Opinion & Analysis
10 PGA Tour players who will rise (or fall) in 2014
With the 2014 PGA Tour season starting, I wanted to give the readers a look at a few players on Tour that I feel will be on the rise and falling for the season. The data below is the player’s 2013 metrics.
Players on the Rise
NICOLAS COLSAERTS
Colsaerts was the hot prospect headed for the Tour in 2013 coming off splendid play at the 2012 Ryder Cup. He generates a ton of club head speed and is one of the longer hitters on Tour. He was also eighth in approach shots from the rough and fourth in approach shots from the fairway. Thus, he’s an excellent iron player if he keeps the ball in play. He actually drove the ball quite well for most of the season, but he regressed toward the end of the year.
The reason why I like Colsaerts is that he hits it so long and hits it so well with his irons that the only part of the game that held him back was on and around the greens. And where he excelled with his irons was in the ever-important Danger Zone. He also was first in shots from 225-to-250 yards.
Colsaerts was saddled with the strongest strength of schedule on Tour last year, while only ranking 100th in Purse Size per Event. I believe that he can get used to the greens along with working on his putting in the offseason that he will have much more success in 2014. As I have mentioned in Pro Golf Synopsis, the biggest statistical advantage that distance provides is it allows the golfer to putt overcome poor putting. This is due to the par-5’s on Tour playing more like par-4’s for long hitters such as Colsaerts. Therefore, he can still be a mediocre putter on Tour and have a big year. He just needs to stop putting like one of the worst putters on Tour.
CHARLES HOWELL III
Howell has been one of the most overrated ballstrikers in recent years and subsequently one of the most underrated in terms of short game and putting. What has happened is that he has steepened his angle of attack with the driver over time. I have written about this in Pro Golf Synopsis, where the most common trait of a golfer who “loses their driving” on Tour is the one who starts to struggle with his accuracy off the tee and to counter that he tries to fly the ball lower by hitting more and more downward on the ball. This may provide some initial relief for the golfer, but eventually he not only starts losing distance off the tee, but he becomes more inaccurate and imprecise off the tee as well.
Here is a look at Howell’s radar metrics during the past three years:
Frustrated, Howell started to work with Grant Waite for much of the second half of 2013 in order to improve shallow out his attack angle. Here is a look of his radar metrics in the fall 2013-2014 season:
This created a noticeable improvement in his ballstriking in the 2013-2014 fall season. Here is a look at his rankings in the key ballstriking metrics in those tournaments he played in:
Granted, his rankings in these events is out of roughly 120 players versus his cumulative rankings in 2013 being out of 190 players. But, he is currently in the top-10th percentile in driving and entirely better from each of the zones. With his club head speed, putting and short game he can take this much improved ballstriking and set target for having a spectacular 2014.
MATT JONES
Jones’ metrics may not impress many golfers. Last year I wrote about how PGA Tour players only need to be average or better in four areas of the game.
- Driving Effectiveness
- Danger Zone (175 to 225 yards) Play
- Putts Gained
- Short Game Shots from 10 to 20 yards
There is a very strong correlation between Tour players that finish in the top-half in these categories and their success on Tour. Not only do golfers that achieve “The Power of Being Average” usually keep their cards, but they tend to have wildly successful seasons. Jones finished a very respectable 49th on the money list. But even more impressive was his ranking of 29th in Adjusted Scoring Average. His Purse Size per Event is likely to improve and if he has the talent to achieve each of the “Big Four” areas of the game, he has a good chance to carrying it over to 2014 and having a terrific season.
JOHN SENDEN
While Senden’s metrics were not impressive, 2013 was a down year for him. Senden is well known for his ballstriking and is usually one of the premier ballstrikers on Tour from off the tee and on shots longer than 175 yards.
Since Senden did not lose any club head speed, I believe that he will regain his ballstriking in 2014. Furthermore, he was hampered by his inability to make putts from longer than 15 feet. He ranked 153rd in make percentage from long distance and historically that metric means he should progress toward the mean.
