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Opinion & Analysis

2022 Andalucia Masters: Betting Tips & Selections

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Voted one of the best golf courses in the world, Valderrama has built its reputation on being one of the most challenging places a player can tee up a golf ball.

Blind tee-shots (aim at the tree), winding and oak-lined fairways, falling acorns and small, undulating greens, the Sotogrande track has a host of defences.

2020 champion John Catlin looked battered and bruised as he fought off an equally war-torn Martin Kaymer, whilst subsequent U.S Open winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, positively revelled in grinding his way to a three-shot win over last week’s Spanish Open third, Min Woo Lee.

The 7000 yard course is clearly one to be careful on – and personally, it is the best event on the DP World Tour – but the bombers have had some success here, with Ryan Fox and Wilco Nienaber able to club down and use strength to work their way around.

With the weather set fair, the tough greens could be hard to hold, forcing scramblers to the fore, and giving justice to the nickname “The Augusta of Europe.”

Fabrizio Zanotti – Win /Top-5

Yannik Paul – Win/Top-5

Adrian Otaegui – Win/Top-5/Top-10 

Julien Brun – Top-10/Top-20 

Like Xander at the Zozo, Matt Fitzpatrick is a deserved favourite this week.

Clear on world rankings, Fitz’s game is perfectly suited to working his way around this tight track, and having shown up in scrambling and putting stats in far better quality fields, could easily ‘do a Rahm’ and win this easily when it counts.

Three of the last six winners have started at 80/1 or longer, so whilst the favourite is bound to be popular and in each-way doubles across the card, Martin Kaymer looked home when head-to-head against Catlin and failed. It’s not that hard to see someone just grind it out again.

Seven of the last 11 winners ranked in the top-20 for greens-in-regulation, meaning less pressure on the chipping to the often fast, tricky greens, so it makes prefect sense to start the card with Fabrizio Zanotti who ranks sixth in that discipline over the last three months.

In fact, the Paraguayan is finding it quite simple to seek the short stuff, leading the way for total accuracy, ranking sixth in driving accuracy, and top 12 for ball-striking and on the par-fours.

In-between missed weekends at St. Andrews (not his track) and in Italy, the 39-year-old finished top-20 yet again at Crans, Himmerland and Wentworth, all with their own individual nuances, and all with some link to recent contenders here.

Both Catlin and Fitzpatrick won here after missing the cut on debut, and Zanotti’s record reads far better – a bit like Graeme McDowell’s in 2010 – with four cuts from five, the best effort being last season’s fourth place when he improved every round.

This won’t be about birdie-chasing, so this two-time winner, who also contended in Malaysia, Portrush, Hilversum in his time, can stick around for much of the four days.

In a similar vein, Adrian Otaegui appears too big based on his modus operandi.

Considering driving accuracy, greens-in-reg and scrambling, the 29-year-old home player ranks in the top half-dozen of the field, yet can be backed nearer the 20th most likely.

Although winner of three tournaments, two of those were in match-play format, showing he has the bottle to win when head-to-head, and the win at the Scottish Championship came courtesy of book-ender rounds of 62 and 63. Having won at Fairmont, he has since made every weekend in Scotland, peaking with a third place at the same course, whilst his major amateur victory was in Kilmarnock.

Otaegui tends to repeat in places he does well in, such as Dubai, Ireland and Qatar, so his course form of four cuts from five that includes best finishes of 12th and 17th (sixth after three rounds) is encouraging enough.

I’m not certain that flirting as a rag in a trio of LIV events was of any use besides the money, but he returned from Boston to finish 13th at the shortened PGA at Wentworth, 25th in Italy after a slow start, and 13th in France. At all, he ranked highly in accuracy and scrambling. Perfect.

Take away the missed-cut at the Alfred Dunhill Links and he may be the best of the home contingent in an event that rewards Spanish players with Sergio Garcia winning three times, and three Spaniards finishing joint-runner-up behind Christian Bezuidenhout in 2019.

28-year-old Yannik Paul can take revenge on the course for former German hero Martin Kaymer, who lost out narrowly to Catlin in the ultimate grind a couple of years ago.

Like the Hojgaards, Yannik and his twin brother, Jeremy, play on similar tours, last week finishing three shots apart at Club De Campo, and Yannik is proving by far the most consistent through this season.

 

After six top-10s on the Challenge Tour last season, Yannik finished with a one-shot defeat by Marcus Helligkilde at the season-ending Grand Final, and therefore qualifying for the top league.

A few weeks later, the former University of Colorado student finished top-10 in the rain-affected Joburg Open before top-10s at the ISPS Handa at the Infinitum course, Tarragona (Otaegui in second) and subsequently joint-runner-up at Soudal in Belgium (see Otaegui again, tied with Ryan Fox, with form around Valders).

Recent form is again encouraging, with a pair of eighth place finishes in his last three starts, in France and Spain again, whilst the missed cut that sits in-between the two was courtesy of an 81 in the horrendous conditions of a Friday at the Dunhill Links.

Rather like a pro golfer on the tee, don’t look at the nasty stuff, look at the positives, and 68 and 67 for two of the three rounds of the rotation in Scotland are perfectly acceptable, giving him a recent set of very acceptable results that include a top-20 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship.

Yannik is improving all the time, has good tee-to-green figures, ranks 10th in greens and 33rd for scrambling over the last three months, and can land his fifth top-10 in Spain from eight starts.

Julien Brun has been much fancied for much of this season and whilst he hasn’t converted yet, is showing enough to think he can reward top-20 backers.

Whilst I wouldn’t usually go for someone with average driving figures, and certainly not around Valders, the three-time Challenge Tour winner somehow gets it to the short stuff and is currently ranking around 40th in the charts for the last 12 weeks. There is something there, and having drifted in the market over the last few weeks, why not take the chance at this idiosyncratic track?

Pick of the Frenchman’s efforts in 2022 have been 25th in Abu Dhabi (3rd at halfway), top-15 at Ras, Kenya and at the MyGolf Life Open, a closing eight place finish at The Belfry, and top-20s at Crans and Le Golf National, suggesting he can handle a bit of trickery.

Add in his efforts in Spain at one level down – 1/2/9/11/12/20 in eight starts – and it is just a matter of time before he rewards long-suffering backers with an each-way return. This week, I’ll play it a touch safer.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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