin Thomas isn’t most players on Tour.

With sixteen PGA Tour wins on his resume, Thomas ranks fourth in all-time wins for golfers who are currently playing. At just 28 years old, he is on pace to be one of the most prolific winners of his generation. Although he has been relatively inconsistent during these past eight months since the Players, there is reason to believe El Camaleón Golf Club is the perfect place for JT to break out of his slump.

When evaluating Thomas’ previous Tour victories, a few things stand out. The first is that he often tends to win during “swing season”. Eight of his sixteen wins have come between the months of September and January. The other glaring finding of note is his success on shorter courses. TPC Kuala Lumpur (2), Waialae Country Club, PGA National Resort and Spa, and TPC Southwind are all courses where Thomas has won that are relatively short by Tour standards.

Another aspect of El Camaleón that should suit JT is the paspalum greens. Thomas ranks first in the field by a large margin in Strokes Gained: Total on courses that have paspalum greens. He is gaining an average of 2.4 strokes per round on the surface and the next best is 1.8 per round (Billy Horschel). Thomas’ high ranking on the surface is no surprise considering his amazing success on the courses that feature paspalum, including two victories at TPC Kuala Lumpur. One of the 28-year-old’s biggest detriments during his relative cold stretch has been his putter; returning to a surface he has dominated on should help turn that around.

In addition to the course fit, Thomas also has shown some recent signs of his form coming around. In his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 3.9 strokes on approach and 5.4 from tee to green. Although the results haven’t been ideal, the opportunities have been as evidenced by his ranking of second in the field in Opportunities Gained (birdie chances within fifteen feet) in his past 24 rounds.

I don’t often go towards the top of the board during the “swing season”, but at this number, I feel there is still significant value on JT and expect him to earn his 17th career victory on Tour.

Billy Horschel (+3300, DraftKings): As evidenced by his tied for fifth performance last year, El Camaleón is a great course for Billy Horschel. Paspalum greens have been very kind to Billy in the past, and he trails only Justin Thomas for Strokes Gained: Total on Paspalum. His knack for stalking putts and then aggressively trying to sink them translates nicely to the slow velcro-like paspalum greens.

Horschel has also fared incredibly well on short tracks both throughout his career and recently. He has top 10 finishes at numerous shorter courses in addition to El Camaleón in his career, including Waialae Country Club, Sedgefield Country Club, TPC Southwind, Harbour Town Golf Links and many others. The former Florida Gator ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on courses under 7,200 yards.

When examining Horschel’s skill set, it isn’t very surprising that he dominates shorter courses. He consistently puts the ball in the fairway and has gained an average of 4 strokes on the field per event in Fairways Gained, which sets him up for easy approach shots into greens for birdie looks.

The 34-year-old is also in the midst of a nice stretch of golf at the moment. After finishing 9th at the Tour Championship in September, Horschel traveled to Wentworth Golf Club in England to compete in the BMW PGA Championship. The event had an absolutely stacked field and Horschel was able to walk away with the trophy for his first European Tour victory.

Billy has previously spoken about what he perceived as a snub for the 2021 Ryder Cup and how he drew motivation from it: “I didn’t get that phone call. I was a little upset. I was a little ticked. Gave me a little bit of fire in my butt or my arse, to be nice to really not show anything, but you know, just gave me a little fire, not that I needed it.”

Even though he won in Europe since then, you can be sure Horschel is (gator) chomping at the bit to add another PGA Tour victory to his resume.

Emiliano Grillo (+7500, DraftKings): Another golfer who will benefit greatly from the paspalum greens is Emiliano Grillo. Nine of the top twenty-four Strokes Gained performances of his career have come on courses that feature paspalum. This is an absolutely amazing statistic considering there are only a handful of courses that meet that description. Similarly, seven of his past thirteen starts on paspalum have resulted in a finish of 11th place or better. Simply put, Emiliano Grillo is a completely different player when playing on his preferred green surface.

Grillo has also been very successful at shorter courses in his career, with the reason being that he excels with shorter approach shots. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in the field in proximity from 125-150 yards which is a distance he will be seeing quite often at El Camaleón. I also like the Argentines’ ability to put the ball in the fairway. Historically, golfers who keep the ball in play and rack up greens in regulation have had great success at El Camaleón.

Hudson Swafford (+20000, DraftKings):

El Camaleón is a dream, and Hudson Swafford is a dream fit. The 34-year-old has played some of his best golf at similar setups, including a victory and a 6th place finish in his last two starts at Corales Puntacana, which has a similar layout with paspalum greens. He also has a 3rd place finish at Waialae Country Club, which has a lot of similarities to El Camaleón as well.

In addition to the course fit, Swafford has been playing very well of late. In his past 24 rounds he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 12th in Greens in Regulation: Gained, which has been a statistic highly indicative of the winner in recent iterations of the event.