Opinion & Analysis
2022 Fortinet Championship and Italian Open: Betting Picks & Selections
From sombre to enthralling, the BMW PGA Championship had the lot.
After the nation stooped following the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, Wentworth had a job of getting golf excited about the final two days of a shortened flagship event – but delivered in spades.
It took a bogey-free 54 holes for Shane Lowry to edge past the brilliance of Jon Rahm’s final round 62, before holding on from pre-event favourite Rory McIlroy, himself missing an eagle putt at the last to tie and take it into a play-off – by an inch.
Back to Earth this week as the DP World Tour has it’s second consecutive outing at the Marco Simone Country Club, venue of next year’s Ryder Cup.
After a couple of years of lesser fields, McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland stick around to provide real class to the Italian Open field, whilst on the PGA Tour, although they can’t quite match the world rankings of those stars, Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa and Corey Conners provide three players ranked in the world’s top 25 to a tournament that feels like it’s the opener to a new season, and that’s exactly what it is.
Best Bets – Italian Open
Adri Arnaus 66/1, Callum Shinkwin 70/1, Rafa Cabrera-Bello 125/1
Whilst nodding at the chances of the three players currently situated inside the world’s top dozen players, none make any appeal the prices.
If given no choice, look to the Northern Irishman, and for the winning distance for last week’s runner-up – he’s awfully short but could easily gag up on a course that will offer untold chances off his top-class tee-to-green play. At 4/1 he leaves no margin for error, though, and with Fitz and Hovland both fading away after having chances over the weekend, I’ll take a look further down the list for a trio of ‘no tears’ wagers.
27-year-old Adri Arnaus has long been a player that the golf community wants to be with, but he flits in and out of form, hence the reason we can get a large price for a player that finished 12th here last year after a missed-cut at Crans.
Constantly long off the tee, a feature of both Nicolai Hojgaard and Adrian Meronk in their one-two of 2021, Arnaus should fare better than late given the more forgiving nature of the fairways compared with Himmerland and Wentworth, courses at which he is historically four from seven in missed-cuts.
32nd for greens-in-regulation this year, the Spaniard has proven a lot tidier in his tee-to-green game this season, can take advantage of his length and tee-to-green game and it will all be down to the way he operates on the greens.
This isn’t the Alps, a region Arnaus does well at, but amongst his wins in Italy is the victory at the Challenge Tour Grand Finale, where he beat Victor Perez. Hosted by the Al Hamra course at Ras Al Khaimah, that course has seen a victory from Hojgaard and a runner-up and sixth from Meronk – all from just a combined handful of outings – that’s the correlative form of correlative form, and I have no issues putting up his top-10 efforts in Dubai as evidence of his class.
29-year-old Callum Shinkwin is one of those players. Try to pigeon-hole him as a pure links player and he’ll make you look silly, yet there is something about his style that leads me to think that given the chance to open up on a track that has those elements, he can go silly low.
Another whose Wentworth form is less than ordinary, ignore that and he comes here off three progressive results. The Moor Park star was sixth at the halfway mark when overall 16th at Hillside, a closing seventh at Fairmont, and finally an easy four-shot winner at Celtic Manor just over a month ago, his second win on tour.
Past form indicates he should improve on the 46th last year, his fifth at the KLM Open linking in Dutch form of many of last year’s leaderboard (Hojgaard runner-up) whilst an 8th behind Thorbjorn Olesen and Frani Molinari came on Gardagolf, an equally open course that one reviewer called “relaxed.”
No stress, open the shoulders, bit of quality with the irons, and Shinks is right there.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello was once 16th in the OWGR, and if last week indicates his future play, he can start inching his way closer to that than his current position outside of the top 150.
One swallow and all that, but I felt there would be more of a reaction to some excellent play last week when the Spaniard ranked 24th off-the-tee, sixth for approaches and third for tee-to-green, behind only winner Lowry and Abraham Ancer. Indeed, the 38-year-old ranked second in his second round for both that and his approaches. Anything resembling that sees him able to contend with even the very best, as he did when winning in Dubai and contending at Sawgrass, WGC Mexico and Jordan Spieth’s Open victory at Birkdale.
There is no suggestion yet he is back to that level of form, but something clearly clicked during his nine-birdie second round and having ranked eighth in birdies for the three days, he can bring that confidence to a course he may not have played on before, but to a country in which he is ‘played one, finished fourth’ – in 2018, two shots in front of Shinkwin.
