After a long, five-year wait, the 2023 Ryder Cup is back on European soil.

In 2021, the United States team won in dominating fashion, 19-9. The win marked the first time that the U.S. won in back-to-back home Ryder Cups since 1979 and 1983.

The last time the Europeans hosted the Ryder Cup was 2018, where they won convincingly 17.5-10.5 at Le Golf National in France.

Europe has won seven of the last ten editions of the premier golfing showcase. However, the U.S. has won two of the past three competitions and entire this latest affair as the favorite. 

Marco Simone is a par-71, measuring at 7,268 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The fairways are comprised of paspalum and the rough is fescue. The course was designed by Jim Fazio and David Mezzacane and is located 10 miles from the center of the Rome and is surrounded by the green of the Roman countryside. The course has hosted the last three Italian Open’s on the DP World Tour. 

Prediction

I bet Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +185 on multiple occasions between October of 2021 and April of 2023, but the line has plummeted over the past few weeks. The United States are -160 and Europe is +130 as it stands now.

The last extremely close Ryder Cup we’ve seen was in 2012 when the European Team came back to stun the United States at Medinah by a score of 14.5 to 13.5. I believe 2023 is the year we finally get another excruciatingly close finish on Sunday at the Ryder Cup and it will come down to the last few matches.

Therefore, I still believe the value lies with Europe and would bet it at any number better than +120.

Top European Point Scorer: Ludvig Aberg +1800 (Caesars)

Prior to Ludvig Aberg’s victory at the Omega European Masters, there was some debate as to whether or not Ludvig Aberg was deserving of a captain’s pick with such little experience in professional golf. However, I believe Aberg’s spot was long secured whether or not he won at Crans. Donald was paired with Aberg at Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic and was awestruck by his talent. From then on, it was a foregone conclusion that the young Swede would be in Rome, for better or worse.

Given his skill set and recent play, I strongly believe Aberg will be paired with either Viktor Hovland or Rory McIlroy over the first few days of the Ryder Cup. Marco Simone is a difficult course off the tee, and Aberg is already one of the best in the world in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He should set up perfectly for the golf course.

Playing with one of Europe’s strongest players will increase the likelihood of Aberg accruing points over the fourball and foursome portion of the event, so the pairing is crucial. In the team’s scouting trip to Rome, Aberg played with Hovland in a match against McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood, so that could give a sneak peak into Donald’s plans for Rome.

Aberg will have to compete with his playing companions for top scorer, but at more than three times the odds, I believe Aberg carries significant value in this market.

Top United States Point Scorer: Justin Thomas (+1200 via BetRivers), Top Captain’s Pick (+450 via DraftKings)

The inclusion of Justin Thomas in this year’s Ryder Cup was controversial. The two-time major champion had arguably the worst season of his career, failing to make the FedEx Cup playoffs and missing the cut in five of his last eight starts to end the season.

Despite the struggles all year, JT has seemed to turn a corner this fall, and should thrive in the format that he’s been so successful at throughout his career.

At the Fortinet Championship, Thomas finished in 5th place and gained 6.7 strokes on the field on approach, which was his best performance in that category since last year. He has worked tirelessly over the past few months to get ready for the Ryder Cup, and I believe he will perform well.

JT is a combined 16-5-2 in Ryder Cup’s and President’s Cups and the format undoubtedly brings out the best in the fiery competitor. Like it or not, Thomas is the heart and soul of the American side. For that reason, I strongly believe Thomas will play a minimum of four times on the week, with five being a real possibility. The most important aspect of betting this market is identifying the players who will play the most, and his track record with Jordan Spieth and relationship with Zach Johnson would indicate he’ll be out there for much of the competition.

We are being offered a discounted price on Thomas for his poor 2023, but he will have every opportunity to turn it around at Marco Simone.

Props

Correct Score: Europe 14.5, USA 13.5 (+1300 via DraftKings)

Correct Score: USA 14.5, Europe 13.5 (+1000 via DraftKings)

Last week, we saw the Solheim Cup come down to the wire, and I believe a similar scenario will unfold at the Ryder Cup. There hasn’t been a down-to-the-wire Ryder Cup since Medinah and 2012, but that will change this year. These teams are as evenly matched as I can remember, and the home soil advantage will help neutralize the U.S. team’s slightly superior depth. These odds are long enough to sprinkle and hope for a spectacular finish down the stretch.