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Opinion & Analysis

Five long shots who can win the British Open

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The Open Championship is played on a style of course with a style of golf that the players and fans don’t often get to see.

It gives golf fans in North America a chance to watch things that we just aren’t that familiar with: sweaters in July, winds that blows flagsticks sideways, 3 irons from 150 yards and all the guys named Bjorn you can shake a stick at.

But the last few years especially, The Open Championship has provided some of most intriguing story lines in golf history. First, it was Greg Norman turning back the clocks and playing in the final group at Royal Birkdale in 2008. He eventually finished in a tie for third, six shots behind Padraig Harrington, who walked away with his second consecutive Claret Jug.

In 2009, Tom Watson outdid Norman performance — he almost won a major at the age of 59 at Turnberry (darn you, Stewart Cink).

Then, as if to almost make up for those near-amazing stories, The Open gave us consecutive feel-good winners: first the emotional triumph of Darren Clarke in 2011, which came out of nowhere. The next year, golf fans were treated to the re-emergence of Ernie Els, who won his first major championship in 10 years at Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club.

It’s something the tournament has always found a way to do, so I probably shouldn’t be surprised. How about Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton winning consecutive Opens a decade ago? How about Paul Lawrie coming from 10 shots back in the final round after the leader had a Van De Velde-ian struggle on the final hole (wait, that WAS Van De Velde!).

I guess when you put golfers on a stage they are unfamiliar with, the unexpected can happen, and therefore we should expect the unexpected. And who better to pick a few potential random winners than someone who (shameless self promotion coming in 3-2-1) picked Justin Rose as the golfer without a major championship who was most likely to break through at Merion?

With that said, here are the long shots that I believe can win The Open this year at Muirfield:

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

gonzalo

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano isn’t a household name in the U.S., but golf fans are beginning to take notice. If you don’t recognize his name, it’s probably because it appears on leaderboards in a shortened version —  “Fdez Castano.”

Fernandez-Castano has been on a lot of leaderboards lately, especially in big tournaments. His best results of 2013 so far? The U.S. Open, The Volvo Match Play Championship, the Accenture Match Play Championship, the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and the Masters. He finished in top-20 at all of them.

Fernandez-Castano has a a great resume in Europe, where he has six wins. At 32, he is in the traditional “golfing prime.” And it just seems right that someone other than Sergio Garcia will be the first Spaniard since Seve to win The Open.

Click here to see the full list of Open Championship odds.

Rickie Fowler

Rickie-Fowler-makes-a-charge-at-British-Open-TF7PQM6-x-large

Rickie is currently ranked 30th in the Official World Golf Rankings, so he may not reall qualify as “long shot.” But a golfer ranked 30th in the world is never really a “favorite,” especially Fowler, who has been dogged by questions about his ability to close out tournaments several times in his young career.

Fowler admittedly likes poor weather, and played college golf in windy Oklahoma (he went to Oklahoma State). In 2011, he played one of the best Open rounds in recent memory when he shot a 2-under 68 on Saturday at Royal St. George’s in some of the worst weather imaginable. He also went 3-1 at the 2007 Walker Cup played at Royal County Down, another place known to have some pretty stern winds.

He’s having a solid season so far with four top 10’s and third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he fell short of Tiger Woods. He’s also coming off a top 10 at his most recent major, the U.S. Open. If you are willing to call Fowler a long shot, then he’s at the top of the list. He has the skills and toughness to win The Open, and I can’t slip the feeling that he’s due for something big.

Justin Leonard

Justin Leonard

If the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that an older golfer who has won The Open will find a way to contend again. And when that golfer is a guy who isn’t a long driver of the ball, hasn’t won in five years and hasn’t made the cut in The Open since 2010, that’s all the more reason to pick him in my book.

Justin Leonard in his heyday was a great wind player, and he contended in majors regularly with 11 top 10’s and six top 5’s. If fate is going to sprinkle magic pixie dust on someone to allow them to turn back the clock and compete, it should be Leonard because he has been there before and is playing well in 2013 — he’s missed only three cuts in 19 events.

Also, unlike other events, Leonard’s lack of distance might not really hurt if the course conditions are firm and fast as predicted. This is the long shot of long shots, but every year someone like Leonard seems to be hanging around the lead on Sunday.

David Lynn

David Lynn

Trivia question for you: Who finished second when Rory Mcilroy drubbed of the field at the 2012 PGA Championship? The answer, as you should have surmised by now, is David Lynn. Do you know what that means? If Rory McIlroy had switched to Nike clubs last July, Lynn would already be a major champion.

Lynn was the only player other than McIlroy to shoot consecutive rounds in the 60’s at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course on the weekend. He followed that up by joining the PGA Tour in 2013, and playing solid golf both stateside and back home on the European Tour.

His results have been mixed with some poor play of late, but he almost won the Wells Fargo Championship in May (he lost in a playoff to Derek Ernst). Lynn has two top 10’s and more than $1 million in earnings so far in 2013. While he has only one career win, the European Tour’s KLM Open in 2004, he’s proved in the last year that he has the game to compete with the world’s best wherever he tees it up.

Alexander Noren

alexander-noren_1476176c

For those of you not familiar with Alexander Noren, he’s a 30-year-old member of the European Tour, but he played college golf in the U.S. at the same windy school as Fowler.

Noren had success at this event last year, when he had his best finish in a major (he tied for ninth). That’s not exactly groundbreaking stuff, of course, but Noren is coming into The Open on a hot streak. He has finished in the top 5 in his last two European Tour events, is one of the best putters on the European Tour, and is also a fairly good all-around player, hitting a lot of greens despite some problems with the driver this season.

Noren is currently fourth on the European Tour in stroke average, so this guy can play. He also has shown he can get it done, winning two events in the same season back in 2011. He strikes me as a guy who is a real force when he is hitting fairways. Will the weekend at Muirfield be magic for him?

Click here to see the full list of Open Championship odds.

Jeff Singer was born and still resides in Montreal, Canada. Though it is a passion for him today, he wasn't a golfer until fairly recently in life. In his younger years Jeff played collegiate basketball and football and grew up hoping to play the latter professionally. Upon joining the workforce, Jeff picked up golf and currently plays at a private course in the Montreal area while working in marketing. He has been a member of GolfWRX since 2008

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. AV

    Jul 16, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    I’m a huge Alex Noren fan, but his last two tourneys have been MC x2. He looked very ragged at the Castle Stuart, so it’d be a surprise if he contended here.

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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