After an agonizing one-week break, the FedEx Fall season will kick off in Napa Valley at the Silverado Resort and Spa to play the Procore Championship. 

The event was once called the Safeway Open and more recently, the Fortinet Championship. Now, Procore Technologies has taken over as the tournament’s sponsor and the tournament will be called the Procore Championship. Although the name has changed multiple times, Silverado’s North Course has been featured on the PGA TOUR since 1968.

The course is a par 72, measuring at 7,166 yards. Silverado features Poa Annua greens that can be tricky, especially as the surface becomes bumpier in the afternoon. The tree-lined fairways aren’t easy to hit, but the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal. Shorter hitters are in play on this relatively short course, and accuracy will be at a premium.

The field will consist of 156 players. With many top players taking some time off before the Presidents Cup, the field won’t be incredibly strong. However, there are some intriguing names in the field including two-time winner of the event, Max Homa as well as Sahith Theegala, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ, Corey Conners, and Matt Kuchar.

Procore Championship betting preview

Past Winners

• 2023: Sahith Theegala (-21)
• 2022: Max Homa (-16)
• 2021: Max Homa (-19)
• 2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
• 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
• 2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
• 2017: Brendan Steele (-15)
• 2016: Brendan Steele (-18)

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Silverado to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Historically, one of the North Course’s defenses will be tightly tucked pin placement, so effective shot-shaping and a higher ball flight may be an advantage this week. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa Annua greens.

Strokes Gained: Approach over past 24 rounds:

1. J.J. Spaun (+0.93) 
2. Luke Clanton (+0.92) 
3. Doug Ghim (+0.89)
4. Keith Mitchell (+0.89)
5. Chez Reavie (+0.81) 

Good Drive Percentage

Hitting fairways in regulation at Silverado is more difficult than Tour average, as players have done so in the past at a rate of only 52.2%. While the rough isn’t extremely long here, controlling spin out of the thick grass is much more difficult than doing so from the fairway. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa Annua greens.

Good Drive Percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Luke Clanton (89.0%)
2. Carson Young (88.7%)
3. Patrick Fishburn (88.4%)
4. Zac Blair (88.1%)
5. Patton Kizzire (87.5%)

Course History

Two-time winners Max Homa (2022 and 2023) and Brendan Steele (2016 and 2017) showed us that past success at Silverado can be an indication of future success at Silverado. 

Course History past 24 rounds:

1. S.H. Kim (+2.38) 
2. Sahith Theegala (+2.14)
3. Brendon Todd (+1.44) 
4. Matt Kuchar (+1.36) 
5. Stewart Cink (+1.16) 

Birdie or Better Percentage

With scores at Silverado potentially approaching the 20 under par range, making plenty of birdies will be a requirement in order to contend this week.

Birdie or Better Percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Luke Clanton (28.8%) 
2. J.J. Spaun (26.6%) 
3. Jhonnatan Vegas (26.4%)
4. Trace Crowe (26.4%) 
5. Michael Thorbjornsen (26.4%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (West Coast Poa Annua)

Poa annua greens on the West Coast can be quite difficult for golfers to adjust to if they don’t have much experience on the surface.

Prior to the 2019 Safeway Open, Phil Mickelson talked about how the type of putting surface is a major factor:

“I think a lot of guys struggle with the Poa annua greens, which is a grass that I grew up playing, so I’m very comfortable on the greens. When you grow up and spend most of your time back east in Florida on the Bermuda, this is a very awkward surface to putt on. The color looks different — it’s hard to sometimes read. But when you’re used to it, I don’t know of much better surfaces than these right here.”

This week it is important to look for the golfers who historically excel on Poa annua.

Total strokes gained in category over past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Montgomery (+1.20) 
2. Max Homa (+1.17)
3. Justin Suh (+1.14)
4. Will Gordon (+0.99)
5. Maverick McNealy (+0.95)

Strokes Gained: Total (California)

Winners such as Sahith Theegala and Max Homa have had major ties to California prior to their wins. California success is undoubtedly a major factor at Silverado. 

Strokes Gained: Total (California) over past 36 rounds:

1. Keith Mitchell (+1.86) 
2. Max Homa (+1.81)
3. Daniel Berger (+1.63) 
4. Sahith Theegala (+1.50) 
5. Eric Cole (+1.41) 

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%), Good Drive Percentage (19%), Birdie or Better Percentage (14%), Course History (14%), SG: California (14%), and SG: Putting (Poa Annua) (14%).

1. Brendon Todd
2. Sam Ryder
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Tom Hoge
5. Doug Ghim
6. Will Gordon
7. Sahith Theegala
8. Zac Blair 
9. J.J. Spaun
10. Dylan Wu

2024 Procore Championship Picks

Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Maverick McNealy had an injury plagued 2023 and began to bounce back at the start of 2024, culminating with a T9 at the PLAYERS in May. Over the off-season, McNealy worked with Butch Harmon to get back to into form and the work has seemingly paid dividends.

McNealy was hot in cold in 2024, but we saw flashes of the player that was once highly regarded as a “can’t miss” prospect coming out of Stanford in 2016. In total, the 28-year-old finished with eight top-20 finishes in 2024, which was his most ever in a calendar year. Although he’s yet to win, the consistency shown this year is a definite step in the right direction.

McNealy made his professional debut at Silverado and has been up-and-down ever since. However, he finished 2nd at the course in 2022, just one shot behind two-time winner Max Homa. Mav is a player who relies heavily on his around the green game and putter. In the field, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting on West Coast POA, which isn’t a surprise given his skill set and comfortability in the area.

