19th Hole
Vincenzi’s The Sentry betting preview: Spieth primed for fast start to 2024
The PGA Tour makes it return this week as we head to the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui to play the Sentry. The course is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards.
The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut event and usually plays pretty easy. Six of the past seven winners have finished with a score of -22 or better, and the 2022 champion, Cameron Smith, set the tournament record by finishing at -34. Jon Rahm went low in 2023 as well, finishing at -27. Wide fairways and soft greens make the event scoreable, but coastal wind and elevation changes can occasionally make some shots difficult.
The field will feature 59 of the world’s top golfers including Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tony Finau and Jordan Spieth. The new qualification rules allow for anyone in the top 50 in the final FedEx Cup points last season to take part in the event as well as winners from last season.
Past Winners at The Sentry
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
- 2021: Harris English (-25)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
- 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-22)
- 2016: Jordan Spieth (-30)
- 2015: Patrick Reed (-21)
Let’s take a look at several metrics for Kapalua’s Plantation Course to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua (78.9%), just getting on the putting surface won’t cut it. In a very low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.
Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+32.3
- Lucas Glover (+29.5)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2)
- J.T. Poston (+22.8)
- Xander Schauffele (+21.9)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with a strong off-the-tee game should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters.
Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in past 24 rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+24.7)
- Scottie Scheffler (+24.2)
- Viktor Hovland (+21.6)
- Byeong Hun An (+18.8)
- Corey Conners (+17.8)
Proximity 100-125 Yards
With a good deal of short par 4s on the course and easy-to-hit fairways, golfers will have wedges in their hands looking to attack pins. Historically, wedge play has been a major factor in determining a winner in Maui, and I expect that to continue in the 2024 edition.
Proximity 100-125 in past 24 rounds:
- Hideki Matsuyama (+13.0)
- Camilo Villegas (+12.4)
- Brendon Todd (+10.7)
- Lucas Glover (+7.8)
- Russell Henley (+7.7)
Strokes Gained: Par 5
Taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. Historically, par-5 scoring has been more indicative of the winner at this tournament than par-3 or par-4 scoring. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par-5 holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.
Total Strokes Gained: Par 5 in Past 24 rounds
- Cameron Young (+13.6)
- Scottie Scheffler (+11.8)
- Erik Van Rooyen (+11.1)
- Lee Hodges (+11.0)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+10.3)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro)
The Bermudagrass greens at Kapalua are notoriously slow. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to make a lot of putts to win, and those who prefer putting on slow Bermuda should have the advantage. There have been a good deal of elite putters (Smith, Patrick Reed, Jordan Spieth) who have had great success at Kapalua in the past.
Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Andrew Putnam (+1.5)
- Jordan Spieth (+0.8)
- Patrick Cantlay (+0.6)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.5)
- J.T. Poston (+0.4)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) SG: OTT (20%); SG: Par 5 (20%); Prox 100-125 (15%); and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) (Velcro) (15%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
- Collin Morikawa (+2800)
- Xander Schauffele (+1800)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
- Russell Henley (+2000)
- Viktor Hovland (+1200)
- Lucas Glover (+2000)
- Adam Svensson (+6000)
- Tom Kim (+2000)
- J.T. Poston (+1200)
2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks
Jordan Spieth +2800 (BetRivers):
Jordan Spieth was winless in 2023 but continued to play solid golf, finishing 27th in the FedEx Cup standings. The three-time major champion played in Tiger Woods’ Hero World Challenge and showed that he’s been working on his game in the off-season. Spieth finished 6th in the event and shot four rounds under par.
Jordan has had success at Kapalua, winning the tournament in 2016 and also has a 2nd (2014), 3rd (2017) and 9th (2018). In his past 24 rounds at the course, Spieth ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total amongst those playing in the event.
The PGA Tour could certainly benefit from a star player like Jordan Spieth starting off 2024 hot, and I believe he has a chance to get an early win at The Sentry.
Rickie Fowler +3500 (DraftKings):
Rickie Fowler is coming off his best season in a long while and his work with Butch Harmon has clearly paid dividends. The 35-year-old broke through for a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and had a few additional close calls, including a fantastic performance at the U.S. Open where he finished runner-up to Wyndham Clark.
Fowler has been incredibly consistent over the course of his career at Kapalua. He’s played the event four times since 2013, and boasts finishes of 6th (2013), 5th (2016), 4th (2018) and 5th (2020). It appears that when Rickie is playing well, he finishes near the top of the Sentry.
Rickie certainly has the type of game that should thrive at Kapalua. He is solid with his wedges (20th in the field) and putts well on slow Bermudagrass greens (9th in the field). The PGA Tour season could get off to a flying start with one of the most popular players on Tour winning the first signature event of the season.
Jason Day +5000 (BetRivers):
Jason Day had a resurgent 2023, winning for the first time in five years at the AT&T Byron Nelson. and if his fall has been any indication, he has no plans on slowing down in 2024. He missed a few cuts after the win, but still managed a runner-up finish at the Open Championship.
Day’s strong season continued into the fall. The Australian and his partner Lydia Ko won the Grant Thornton Invitational, which was closely contested and likely tested his nerves a bit down the stretch. Day then finished 11th at the Hero World Challenge but was in contention going into Sunday prior to a disappointing 74 in the final round.
