Moving Day is a term applied to round three of a four-round tournament. It suggests that competitors need a solid or spectacular round on Saturday, in order to position themselves for potential Sunday victory. Among the favorites in contention after 36 holes, only Scottie Scheffler fell out of contention. The Texan suffered a par-double-bogey-bogey start, and could not recover. Three more bogeys damaged his score even more. Scheffler begins day four at seven-under par, eight shots behind the leaders.

As for those leaders, it’s a familiar pair, and we’ll get to them. We saw Justin Rose return to major-championship contention for the first time in a while. He’ll need 63 on Sunday to matter, but it’s still good to see the two-time major winner (Olympic Gold counts!) in the mix. Bryson DeChambeau carried the LIV flag into the day-four conversation, and with a low 60s score, he’ll have a chance at a second major title. Even the home-state feloow, Justin Thomas, found a way to matter. He’s on the outside, looking in, but a 60 is not inconceivable, and 11-under would certainly win the day, if not the week.

UNBELIEVABLE! Justin. Thomas.

The Kentucky guy holes out for birdie! #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/YVeNslCW37

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024

1. Xander holds the lead

There’s a burden that comes with posting a score of 62. Media, fans, and even the player hope and even expect to see it again. Xander Schauffele wasn’t on track to repeat that number of Saturday, but he stood in the middle of the 15th fairway and thought about how low he could go. Three-under par on the day, coming off birdie at 14, with a pitch to the green, and he went for the flag and missed.

Schauffele made an unanticipated mistake and it cost him two shots. His most immediate competitor was in his group and made birdie, retrieving three shots in one hole. That’s the sort of moment that goes down in history as a gut check. Schauffele’s gut responded. He leveled the wings with par at 16, then closed with birdies at 17 and 18, to returne to 15-under par. The X Man will tee off again in the final pairing, and take a run at his first major title. The fifteenth hole might loom large again in the outcome; hopefully, a lesson has been learned!

This ball wanted to build some suspense!

Xander Schauffele holds on to the top spot with this putt from distance ???#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/kM4LZwUSLu

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024

2. Morikawa can taste another PGA

For two years, Collin Morikawa was that guy. He won this tournament in 2020, then collected the Open Championship jug at Sandwich in 2021. Win two majors, and everyone heads down the career grand slam discussion. Three years on, Morikawa has the same number of majors on his dossier, and two more professional wins to show. He’s probably antsy for another major.

The California native stumbled early on Saturday. He made bogey at the two-shot second hole, then dug in with everything he had. A birdie at three balanced the card, and four more came his way. None was bigger than the three that he made at the 15th, as the leader was making double bogey in his group! Morikawa took a one-shot lead there, then closed with birdie at the last to reach Sunday morning tied at the top with Xander Schauffele.

Sunday will fill with drama, but it won’t involve just that grouping. When Morikawa tees off at 2:35 Louisville time, a move will have been made. Someone close by (one at -14, three at -13, two at -12) will be a few under par, and the thermometer will have risen. Our guess, simply, is that Morikawa will need 66 to win outright on Sunday. 20-under par should get it done, and to go down as one of the greats, he’ll need to be great.

Bounce-back birdie for Collin Morikawa at the 3rd ?#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/enpc0mkbcc

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024

3. Shane shares PGA record

Shane Lowry goes down as one of the most popular major champions of this era. His Open Championship win at Royal Portrush in 2019 kicked off a massive celebration of Irish pride and delight. Lowry hasn’t added to that major total of one, but the cask-chested, smile-and-a-beard doesn’t need to. He’s the sort who can take a two-man win, as he had this season with Rory McIlroy in New Orleans, and elevate its worth. He’s the sort who anchors an international side, as he does every two years in the Ryder Cup.

This week in Kentucky is different. Lowry has the chance to keep the hot hand and claim a second major title. These opportunities don’t come around that often. Lowry was fire on Saturday. He posted the first, sub-thirty nine of the tournament on the outward half. HIs six birdies and three pars gave him 29, and he looked for all the world to be the man to chase. The inward half wasn’t quite as volcanic, but the card was clean, and he came home in 33. His score matched Schauffele’s opening round, for the all-time low, 18-hole score, in PGA Championship history.

What’s to do? Make putts early. Find a way to get back in the zone and ride that spaceship to the final green. Lowry most likely needs to finish Saturday in 65 strokes or fewer, and posting 127 on a major championship weekend is unheard of. That’s why they play, though, isn’t it? Why not Shane, why not today?

A fist pump we’ve been waiting for! ?

Shane Lowry loves it too. #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/BysfhGOeZ3

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024

4. Theegala lost, then found

As far as I was concerned, Sahith Theegala was yesterday’s news. Consecutive bogeys at five and six, supported by zero birdies through eight holes, destined him for the also-ran section of the leader board. I was frightfully incorrect.

Theegala found some inspiration at the ninth tee. Maybe it was a kick in the arse by his caddie, or by him, but a flame ignited. Theegals made the first of six birdies at the outward home hole, and posted 31 coming home. Birdie at the final hole ensured that he would tee off in Sunday’s penultimate group, with Shane Lowry.

It is often written that all should be wary of the wounded, as they fight for survival. Theegala dislocated a rib two weeks ago, at Quail Hollow. This week, he has been under the weather with some bug. With his mind focused on health, rather than score, he has done quite well. If he stays that course, one last round, he might have to do a heavy lift on Sunday, with the Wannamaker trophy in his hands.

Sahith Theegala with the magic touch!#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/jYu5dZcig0

— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 18, 2024

5. The Prediction!

Despite all the kind words I’ve written about the aforementioned four gentlemen, none of them will exit Louisville with the happiest of visages. The winner, however, will not let us down in the smiles department. Viktor Hovland teed off in the final pairing last year, at Oak Hill, and had a front-row seat in the Koepka Koaster, as Brooks Koepka showed the Norwegian how to win a major championship. Rest assured that Hovland took copious notes. His frustration at a Masters missed cut in April has been channeled into his performance this week.

What will go down? Hovland will have at least one holed shot from off the green on Sunday’s outward nine. He’ll find a groove and the putter will warm up quickly. Hovland will sign for the third 62 of the week, but will have to wait as each of the final four golfers has a chance to tie at the final hole. One will, and they will head to a play-off, where Hovland will emerge in overtime.

Viktor Hovland has made back to back birdies to move to T3 ? pic.twitter.com/bdEbcz6DS1

— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) May 18, 2024