This is the week when grown men across the USA wake up as if it were a holiday, and gifts were under a tree. They set alarms for 3 a.m. and put the coffee maker on autopilot. They are useless by noon, but they don’t care. It is Open Championship week, and even though they might not know which of the royals is on deck for this year, it is time for crazy bounces and incredible caroms.

The Open rotation (from there did the term Open Rota devolve) consists of seven royals (St. George’s, St. Andrews, Portrush, Birkdale, Liverpool, Lytham, and this year’s venue, Troon) an honourable (Muirfield) and plain old Carnoustie. That’s nine links in total. It’s fairly easy for aficionados to mistake one for another, until they’ve reached their forties and have seen three to four playings over each. Royal Troon is known for its penchant of identifying one-win-only, major titleists. Of its nine previous Open championships, six of them were claimed by one-off guys. Hats off to Arthur Havers, who got the ball rolling with a one-shot win over Walter Hagen in 1923.

What will you see this week at Royal Troon? Seaside golf for six holes, followed by a highland plunge for the next portion, followed by a return to the lowlands for the concluding measure. The usual amount of Ulex (aka thick stuff that gets sprayed with pesticide anywhere else) and a bunch of shots that should go in, but end in bunkers, paired with others that find the hole after beginning far adrift.

Stephan Jaeger can’t hit it any better, holing out for an eagle on the 13th. pic.twitter.com/NJn3Ga8rpc

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

1. Manifest all you want

Rory McIlroy had more support across the globe than most. It didn’t help him solve the riddle of Royal Troon. Tiger Woods was issued a challenge by a multiple-times, major championship, runner-up. Any motivation in that tossed glove was lost in his 79. Bryson DeChambeau is a publicly humbler lad these days, with a second US Open trophy fresh on the mantel. He also wobbled and bobbled on day one.

Predictions are the fortune of the unwitting. Collisions of time, space, matter, and execution bring low scores on day one at a major championship. When it’s an Open championship, multiply that times five to ten. When we believe too fully, we lose our sense of this. When we predict publicly, we run the sizable risk of scrambled eggs on our faces. Cheer loudly for your favorites, but don’t predict success for a few extra likes or other SocMed bytes of approval. Look no further than Cameron Smith, 2022 champion golfer of the year. He lost to Tiger with 80 and is likely down the road.

Perhaps that was a bit rash. These fellows who fell victim to temperatures, err, scorecards in the high 70s, need a mid-60s round to reach the weekend. No doubt a +3 or +4 total will earn that extension. In order to gain a peek at the leaderboard, they need that same score, plus a lot of help from the winds and the rain. Buckle up, sip your morning java, and enjoy the uneven grounds of links golf.

Reminiscing.

Tiger with some bunker magic on the 16th. pic.twitter.com/qJjD7fEtSI

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

2. Who, who, at minus-two?

There’s a fun group of Really at 70. The gifted putter for whom I always predict impending success (Russell Henley) found two strokes below par, along with a qualifier who happens to own a US Open (Justin Rose) title, a couple of northerners (Nicolai Hojgaard and Alex Noren) and two from the Commonwealth (Canada’s Mackenzie Hughes and England’s Joe Dean.) None of them gave us pause in the run-up to this tournament, and none is likely to be around come Sunday.

None of the quintet made more than five birdies on the day. Only Justin Rose played without a knock from Old Bogey. Making predictions about their odds for success is a fool’s errand, so I’ll say this: Rose has experience in these things. Hojgaard is extremely talented. Hughes ended the Canada curse at that nation’s Open championship in 2023. Noren plays one shot (hard cut) and plays it well. Dean has seven letters in his name. Good luck, lads! We’re pulling for each of you.

Justin Rose to the occasion.@JustinRose99 goes bogey free on Thursday at @RoyalTroonGC. pic.twitter.com/bqkZRanCUQ

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

3. USA PGA Champions in the hunt

I purposely left Xander Schauffele (also at -2) out of point number two. Quintet worked better than sextet, and it also gave Justin Thomas a chum in this segment. Schauffele removed the unwanted and heavy mantle of great player without a major at Valhalla in May. Now he joins Justin Thomas in the company of I have a PGA and I want more. I don’t have statistics to back up this claim, but I wonder if any major beyond the US PGA begets only US PGA winners. So many one-off major champions claimed the US PGA over the decades.

Schauffele played measured golf on day one, with just one bogey against his efforts. Thomas was the antithesis. He posted seven birdies on the day, but gave four shots back. Schauffele truly fits in point number two, as we have no evidence that he will do much beyond consistent play. Thomas is the fellow we want to see. We want to see a go-for-broke approach to this tournament. Fire intelligently at opportunistic flags, and amass birdies as you go. It may not work out for the Kentucky lad, but it’s the only way he knows to win.

We know what Thomas will do when he hits a bad patch. He went double-single at 12 and 13 on Thursday, but came home in minus-two. That counts for something.

Justin Thomas chips in for birdie.

Follow his progress on https://t.co/Y0Ljiq6Hze pic.twitter.com/Ov2s93YsLr

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

4. Shane Lowry needs a bookend

Speaking of manifesting, remember that 2021 Open Championship? It was the one that followed on the heels of Royal St. George’s, which was canceled, but not in that manner. RSG was canceled thanks to the pandemic. The links golf world was desperate for a return to normalcy in 2021, and it manifested all its love for area lad Rory McIlroy. Roars promptly drove OOB on his first tee ball and missed the cut. Stepping in for Northern Ireland was a man from the south, Shane Lowry. He played magnificent golf over the great links, and claimed his first major title. Seems at odds with what I wrote about one-off major winners, right? Short memory.

Lowry held the lead for just a brief while on Friday. He closed with a stellar birdie at the last, to cap a flawless 66. His five birdies were spread over a short, a long, and three middle-length holes. He is a man at home on Open courses, and he seems bent on restating his importance to the game. I recently referenced him as part of the Old Guard of Euro Ryder Cup, and received a healthy dose of vitriol in return. A win for Lowry at Troon will mark his return to import, and a first individual title since September of 2022.

A 66 on Thursday for Shane Lowry.

The Irishman leads The 152nd Open. pic.twitter.com/CdcUTUcAKC

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

5. Daniel Brown is upside down

Remember when Adam Hadwin got tackled by security at the 2023 Canadian Open? Dan Brown looks like that guy. He’s not the novelist who writes about conspiracy and intrigue in the Vatican, nor is he the quarterback who has led the NY football Giants to mediocrity. He’s a hoodie-wearing, millenial beard-sporting, bro of a guy. Two decades ago, he’d have been mistaken for a delivery person, or a new hire on the grounds crew. How times change!

Brown could not have played a much more, balanced, round on Thursday. Two birdies in his first five, followed by two more at the turn, concluded by two at the close. Like Lowry, zero bogeys. What we don’t know is how he will handle adversity. That’s the problem with clean cards. When the bogey man rises from its murky depths, some golfers chest up, while others fade away. Brown captured his only DP World Tour title last August, in Northern Ireland. He’s in a different test tube rack this week and will show us a great deal about fortitude.

The clubhouse leader: Daniel Brown.

With a round of 65, he leads The 152nd Open. pic.twitter.com/7ZaHAXQp1e

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024