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Prediction: Phil will win at Pinehurst in 2014

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Some might be tempted to call it quits after six runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open.

Sam Snead finished runner-up in four, never once winning the championship. Jack Nicklaus matched Snead with four second-place results; however, he won the event as many times.

Like Snead, Nancy Lopez also came in second-best in her national championship on four occasions, never once winning. While it’s true that these exercises in hollowness pale in comparison to the 19-year streak for futility of soap opera actress Susan Lucci, they are certainly gut-wrenching rewards that do not match the effort an energy dedicated by these golfing superstars to the annual showcase events of the United States Golf Association.

As many bitterly watched on Sunday, the gods of golf found a way to deny Phil Mickelson an inaugural Open championship of his own. Sunday, June 16, Bloomsday to the literary world, Father’s Day to many and 43rd birthday to Mickelson, brought another excruciating runner-up finish in a tournament he was desperate to win, that seemed destined to be his. In his own incomplete words, his finish at Merion was “very heart breaking.”

“This could have been the big [something] a really big turnaround for me on how I look at the U.S. Open and the tournament that I’d like to win, after having so many good opportunities,” Mickelson said after the round.

When a golfer searches for words “could have been the big…” the result could not have been more torturous.

Does it surprise you, then, that I predict that Phil Mickelson will win the 2014 U.S. Open? I write it with extreme confidence, for a number of reasons. If it’s facts you want, I have them. If it’s spiritual connections, I have those as well. My intent is to convince you that Phil’s town is not on Long Island (where he had three runner-up finishes), in Westchester county (one) or even the eponymous eastern Pennsylvania city of Phil-adelphia (one.) Phil’s star will finally shine bright in a small town known as the home of American golf in south-central North Carolina.

In 1999, a soon-to-be-30 and soon-to-be-a-daddy Phil Mickelson, outdueled a young Tiger Woods, only to have Payne Stewart enact the role of Harry Houdini and drain a monster 15-foot par putt on the 72nd hole to avoid a playoff and win the Open outright. In a moment frozen in time (and made all the more poignant and symbolic by Stewart’s untimely death less than six months later), Stewart grabbed Mickelson’s face in his hands and nearly shouted “You’re going to be a father, you’re going to be a father.” That Stewart chose to focus on Phil’s impending role as parent, rather than consolation for a job nearly well done, set in motion a spiritual trajectory that saw Mickelson through the birth of two other children and the personal health battles of his wife, son and mother.

Given that connection to Pinehurst (and ignoring the interim Open there in 2005, when Mickelson finished T33), is there any greater place for Mickelson to close fate’s circle than Pinehurst in 2014? I think not.

Fine, you don’t believe in spiritual connections. Let me suggest, then, that the “new” Pinehurst No. 2 sets up better than any other U.S. Open venue for Phil’s particular golfing phraseology. Since its restoration a year ago by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, Pinehurst No. 2 has returned to its Donald Ross origin of fairway width and manageable, sand-and-pine-straw rough. It is often written of Mickelson that he’d rather be in trouble, with an opportunity to manufacture a shot, than in the middle of the fairway, faced with a straightforward approach. At Pinehurst, he’ll be able to manufacture recovery shots in most situations, which might allow him to use driver with greater confidence.

Once you’re on the greens at Pinehurst No. 2, their contours and movements are for the most part negotiable. It’s the missing of the greens that causes consternation, followed by discomposure and vexation, for many competitors (channeling John Daly’s six–chip, are we?) Well, it’s for those very bumps, flops, spinners and nudges that Phil Mickelson is known. He handles a missed green with aplomb, knowing that he has either hit the recovery shot before or that he relishes the prospect of adding a new weapon to his stockpile.

You won’t need to give credit where it’s due (to me) nor sing of my clairvoyance for ages to come. The site of Phil phinally, sorry, finally hoisting the unnamed U.S. Open champion’s trophy will be reward enough for me and, I suspect, all of golf. And for those of you with scant knowledge of Susan Lucci, after 19 successive yet unsuccessful nominations for Best Actress in a soap opera, she finally won on her 20th attempt…in 1999.

Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Tom Allinder

    Jul 10, 2013 at 7:47 am

    Ronald, I agree with you. I think Pinehurst #2 is the best venue for Phil to get his U.S. Open. I was thinking in the months before the U.S. Open at Merion that Phil would have a hard time there; I was wrong. At Pinehurst #2 (I have played the course a few times), the premium is absolutely on play AROUND the greens.

  2. Ronald Montesano

    Jun 20, 2013 at 6:24 pm

    No doubt, Ryan. More guys in the running next year. I think that Phil’s trump card is his magic around the greens.

    Bart, he’ll not be dumping Bones. You are correct about #2 and #3, but there has to be a point at which he has a good putting week at an Open and makes a few less whacky choices.

  3. Bart carter

    Jun 20, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    1, he needs to sack his caddy,2, he has to be the streakiest putter ever, this won’t cut it,3, he continues to make stupid choices, being the best at miracle shots to try and escape the poor drive/approach will not get him home all the time. I also predict he’ll never win a U.S open and certainly not “The Open”.

  4. Ryan Caddell

    Jun 20, 2013 at 8:22 am

    There’s a lot more than pine straw and sand where the rough used to be…. wire grass, sticks, pine cones, weeds. Also, the lack of rough should bring more guys to the table. It will be firm and FAST through the fairways. Good shots will roll in to the natural areas, and unless you get lucky there will be obstacles to deal with. I am excited to see how the pros (men and women) handle the new (old) setup. Growing up in Pinehurst I have seen a lot of great golf tournaments… next year could be the best yet.

  5. Ronald Montesano

    Jun 19, 2013 at 6:39 pm

    Love the feedback. Keep it coming, gang. I’m hopeful that the universal kharma machine decides it’s Phil’s time.

  6. Socorr4

    Jun 19, 2013 at 3:26 pm

    I’ll take that bet!!

    With one more year on his clock and fractured psyche after failing to deliver on his dream this year, I’ll go out on a limb: Mickelson will NEVER win the US Open and probably won’t’even contend in many other majors.

  7. BigBoy

    Jun 19, 2013 at 6:15 am

    Phil da Phillper wont win a US Open……one of them “set up for birdie” courses, yes…..but not a classically designed course.

  8. Ronald Montesano

    Jun 19, 2013 at 6:05 am

    Merion’s greens ate up a lot of golfers last weekend; Phil was hardly alone. I’ll check Rose’s putting stats, but I would doubt he missed as many as Phil or Tiger when they counted. The winner in hindsight is usually the player that converted critical putts form a variety of makeable distances.

  9. Joe Golfer

    Jun 19, 2013 at 2:16 am

    That’s a good assessment of Phil’s game.
    I think he’s really going to be gunning for the win next year.
    Not that he wasn’t super serious about it this year.
    He probably will play more practice rounds at the course next year, weather permitting.
    I liked that SuperStroke grip he used on his putter. Those greens at up a lot of golfers at Merion. Phil may have missed some putts, but they certainly weren’t gimmes, and he burned the edges of the cup numerous times.
    Even at his current age, he’s still one of the top guns on tour, so I think his chances will be as good as anyone’s next year.
    And this article makes it sound like the course suits his game.
    After all his second place finishes at the US Open, I think I’ll be rooting for him next year.
    I was sort of hoping he’d tie Justin Rose on the 18th at Merion, though it would have been really tough to do.
    I really wasn’t rooting for either guy though, as both seemed worthy of the championship. That 18 hole playoff would have been must-see tv.

  10. kyle

    Jun 18, 2013 at 11:43 pm

    Ya if he is gonna win he will have to have a better putter. His putting this last week was not good for considering how many birdie putts he had. He really did not convert well. I saw him make a par save from maybe 8ft. Other than that he was ice cold from 15 ft and in.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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