Three rounds of the United States Golf Association’s open championship are recorded for posterity. The leader sits on a pillow of 4 under par. He is one shot clear of two golfers, three ahead of a third, and four beyond a fifth. Those would appear to be the truest contenders for the title of champion USA golfer of the year, but as we know, there is always more to the story. It was at Oakmont that Johnny Miller assembled the most glorious final round in this esteemed championship, back some fifty-two years. His 63 has been bested for tournament low round, but its importance might never be equalled.

In 1981, David Graham played a perfect final round at Merion. He hit all 18 greens in regulation and posted 67. Despite its quintessence, Graham’s score was still four blows higher than Miller’s ageless Sunday. It will take a second bolt of lightning this year for anyone to come from deeper than even par to win the title. There are plenty of candidates, but they will need to fire at flags early and often, make putts, play fiercely and fearlessly, and shoot 62 or 61.

For now, we’ll have a glance at five golfers that, based on their work this week, have a chance to win the 125th playing of the USGA’s open championship. We’ll explain why they ought to win, and suggest what might hold them back. Our gift for prognostication is marginal at best and should never be considered a legal and binding contract. Regardless, we’ll press on with predictions on this Saturday evening of the U.S. Open 2025.

1. Sam Burns

Burns is hailed as one of the top putters on tour. He’s in the Denny McCarthy-Russell Henley tier of flat stick magi. His expertise with the wand is equal parts distance control and interpretation of the subtleties of terrain. On Saturday in Pittsburgh, Burns was all over the course on the first three holes. He missed the first two fairways from the deck, then hit the adjacent fourth fairway from the third tee. Things got better after that, but he wasn’t Fairway Fred by any stretch of the imagination. Two bogeys and three birdies got him to the house with the lead. 69 won’t be enough to win on Sunday, so Burns needs to find something more for round four.

Playing Partner: Adam Scott. His swing is the equal of Tiger’s, but Scott’s major championship tally is but one ahead of Burns.

Why he might win: If the ball is on the green, it has a chance. We write that about everyone and, technically, it is true. The thing is, for Burns, it is statistically true. He makes lots of putts. If he gets one or two early, he’ll boost his confidence and potentially, ride that wave to victory.

Why he won’t win: The tee ball game held Burns back on Saturday. It’s funny to say that about a guy who posted 69, but Burns could be out front by four or five, if he had found the fairway more often. He’ll need to do just that, to take pressure off his entire game, on Sunday.

2. Adam Scott

Adam Scott is the owner of one green jacket and 19 other, top-ten finishes in major championships. On Saturday at Oakmont, he began play with a bogey five at the first hole, then played flawlessly to the end. Scott posted one birde on the front nine, then added three more on the inward half. He nearly caught Sam Burns, but missed a routine, 55-feet putt for birdie at the last. Why was he 55 feet away? We’ll get to that.

Playing Partner: Sam Burns. They will tee off in the final pairing of the day. No pressure, right?

Why he might win: Scott has more major championship experience than the other four golfers mentioned herein, combined. He could have and should have won at least five major titles. He hasn’t but he and his caddie are odds-on favorites to emerge victorious on Sunday.

Why he won’t win: His approach game has not been the equal of the other facets of his game. He needs to have looks from 20 feet, not 55 feet. There might also be some scar tissue from those 19 oh-so-close finishes at majors.

3. J.J. Spaun

J.J. Spaun has been at or near the top since the dawn of Oakmont’s Open. His round was identical to Burns’, in that he had three birdies and two bogeys. Spaun putted lights-out on Saturday, which made up for struggles off the tee and around the green.

Playing Partner: Viktor Hovland. If Hovie plays well, he’ll inspire Spaun, If Hovland struggles, he’ll fall into a malaise of despair, and that will force Spaun to go it alone.

Why he might win: Spaun has been around for this long, so perhaps he can tough it out for one more day. It will be a tough day, if they get to play. The weather forecast is rain late Saturday, rain early Sunday, then jousts with thunderstorms all day long. Monday is better, with cloudy skies but no rain.

Why he won’t win: Discomfort that comes from lack of experience. Knowing when the adrenaline is elevated, and one less club is required. Knowing when the safe play or the daring ploy is in demand. Spaun will draw on the experience he had in a playoff for this year’s Players Championship; will it be enough?

4. Viktor Hovland

Hovland is ready to win a major championship. Hovland is talented enough to win a major event. Hovland will need to settle his emotions, remain calm, and play in the moment of each shot’s demands. He began day three with two bogeys in his first three holes. Birdies at nine and ten drew him even on the day, and a birdie-bogey finish brought an even-par 70 his way. If those two early bogeys happen on day four, will he be able to rebound?

Playing Partner: JJ Spaun. If Spaun goes sideways, the mercurial Hovland might not be able to ignore the distraction.

Why he might win: Hovland has four, top-ten finishes in major events, as a professional. He tied for 12th at the US Open at Pebble Beach in 2019, and has had two more, top-twenty finishes since then. It’s not his favorite of the majors, but with the course wet and the greens soft, it’s one that he might win.

Why he won’t win: Hovland is so talented with a golf club not named driver. He has played his approach shots quite well, and his work around the greens is sublime. Putting has been good enough, but it’s the heavy timber that draws question marks at the end of the sentence. Choke up and find the fairway, Vik!

5. Carlos Ortiz

Ortiz is one of two LIV golfers in contention at Oakmont. The other is Tyrrell Hatton, and he is a single shot behind el rey on the leader board. As the week has progressed, Ortiz’ game has coalesced. On Thursday, he was all over the dart board, posting six bogies and five birdies. On Friday, he played two opposing nines, one of +5 and the other of -3. On Saturday, Ortiz controlled his game with four birdies until reaching the final hole. There, he went from right rough to left bunker to green, but missed a seven-foot putt for par.

Playing Partner: Tyrrell Hatton. We’ll see if the LIV connection compels one of the two to contention.

Why he might win: Ortiz ranked first in combined statistics, by a full point over Hatton and Marc Leishman. He is simply doing all the things well. If he preserves that mastery for another day, he might become Mexico’s first U.S. Open champion.

Why he won’t win: Like all LIV golfers, Ortiz has subconsciously grown accustomed to 54-hole tournaments. The two exceptions are DeChambeau and Koepka, and both won major titles before departing for LIV. In addition, Ortiz has little experience in the major championship pressure cooker. Ortiz hardly plays majors, let alone contends. His best U.S. Open finish was 52nd at Pebble Beach, six years ago. His only other major cut made was in 2021 at the PGA Championship.