I believe in the strides that McNealy has made since working with Butch, particularly off the tee where he’s altered his ball flight from a draw to a baby fade. I’m high on him for the fall where I expect him to get into the mix in some weaker fields than he saw over the course of 2024.

J.J. Spaun +4500 (DraftKings)

J.J. Spaun enters the FedEx Cup Fall season after a scorching hot end to his 2024, where he finished T9 at the 3M Open and T3 at the Wyndham Championship.

Over his past 24 rounds, Spaun ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach, 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 17th in Strokes Gained: Putting. The 34-year-old has it going in all phases of the game and looks like he’s ready to kick off the fall season by contending at a course where he finished T11 last season.

Spaun has always been extremely comfortable playing the state of California. He grew up in Los Angeles and played his college golf at San Diego State University. He also played very well last fall, finishing in the top 13 in three of the five events he played in.

Spaun has one PGA Tour win to his name, and I expect him to be one of the better players this fall and contend for his second over the coming weeks.

Brendon Todd +4500 (DraftKings)

Brendon Todd had what I consider to be an underrated season in 2024. The veteran had six top 25 finishes and ended with a T12 at the Wyndham Championship and a T22 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in a field full of the best players on the PGA Tour.

Throughout his career, Todd has feasted during the fall season. In 2019, he got both of his career wins in the fall and last season he finished in the top 30 in all three of his fall starts, with his best finish (6th) coming at Silverado for the Fortinet Championship.

Over his past 24 rounds, Todd ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Total. Of course, a lot of his success is due to his short game and will need a hot putter to win this event. He also ranks 10th in Birdie or Better Percentage and 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting on West Coast POA. He has had tremendous success at Silverado, finishing T22 in 2021, T9 in 2022 and 6th in 2023.

Todd’s gradual improvement at Silverado combined with his strong form to end 2024 tells me he has the ability to contend this week in Napa.

Beau Hossler+5000 (DraftKings)

Beau Hossler has yet to notch his first PGA Tour victory, which would have come as a major surprise at one point in time. While he’s popped up on leaderboards plenty of times over the past few years, he hasn’t yet shown the ability to close the deal.

Hossler was fantastic during the 2023 fall season, finishing in the top 30 in all six of his starts including a top 15 in his last three starts. He also loves playing in California. The former Haskins award winner is from Rancho Santa Margarita, California and dominated the California amateur scene before going off to the University of Texas.

Beau has been consistent but unspectacular at Silverado. However, I believe he has some of what I call “hidden form” at the golf course where the finishes don’t tell the whole story. In 2022, Hossler was T2 after round two and T3 after round 3 before struggling on Sunday. His 64 in round two was the round of the day.

Over his past 36 rounds in California Hossler ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Total. Last season, Beau played some of his best golf at Torrey Pines (T6) and Pebble Beach (T14) in very strong fields. He loves putting on West Coast POA and I believe if he ever breaks through, it’ll be in The Golden State.

Matt Kuchar +7000 (DraftKings)

The last time we saw (and bet) Matt Kuchar, he was contending at the Wyndham Championship. Due to weather delays, the 46-year-old was forced to play 53 (see what I did there?) holes in roughly 24 hours, which is a tall task for a player on the back-nine of their career.

Kuchar has finished in the top 25 in three of his past five starts. He seemed to find something at the end of the 2024 season and should now be rested and recharged to kick off the FedEx Cup Fall with something to prove. Kuchar was once again at the center of controversy when he decided to take his ball and go home at the end of the Wyndham Championship. Whether you agree with Kuchar’s decision or not (you probably don’t), he has shown throughout his career that he can rise to the occasion when in the spotlight.

As mentioned, Kuchar is in the twilight of his career, and I believe he should only be bet at “his” spots over the next year or two. Silverado is absolutely one of those spots. He’s finished T12 and T7 in his past two trips and ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds. He also ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Total in California.

This week, I’m giving Kuchar a shot at redemption in Napa.

Michael Thorbjornsen +7500 (FanDuel)

In 2024 Michael Thorbjornsen was overshadowed by the likes of Luke Clanton and Nick Dunlap. However, I am still just as bullish on the former Wellesley High School standout as I am on the former two players.

Thorbjornsen played his college golf at Stanford University and did so well enough to rise to the number one player on the PGA Tour University standings. He is a prolific birdie maker and should be comfortable playing on the west coast. Over his last 24 rounds, Thor ranks 4th in Birdie or Better Percentage in the field.

I am not entirely convinced he’s ready to win just yet, but at a generous price in a weak field, it’s worth rolling the dice on a young player with an enormous amount of talent.

Justin Suh +11000 (DraftKings)

Justin Suh was once considered to be one of the best young prospects in the game of golf alongside Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff. That, of course, has not worked out the way Suh would have hoped. However, there is still reason to believe he could develop into a solid PGA Tour player with the ability to win certain events that fit his game.

Justin Suh played some of his best golf over the past few years during the 2023 fall season. He was the 36-hole leader at the ZOZO Championship in October and followed it up with a T4 at the Worldwide Technology Championship. If Suh wants to earn his place on the PGA Tour, the fall season where he can compete against weaker fields is the place to do it.

Suh is most comfortable playing in California and on shorter courses, both of which apply this week. The 2018 Pac-12 Player of the Year grew up playing in the state of California. Suh was a highly decorated amateur golfer with plenty of wins on the West Coast prior to attending USC, where he was one of the best players in the country.

The 27-year-old hasn’t been great this year by any means but has shown signs of life over the past few months including a T11 at the Barracuda Championship in California. He was also T8 through 36 holes at the Wyndham Championship. If there’s a time to take a chance on Suh’s potential, it’s in his home state at a triple digit number on the betting board.