Day hasn’t played at Kapalua since 2019, but prior to that, he had some encouraging results at the course. He finished 3rd in 2015 and 10th in 2016. Additionally, Australians have won six times in the past.
I don’t typically love backing Day in events where the winner needs to go extremely low, but the 36-year-old managed to reach -23 in his win in Texas last season. A Jason Day who’s shown signs of solid recent form at 50-1 in a 59-man field is too much value to pass up to start the season.
19th Hole
‘Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight’ – LPGA pro offers candid take following rough AIG Women’s Open finish
An opening round of 77 left LPGA pro Jenny Shin with a mountain to climb at last week’s AIG Women’s Open.
However, fighting back with rounds of 69 and 67, Shin found herself six shots off the lead and just outside the top 10 heading into Sunday as she went in search of her first major victory.
Shin, who won the US Girls’ Junior at just 13, couldn’t back those rounds up on Sunday, though, and after playing her opening nine holes of the final round in level par, she then bogeyed three holes coming home to slip down the leaderboard and eventually finish T23.
Taking to X following the final round, Shin offered a frustrated and honest take on how she was feeling, posting: “Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish.”
Don’t think I’ll sleep well tonight. What a crappy way to finish
— Jenny Shin (@JennyShin_LPGA) August 3, 2025
Shin has made 11 cuts in 13 starts on the LPGA Tour this season, but has been plagued by frustrating Sunday finishes throughout the year. Shin ranks 102nd on tour this year out of 155 for Round 4 scoring in 2025.
Miyu Yamashita won the 2025 AIG Women’s Open with a composed final round of 70 to win her first major of her career by two strokes.
Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship on Sunday for his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Young dominated all weekend at TPC Sedgefield, running away from the pack to win by six strokes and put himself in contention for a Ryder Cup pick in September.
Ahead of the event, the 28-year-old switched to a Pro V1x prototype golf ball for the first time, following recent testing sessions with the Titleist Golf Ball R&D team.
Interestingly, Young played a practice round accompanied by Fordie Pitts, Titleist’s Director of Tour Research & Validation, at TPC Schedule early last week with both his usual Pro V1 Left Dot ball and the new Pro V1x prototype.
Per Titleist, by the second hole Young was exclusively hitting shots with the Pro V1x prototype.
“We weren’t sure if he was going to test it this week, but as he was warming up, he asked to hit a couple on the range,” Pitts said. “He was then curious to see some shots out on the course. Performance-wise, he was hitting tight draws everywhere. His misses were staying more in play. He hit some, what he would call ‘11 o’clock shots,’ where again he’s taking a little something off it. He had great control there.”
According to Titleist, the main validation came on Tuesday on the seventh hole of his practice round. The par 3 that played between 184 and 225 yards during the tournament called for a 5-iron from Young, or so he thought. Believing there was “no way” he could get a 6-iron to the flag with his Left Dot, Young struck a 5-iron with the Pro V1x prototype and was stunned to see the ball land right by the hole.
“He then hits this 6-iron [with the Pro V1x prototype] absolutely dead at the flag, and it lands right next to the pin, ending up just past it,” Pitts said. “And his response was, ‘remarkable.’ He couldn’t believe that he got that club there.”
Following nine holes on Tuesday and a further nine on Wednesday, Young asked the Titleist team to put the ProV1x balls in his locker. The rest, as they say, is history.
Rickie Fowler fired an opening round of one-under par on Thursday at the Wyndham Championship, as the Californian looks to make a FedEx Cup playoff push.
Fowler is currently 61st in the standings, so will need a strong couple of weeks to extend his season until the BMW Championship, where only the top 50 in the standings will tee it up.
Heading into the final stretch of the season, Fowler has made an equipment switch of note, changing into new iron shafts, as well as making a switch to his driver shaft.
The 36-year-old revealed this week that he has switched from his usual KBS Tour C-Taper 125-gram steel shafts to the graphite Aerotech SteelFiber 125cw shafts in his Cobra King Tour irons, a change he first put into play at last month’s Travelers Championship.
Speaking on the change to reporters this week, Fowler made note that the graphite shafts offer “something that’s a little easier on the body.”
“I mean, went to the week of Travelers, so been in for, I guess that’s a little over a month now. Something that’s a little easier on the body and seemed to get very similar numbers to where I was at. Yeah, it’s gone well so far.”
Fowler has also made a driver shaft change, switching out his Mitsubishi Diamana WB 73 TX for a UST Mamiya Lin-Q Proto V1 6 TX driver shaft in his Cobra DS-Adapt X, which he first implemented a couple of weeks ago at the John Deere Classic.
However, according to Fowler himself, the testing and potential changes are not done yet.
“Probably do some more testing in some different weight configurations with them once I get some time. Yeah, I feel like we’re always trying to search, one, to get better but are there ways to make things easier, whether that’s physically, mentally, whatever it may be. So yeah, I thought they were good enough to obviously put into play and looking forward to doing some more testing.”
Fowler gets his second round at TPC Sedgefield underway at 7.23 a.m ET on Friday.
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