The 2023 Open Championship returns to Royal Liverpool Golf Club to play the 151st edition of the tournament.

The last time the Open Championship was held at Royal Liverpool, Rory McIlroy emerged victorious. The Northern Irishman was in control for much of tournament, and finished two strokes clear of chasers Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. 

Royal Liverpool Golf Club is located in Wirral in Merseyside, England in the small town of “Hoylake”. Hoylake is the name most golf fans now use to refer to the course, which was founded in 1869. 2023 will mark the 13th time the club will host the Open Championship.

Hoylake is a magnificent par-71 that now measures 7,383 yards (73 yards longer than 2014), making it a relatively short major championship track by today’s standards. The greens are a mix comprised of Bentgrass, Poa Annua and Fescue. As usual, Hoylake’s difficulty will be largely impacted by the weather. 

There have been changes made to the course since we last saw it in 2014. In addition to the 73 yards of extra yardage, it’s been changed from a par 72 to a par 71, and the par-3 17th is brand new. Additionally, the 10th hold has been changed from a 532-yard par-5 to a 507-yard par-4.

There are 156 players in the field this week, with the top 70 and ties making it to the weekend. As expected, almost all of the world’s top players will be in attendance this week seeking a highly coveted Claret Jug.

Past Winners at The Open Championship

• 2022: Cameron Smith (-20)
• 2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
• 2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
• 2018: Francesco Molinari (-8)
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
• 2016: Henrik Stenson (-20)
• 2015: Zach Johnson (-15)
• 2014: Rory McIlroy (-17) (Royal Liverpool)
• 2013: Phil Mickelson (-3)
• 2012: Ernie Els (-7)
• 2011: Darren Clarke (-5)
• 2010: Louis Oosthuizen (-16)

5 Key Stats For Royal Liverpool

Let’s take a look at the five most important metrics at Hoylake and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

The most important statistic this week is Strokes Gained: Approach. Approach play is typically the best way to measure current form, and players don’t win The Open out of nowhere. The winner this week will likely be a player who’s coming into the week playing well. 

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+40.0)
2. Russell Henley (+27.6) 
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+27.4) 
4. Adam Schenk (+25.9)
5. Collin Morikawa (+24.3) 

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Last year, Cameron Smith won The Open at St. Andrews without having to be incredibly precise off the tee. I don’t believe that will be the case at Hoylake this week. Players will be asking for trouble if they miss too many fairways around this place. Both Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won at Royal Liverpool by playing out of the fairway. 

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+27.6) 
2. Patrick Cantlay (+22.3) 
3. Rory McIlroy (+21.9) 
4. Viktor Hovland (+20.6)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+17.6)

Greens in Regulation Gained

I strongly believe the best ball strikers will reign supreme this week at Hoylake. The Open typically asks for creativity and shot making, and it may again this year, but I believe traditional ball strikers who are efficient from tee to green will have a major advantage in this major. 

Greens in Regulation Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+51.5) 
2. Collin Morikawa (+40.1)
3. Jon Rahm (+38.0)
4. Corey Conners (+34.8)
5. Rory McIlroy (+31.9) 

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Windy Conditions)

Wind is always going to be a factor when playing in an Open Championship, especially at Hoylake. Even if the wind speed doesn’t get extremely high, it will still be a factor in club selection and execution. Players who have experience playing in windy conditions will have an advantage this week. 

Total Strokes: Total (Windy Conditions) in past 24 rounds:

1. Keegan Bradley (+51.2)
2. Tony Finau (+44.7)
3. Jon Rahm (+39.7)
4. Justin Thomas (+39.0)
5. Corey Conners (+38.1) 

Strokes Gained: Par 5

Although there are now only three par 5’s at Hoylake, they are remarkably important. In 2014, we saw Rory McIlroy do the majority of his scoring on the par 5’s. It’s likely that the winning score this week will be somewhere between fifteen and twenty under par, therefore it’s an absolute necessity that players take advantage of the par 5’s if they want to raise the claret jug on Sunday. 

