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Vincenzi’s 2023 Ryder Cup betting preview: Justin Thomas ready to silence doubters in Rome

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After a long, five-year wait, the 2023 Ryder Cup is back on European soil.

In 2021, the United States team won in dominating fashion, 19-9. The win marked the first time that the U.S. won in back-to-back home Ryder Cups since 1979 and 1983.

The last time the Europeans hosted the Ryder Cup was 2018, where they won convincingly 17.5-10.5 at Le Golf National in France.

Europe has won seven of the last ten editions of the premier golfing showcase. However, the U.S. has won two of the past three competitions and entire this latest affair as the favorite. 

Marco Simone is a par-71, measuring at 7,268 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The fairways are comprised of paspalum and the rough is fescue. The course was designed by Jim Fazio and David Mezzacane and is located 10 miles from the center of the Rome and is surrounded by the green of the Roman countryside. The course has hosted the last three Italian Open’s on the DP World Tour. 

Prediction

I bet Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +185 on multiple occasions between October of 2021 and April of 2023, but the line has plummeted over the past few weeks. The United States are -160 and Europe is +130 as it stands now.

The last extremely close Ryder Cup we’ve seen was in 2012 when the European Team came back to stun the United States at Medinah by a score of 14.5 to 13.5. I believe 2023 is the year we finally get another excruciatingly close finish on Sunday at the Ryder Cup and it will come down to the last few matches.

Therefore, I still believe the value lies with Europe and would bet it at any number better than +120.

Top European Point Scorer: Ludvig Aberg +1800 (Caesars)

Prior to Ludvig Aberg’s victory at the Omega European Masters, there was some debate as to whether or not Ludvig Aberg was deserving of a captain’s pick with such little experience in professional golf. However, I believe Aberg’s spot was long secured whether or not he won at Crans. Donald was paired with Aberg at Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic and was awestruck by his talent. From then on, it was a foregone conclusion that the young Swede would be in Rome, for better or worse.

Given his skill set and recent play, I strongly believe Aberg will be paired with either Viktor Hovland or Rory McIlroy over the first few days of the Ryder Cup. Marco Simone is a difficult course off the tee, and Aberg is already one of the best in the world in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He should set up perfectly for the golf course.

Playing with one of Europe’s strongest players will increase the likelihood of Aberg accruing points over the fourball and foursome portion of the event, so the pairing is crucial. In the team’s scouting trip to Rome, Aberg played with Hovland in a match against McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, so that could give a sneak peak into Donald’s plans for Rome.

Aberg will have to compete with his playing companions for top scorer, but at more than three times the odds, I believe Aberg carries significant value in this market.

Top United States Point Scorer: Justin Thomas (+1200 via BetRivers), Top Captain’s Pick (+450 via DraftKings)

The inclusion of Justin Thomas in this year’s Ryder Cup was controversial. The two-time major champion had arguably the worst season of his career, failing to make the FedEx Cup playoffs and missing the cut in five of his last eight starts to end the season.

Despite the struggles all year, JT has seemed to turn a corner this fall, and should thrive in the format that he’s been so successful at throughout his career.

At the Fortinet Championship, Thomas finished in 5th place and gained 6.7 strokes on the field on approach, which was his best performance in that category since last year. He has worked tirelessly over the past few months to get ready for the Ryder Cup, and I believe he will perform well.

JT is a combined 16-5-2 in Ryder Cup’s and President’s Cups and the format undoubtedly brings out the best in the fiery competitor. Like it or not, Thomas is the heart and soul of the American side. For that reason, I strongly believe Thomas will play a minimum of four times on the week, with five being a real possibility. The most important aspect of betting this market is identifying the players who will play the most, and his track record with Jordan Spieth and relationship with Zach Johnson would indicate he’ll be out there for much of the competition.

We are being offered a discounted price on Thomas for his poor 2023, but he will have every opportunity to turn it around at Marco Simone.

Props

Correct Score: Europe 14.5, USA 13.5 (+1300 via DraftKings)

Correct Score: USA 14.5, Europe 13.5 (+1000 via DraftKings)

Last week, we saw the Solheim Cup come down to the wire, and I believe a similar scenario will unfold at the Ryder Cup. There hasn’t been a down-to-the-wire Ryder Cup since Medinah and 2012, but that will change this year. These teams are as evenly matched as I can remember, and the home soil advantage will help neutralize the U.S. team’s slightly superior depth. These odds are long enough to sprinkle and hope for a spectacular finish down the stretch.

 

19th Hole

‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish

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An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.

However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.

Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.

Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”

Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.

Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.

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How a late golf ball change helped Cameron Young win for first time on PGA Tour

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Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.

Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.

Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.

Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.

“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course.  Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”

According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.

“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”

Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.

Check out Young’s winning WITB here.

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Rickie Fowler makes equipment change to ‘something that’s a little easier on the body’

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Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.

Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.

Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.

The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.

Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”

“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”

Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.

However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.

“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”

Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.

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