JOSH TEATER
Teater just missed finishing in the top half of “The Big Four” (Driving Effectiveness, Danger Zone, Short Game Shots and Putts Gained) as he ranked 96th in Putts Gained.
If there are worries about his game, he tends to miss a high percentage of the time to the right (60.5 percent) and that his ranking in Adjusted Scoring Average (82nd) should have been much better given his key performance metrics. This indicates that Teater may have some issues with his strategy.
In the end, it is difficult to take away from a player that almost executed “The Big Four” and did it against top-tier competition. Furthermore, parts of his issues with the putter were from long distance as he ranked 138th in make percentage from beyond 15 feet. This should progress toward the mean in 2014.
PLAYERS ON THE DECLINE
JOHN MERRICK
Typically, Merrick has been a very good driver of the ball and has had some issues with his iron play. In the past two seasons, he has made strides to improve his iron play, but his driving has regressed. Last year he started off the season as one of the premier Danger Zone players on Tour, while driving the ball very effectively and putting well to win his first-ever PGA Tour event, the Northern Trust Open at Riviera Country Club.
Since then, Merrick has only made an average of $35,566 per event played, which would have ranked 105th on Tour. Merrick benefited from playing a fairly soft schedule that had a fairly high purse size per event. Those two rankings should be more similar in 2014, which means that his strength of schedule should become tougher while his average Purse Size per Event should drop slightly and that would make it more difficult for him to have success.
DEREK ERNST
Ernst benefited from his surprise victory at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow after making it through the Monday qualifier. He was a good driver of the ball in 2013, but did not do much well beside that. He performed poorly in each of the zones and was the second worst on Tour on short game shots from 10-to-20 yards. He was also a mediocre putter.
That does not make for good prospects in 2014, and he finished out the 2013 missing nine of his past 13 cuts with a best finish of T-44th. One of the big things Ernst has going for him is his world-class club head speed. If he can use that speed to his advantage and start bombing shots off the tee, all he needs is one good week of golf and he can get into contention for another victory. But since he does not hit it as far as his club head speed indicates, I have my doubts that will happen.
HUNTER MAHAN
Mahan’s game has always been his impeccable driving of the ball. He generates about average club head speed and is above average in distance off the tee. But, he has an uncanny ability to hit a ton of fairways (66.6 percent) given his distance off the tee. The problem for Mahan has been his Danger Zone play and his Short Game from 10-to-20 yards. Mahan is an underrated putter, but was also saved by ranking 39th in Putts Made Percentage from 15 to 25 feet. That should regress toward the mean in 2014 and that means that his performance should dip as well if he everything remains the same. I still see him as ranking in the top 100 on the Money List, if not the top 50. But, I feel he will have a down year when I look at the data.
CHRIS STROUD
Stroud had that incredible chip-in on the 72nd hole of the Travelers to force a playoff, and had a fine year overall as he finished 55th on the PGA Tour money list.
We can see some of the reasons why I do not favor his prospects in 2014. He drove it poorly (164th) and he is a short hitter off the tee. He also performed poorly from the Danger Zone. Where he made it up was from the Safe Zone and with his putting and short-game play. So he did a good job of getting the ball up near the green in regulation and could often putt and chip his way to par and birdie.
Most of his driving issues were consistency related. He hit a decent amount of fairways (62.4 percent), but ranked 137th in Fairway Bunker Percentage and 147th in Missed Fairway — Other Percentage (shots that find the water, trees, O.B, result in rescue shots, etc). Short and crooked is a hard way to make it on Tour.
Stroud also ranked 50th in make percentage on putts from longer than 15 feet. That should regress toward the mean and will cost him strokes in 2014.
JONAS BLIXT
If you look at Blixt’s 2013 season, we see a golfer that only played well in four tournaments. He had a T-26th finish at the British Open, a T-11th finish at Colonial, a fourth-place finish at Oak Hill and a victory at The Greenbrier. Outside of those tournaments, he usually missed the cut or finished poorly.