Strokes Gained: Par 5 in past 24 rounds:

1. Rickie Fowler (+27.7) 
2. Jordan Spieth (+16.1)
3. Andrew Putnam (+15.8) 
4. Patrick Cantlay (+13.8)
5. Scottie Scheffler (+13.0) 

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (27%); SG: Par 5 (14%);SG: OTT (24%); SG: T2G Windy Conditions (14%) ; and Greens in Regulation (20%)

1. Scottie Scheffler 
2. Collin Morikawa 
3. Jon Rahm 
4. Corey Conners 
5. Patrick Cantlay 
6. Jordan Spieth 
7. Gary Woodland 
8. Tommy Fleetwood 
9. Xander Schauffele 
10. Rory McIlroy 
11. Rickie Fowler 
12. Tony Finau 
13. Tyrrell Hatton 
14. Shane Lowry 
15. Dustin Johnson 
16. Viktor Hovland 
17. Adam Scott 
18. Si Woo Kim 
19. Wyndham Clark 
20. Tom Kim 
21. Joaquin Niemann 

2023 Open Championship Picks

Viktor Hovland +2200 (DraftKings)

I’ve had Royal Liverpool circled for Viktor Hovland for almost a year now, and recent results have only strengthened my resolve on the mega-talented 25-year-old.

Among the many reasons I believe in Hovland this week is the fact that he has developed the necessary scar tissue in major championships over the past year. He found himself in the final group with Rory McIlroy at St. Andrews last year, but struggled on Sunday, shooting 74 to fall into a tie for fourth. The very next major, Vik found himself in the penultimate group at The Masters before struggling on Sunday once again with another 74. That didn’t discourage him, Hovland was once again squarely in contention at the PGA Championship. He battled with Brooks Koepka in the final group for most of the day, but got caught in the face of a bunker, derailing his chances and eventually finished in a tie for second. Finishes of 4th, 7th, 2nd and 19th in his past four major championships tell me he’s paid his dues and is now ready to break through at Hoylake.

At the Open Championship, wins rarely come from out of nowhere and a player has had to have a strong season leading up to the event to raise the claret jug. Hovland’s win at Muirfield Village was extremely impressive and is the biggest win of Hovland’s career to date. The Norwegian had won lesser events in the past, but his win at Jack’s place showed that he can go toe-to-toe with one of the strongest fields in golf with a designated event tag and get the job done.

Hoylake should suit Hovland perfectly. With out of bounds and fescue prevalent all over the course, long and straight off the tee will be the recipe. Viktor ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and can get incredibly hot with his irons. The slow greens on the course should also benefit Hovland.

On Sunday, a Norwegian superstar will emerge at the 151st Open Championship.

A ?????????? shot from Viktor Hovland @ScottishOpen ? pic.twitter.com/ESQCNvIDJ2

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 14, 2023

Patrick Cantlay +2700 (FanDuel)

Patrick Cantlay has had a strong year in major championships and is quite possibly the best player on Tour without a major victory to his name. This season, he’s finished 14th at The Masters, 9th at the PGA Championship and 14th at the U.S. Open. Overall, he’s finished in the top-14 in five consecutive majors. 

Last week, Cantlay missed the cut at the Scottish Open, but that shouldn’t turn bettors off as we learned with Collin Morikawa back in 2021 who finished 71st at the Renaissance Club and expressed frustration with his iron play. Despite the missed cut, Cantlay still managed to gain strokes both off the tee and on approach for his two days of action. In the end, all the missed cut did was cause Cantlay to fall down the odds board a bit, which is in part the reason I’m backing him this week.

Last year, Cantlay finished in 8th place at St. Andrews, which helps with the confidence that the 31-year-old can figure out links golf enough to contend. Hoylake should be an even better fit for Cantlay who, in his past 24 rounds, ranks 2nd in strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and in Strokes Gained: Par 5.

Cantlay has yet to find himself deep into contention at a major, which is a concern. However, I believe he’s a top-6 player in the world and the betting number is right to take a shot on such a talented player.

Practice reps @TheOpen . pic.twitter.com/vm5ztRu6VI

— Patrick Cantlay (@patrick_cantlay) July 17, 2023

Dustin Johnson +3500 (DraftKings)

Dustin Johnson comes into the 151st Open Championship playing much better golf than he’d been playing heading into the previous three major championships. He’s also been fantastic in Open Championships throughout his career. DJ has finished in the top-10 in six of his past 13 Open Championships, including a tie for 6th at St. Andrews last year. 