That isn’t the only connection between the two. In fact, bring all three into a form-line.
Rafa has won six times at professional level, two wins via a play-off. In 2017 he bested Shinkwin to win the Scottish Open, whilst when winning his home Open, he beat Arnaus in a tense finale.
Fortinet Championship
Cameron Davis 28/1, Brendan Steele 50/1, Emiliano Grillo Top South American 1/1
Just a couple in the outright market this week.
While Corey Conners holds impressive claims this week, he does only have one victory to his name, albeit the potentially relevant Texas Open. At under 20/1 though, I can leave him alone, especially as he will be a bigger price for better events, yet still hold similar claims to contend.
Instead, take 27-year-old Cameron Davis to kick on after opening his PGA Tour account last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic from Troy Merrit, a player with finishes of 4th/15th/16th around Silverado.
The Australian has taken his time to settle down on tour but his best efforts read well in the context of the challenge this week in a area he loves.
Third at the 2021 American Express behind Si Woo Kim and Patrick Cantlay, he finished in front of Tony Finau (good record here) whilst at Harbour Town in April this year he was just a shot behind top class Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay.
That was the start of a run of 11 cuts and just one weekend off, at the Wells Fargo, after an uncharacteristically poor second round saw him miss the cut by two shots.
In those 11, Davis has top-10 finishes at the classic Charles Schwab and John Deere, and at the Barracuda, and he backs those up with three recent top-20 finishes at Twin Cities and Detroit before 13th and 35th at the first two play-off events.
Over the past three months, Davis ranks 16th for ball-striking, 28th for par-5 performance, 31st for greens, and 2nd in birdie conversion.
Very much at home in California, where he has made his last 12 cuts, he looks the type to progress his game to another level this year, very much in the Max Homa way of 2021.
It may be a bit too obvious to go for two-time winner Brendan Steele here, but despite winning back-to-back in 2016 and 2017, his best form of the last year suggests he can still compete around a course he clearly loves to play, and is a price that works.
A winner not only of two events at the Napa Valley track but also in Texas, his places at the Sony, Sawgrass, River Highlands and Pheonix highlight the tracks he plays well at – he is tidy and that presents itself with chances on the greens. This isn’t a track players want to be giving shots away because of poor approach play and Steele’s best results have been when he is top-20 in both driving and irons.
For evidence of those crucial elements, examine the 39-year-old’s figures from his last five completed starts.
Average rankings for off-the-tee and approach is around 13th, leading to 12th for overall tee-to-green; in old money Steele ranks fifth for total driving, second for ball-striking, and sixth in greens-in-regulation.
Down to the flat stick. At a ‘bullseye’, take the chance.
No prices are out yet, but have a look at Chez Reavie for possible first round leader this week. With an average first round position of 14th in his last six starts here and bests of 1st and 4th, an early start would be a bonus.
Instead, snap up any evens about Emiliano Grillo to be top South American.
As always, this is about context with the market rivals, of which there are three.
Augusto Nunez had a decent run on the Korn Ferry Tour from June and July, but regressed with two missed cuts from the three championship starts and has never played around here. Nicolas Echavarria is another to have only won on the South American Tour, but does come here off a top-five at the KFT finale. Yet again, though, he has no form in California, yet alone around Silverado.
Finally Tano Goya has regressed dramatically since looking a potential future star in the early 2010s. Now ranked outside the top 600, he looks to be on the way back after a couple of injury-ravaged seasons, but again, a pair of top-six finishes in 20 starts should not trouble the favourite.
Grillo is easy to make a case for.
Known as one of the most difficult of players to win with, the Argentinian still competes strongly despite struggling to get his head in front.
Winner of this event, when known as the Frys.com Open, he backs that up with three further top-30 finishes in six starts, but his 2022 form leads me to think he can better those by some margin.
J.T Poston had a short-lived fright as Grillo stuck with him for much of the final round at Deere Run, whilst he split a flying Tony Finau and Sungjae Im at the 3M Open just a fortnight later – form of a different level to anything his market rivals can offer.
Since then, the Argentinian took part in the first two play-off events, finishing 31st at St. Jude (ninth at halfway) and 19th in the BMW at Wilmington, both events again on a higher level than his competition has ever seen.
Grillo continues to present a top-class tee-to-green game, ranking 30th in total driving, 14th in ball-striking, ninth for greens-in-regulation, eighth for par-4s and 31st for the longer holes. Given these stats are all for full-field PGA Tour events, he should be able to win this market with a few to spare.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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