Blixt did this through good, but streaky putting and a good short game. The chart below shows Blixt’s streaky putting throughout the year:
Anything below -0.5 is quite poor and above +0.5 is quite good. Blixt ran through some extreme highs and lows throughout the season, which created a trend line that was very streaky. He was on fire with the putter after Sawgrass and it is very unlikely he will be able to keep up that pace in 2014.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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AIPM
Mar 31, 2014 at 6:15 pm
Good call on John Senden… Stats only go so far, but so far these have been pretty well judged.
topnotch17
Jan 10, 2014 at 6:21 pm
Nerd alert!
AHG Anderson
Jan 10, 2014 at 8:42 am
I like the use of stats in this way and since Tour pros and caddies and others subscribe to them then that tells us all we need to know; they work and they help the pro focus on where he needs to improve or consolidate. Of course there’s speculation in all sports or all walks of life but having access to such data can only be a good thing; it doesn’t promise how the future season might pan out but then unless you have a crystal ball then nothing else can either. Those guys who don’t rate what they are being told here are those I’d imagine who flunked out at school in math; they can’t interpret the data so they diss it as being useless – open your minds to the 21st century you cavemen!
Brian
Jan 8, 2014 at 4:22 pm
Any thoughts on Graham Delaet for 2014? He seemed to do well in 2013, especially after he went to the short putter.
Richie Hunt
Jan 9, 2014 at 10:22 am
He should do well because he typically performs well in the key metrics to being consistently successful…driving and Danger Zone play. He’s one of the very best ballstrikers on Tour.
gunmetal
Jan 7, 2014 at 7:39 pm
I think these data would be pretty valuable to the players. I would want know where I need get better. I agree with everyone on the list except for Colsearts and Mahan. I watched Nicolas at done event in China a few weeks ago and wasn’t at all impressed. One week at the Ryder cup (thanks for that timing, btw) isn’t enough to convince me. I do live to watch him swing, though. Mahan knows how to win. I think this was his first year not winning in a long time. He’ll be fine.
Mike
Jan 6, 2014 at 5:09 pm
Well numbers don’t lie. It’s like making your pick in horse racing. Look at the numbers and you are right with some luck.
JnRadioActive
Jan 6, 2014 at 4:27 pm
If i had a dollar for everytime I heard it was going to be the year of Chucky 3 Sticks… well I’d have 6 or 7 dollars anyway…
Jeff
Oct 10, 2014 at 2:11 pm
Great comment. Chuckie 3 sticks saves his best for practice rounds at Isleworth.
Homer Simpson
Jan 6, 2014 at 4:12 pm
Here we go again…useless speculation exactly.
Evan
Jan 6, 2014 at 3:32 pm
Useless speculation. The players create the data, not the data creates the player. Player’s 2014 season success will depend upon:
1. Talent
2. Hard Work
3. A little luck
That’s it, that’s all… good luck digging into the stats after the tournament has left town.
JM
Jan 6, 2014 at 8:11 pm
I think all the writer is saying is that the data is a reflection of the players game as far as strengths/weaknesses
The stats show how a particular player “should” fare over the course of a year long season given past performance metrics and trends.
Of course, some players will just get hot some weeks and it may be enough to win or skew overall stats.
And of couse some players will improve parts of their game and others will regress in certain areas. It is the players who can improve in certain key areas that may be weak, without having their areas of strength regress that will have successful seasons typically
Evan
Jan 7, 2014 at 6:34 pm
Yes, I know what the writer is saying… what I am saying is that even with stats in hand, it is still pure speculation. Does he probably have a slightly better chance at predicting success on tour considering he follows these guys and studies the numbers? Sure, but it’s still pure speculation. RH might be a wealthy man if he had a formula to pick success in golf… he’d live in Vegas, not Orlando.