Although he had a rough weekend at Oak Hill, Johnson has been in the spotlight in both of his last two major starts. At the PGA Championship, he opened with a 67 and sat just one back of the first-round lead. At the U.S. Open, he was in contention for most of the week and finished in 10th place. More importantly, Dustin’s supreme ball striking was on full display at Los Angeles Country Club. He gained 11.4 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 5th for the week.

Johnson played at Royal Liverpool in the 2014 Open Championship, finishing in 12th place. The finishing position doesn’t tell the whole story, as he was firmly in contention heading into the weekend. Johnson shot a second-round 65, which was the low round of the day and put him in 2nd place at round’s end.

Since the U.S. Open, the two-time major champion has been playing well on the LIV Tour. He finished T8 at Valderrama and 5th in London. At Centurion, he ranked 3rd for the week in birdies, which is a sign that his game is coming together.

Dustin Johnson is one of the best major championship performers of this decade and should not be discounted at Hoylake this week.

Dustin Johnson claims victory in Tulsa! Birdies 18 to get into the playoff, birdies it again for the win!

A strong finish as he heads into the PGA Championship! #LIVGolf #LIVGolfTulsa

DJ on his plans tonight "No celebration, right back to work". pic.twitter.com/vq55ndG7Ey

— LIV Golf Updates (@LIVGolfUpdates) May 14, 2023

Bryson DeChambeau +6500 (DraftKings)

It’s been quite a while since Bryson DeChambeau has won a golf tournament, but I believe he will soon regain his position among the top ten players in the world. Since he lost weight and focused on trying to play how he did back in 2019, the results have been increasingly positive. 

In his last two majors, DeChambeau has finished 4th at the PGA Championship and 20th at the U.S. Open. After that, he finished 2nd at LIV Valderrama and 11th at LIV London.

The flat landscape at Royal Liverpool should suit Bryson nicely, as he often struggles with his yardages when hitting off sloping lies (see: Augusta National). He’s dialed the driver back a bit and should be able to club down at Hoylake to keep the ball in the fairway. He finished in a tie for 8th last year at St. Andrews, which shows he can play links golf when in form.

DeChambeau winning the Open Championship would be surprising to some, but I believe the best is still yet to come for the mercurial 29-year-old.

Bryson DeChambeau sticks the landing ??#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/i6acbs3vnm

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2023

Adam Scott +8000 (DraftKings)

Adam Scott has spent the last decade or so looking to get into position to win his second major championship. I believe Hoylake is one of his last chances to accomplish that goal.

Scott is no stranger to Royal Liverpool. The Aussie finished in a tie for 5th at the 2014 Open Championship and was in contention for most of the week. He shot three rounds in the 60’s (68-73-69-66). Yes, Scott was the number one ranked player in the world in 2014, but there’s no doubt that Hoylake suits his game.

Scott’s Open Championship resume is tough to beat. He’s finished in the top-22 in six of his past Open starts, including three of those in the top-5. He’s a terrific links golf player who almost always performs well in the UK. Last week’s Scottish Open didn’t go as planned for Scott, but he shot a second round 67, which is all I needed to see from him in terms of form coming into this week.

Winning the 151st Open Championship would do wonders for the 43-year old’s legacy, and I believe he still has the game to raise the Claret Jug in the twilight of his career.

Adam Scott's swing …

A thing of beauty. ? pic.twitter.com/Xbsc9mhYZk

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) December 11, 2019

Henrik Stenson +50000 (FanDuel)

Henrik Stenson Top-20 +950 (FanDuel)

In what is officially the longest odds player I’ve ever tipped; I am taking a shot on Henrik Stenson at 500-1. The Swede’s game is starting to come around, and I believe he feels like he has a lot to prove this week. 

When speaking with The Guardian, Stenson shared his thoughts on his chances this week.

“I look to prove people wrong at times – that can be a motivator. There’s no question no matter whatever tour you are playing is competitive. You always want to beat whoever is in front of you. I am confident that playing well, I can have a good Open Championship.”

Henrik has finished in the top-6 in two of his past three starts on the LIV Tour, including a tie for 6th in London. At Centurion, Stenson ranked 2nd in fairways hit and 3rd in greens in regulation. That tee-to-green precision is exactly what is required to compete at Hoylake, and a dialed in Henrik Stenson is dangerous.

The Ice Man may be 47-years-old, but after he had his Ryder Cup captaincy removed he’s out to send a message at Hoylake and I won’t rule him out at long odds.