It can sometimes be hard to sit on a golfer week after week, burning through starts with the hope they finally come through.

Matt Kuchar has been that guy for me. Zach Johnson is itching close. What do you do when you have to weigh the costs of long-term strategy with short-term dividends? It’s one of the toughest elements in fantasy golf.

From a personal standpoint, I’m happy Kuchar finally got the win he should have had weeks ago. In some ways, it’s funny it came down to two notorious non-finishers to win the RBC Heritage. Luke Donald did, in fact, do his best at giving away strokes and were it not for Kuchar’s excellent bunker chip-in to win, we would have been watching a playoff.

From a gaming standpoint, Donald was a no-brainer with plenty of starts left, but Snedeker got a nod over Kuchar. And what Kuchar displayed was hot recent play can sometimes trump course history (I said last week: “Anytime a golfer is playing that consistent and they have the talent Kuchar has, a win could be coming at any moment.”).

Of course, ideally, you’d find a combination of both. With the next PGA Tour stop being the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, that will be a tall order because the field has plenty of golfers with sturdy games in recent weeks and a mixed bag of play through the years at TPC Louisiana.

It’s an easy course, one which doesn’t require the precision of last week’s tee shots, but does call for aggressiveness in attacking pins. Billy Horschel did this extremely effectively last year en route to his first Tour victory, which he’d been building to for weeks.

Odds are it could be anyone who walks out of The Big East this week as victor, so let’s take the best look we can at what’s in store down on the bayou in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

This could be an infuriating week for gamers. There are very few clear-cut picks and even they have history of missed cuts at this event. One thing I noticed among past winners is they all seemed to hang around the top 25 on previous year’s leaderboards. Jason Dufner is probably the best example of contend, contend, contend, then win, as he did in 2012. But it doesn’t mean you can’t win coming off a missed cut, because Horschel ventured that route.

One thing I am going for this week is guys who have a tendency to be a bit cavalier when eyeballing a flagstick from several hundred yards out. You can shoot numbers here and it can pay off, or it just won’t, which will be your risk if the golfer can’t get his distance control.

Charley Hoffman

Always capable of shooting a low number, Hoffman has been mixing in high rounds with his low ones the past five weeks, but he still sits as an attractive option with just one missed cut in 13 starts. He is 6 for 8 in New Orleans with a missed cut last year. In most instances, he’s shot low rounds and also scored poorly. In 2009, he played extremely well to score a T19 but was hurt by a third-round 77 to mar his week. I still like him enough to put him on my roster, I’m just not sure which round will be best to play him.

Kevin Stadler

Stadler is playing the best golf of his career, evidenced by his first Tour victory, which came several weeks back at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. He has two other top-10s, the last which came in an impressive debut showing at the Masters. Stadler followed that up with a T38 at the RBC Heritage and has just one missed cut on the year. He tied for eighth last year at the Zurich Classic and reached 13-under par for the tournament. Stadler is 4 for 7 in made cuts his career at tht tournament with his best result being last year.

Graham DeLaet

DeLaet played so well last year I think people are missing out on the incredible success he’s had this year, too, which has arguably been better. First, there was a run of five straight weeks where he scored top-10s, including back-to-back T2 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Yeah, he missed the cut at the Masters, but who didn’t? His opening-round 80 was followed up with a 72. In the weeks before, he had a T19 at the Shell Houston Open and another top 10 at the Valspar Championship. People have been clamoring about when he’ll pick up his first Tour victory and this is as good a chance as any. DeLaet reached 7-under par (T47) last year, and the year before posted a T4 that saw him hit 16-under. He currently sits third in GIR.

Jeff Overton

This is my big-time sleeper pick because Overton’s season success doesn’t necessarily make you want to jump out and pick him, even though he has two top-10s. But I’m convinced he’s going to have a really good tournament based on the success Overton has had at TPC Louisiana. A T42 last year and a T18 in 2012 are notable since the solo second he posted in 2010, when he shot 67-69-70-66 to reach 16-under. Overton is 6 for 8 at the Zurich Classic and he also has a T13 with the missed cut coming in his first two years. He fits the trend of first time winners in New Orleans.

Russell Knox

Strong play since a playoff loss in The Honda Classic, Knox put up a T9 at the RBC Heritage and can score good numbers if the course doesn’t set up as difficult, which TPC Louisiana doesn’t. He finished T30 in his only appearance in 2012, which was aided by a second-round 64 and an opening 64. Know currently sits 27th in hitting greens in regulation, which is really the only significant statistic needed for this week.

REWARD

As mentioned, this is a week where the tournament is wide open and even the field’s best golfers have blemishes. Depending on your position in your league, it’s a good week to mix up the golfers you’ll roster this week. That said, these appear to be the five best to hit TPC Louisiana, whether they pan out or not.

Justin Rose

Perhaps the only sure thing this week, Rose has had a win in each of the past four years and is looking to continue his positive trend. TPC Louisiana sets up well for his game. He tied for 15th last year, following a T10 in 2012. Rose is 6 for 8 at this event with a T5 in ’04, and he also has two top-10s this year. Rose is not the lowest scorer, but he is consistent with his sub-par rounds.

Rickie Fowler 

Since a nice run through the Accenture Match Play Championship, Fowler has been slowly reaching a boil. Now with a solo sixth at the Shell Houston Open and a T5 at The Masters, Fowler looks confident at a course where he finished T10 in ’12. Overall, he’s 3 for 3 at TPC Louisiana. Statistically, he doesn’t do anything exceptional, but he doesn’t shoot himself in the foot either.

Patrick Reed

Since his second win of the year at the WGC-Cadillac Championship, Reed has turned in T52, MC and T48 finishes. Not necessarily banking on course history here with an MC last year and a T24 in ’12. This is about Reed’s mindset of being an elite player on Tour and a willingness to attack at all moments. I love that here and if you do have a Tiger-like killer instinct, it should be on full display in this field. It’s put up or shut up time.

Keegan Bradley

Namewise, the former PGA Championship winner has that “it” factor you’d like this week. With a couple top-10s, including a solo second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this year, Bradley has moments of brilliance, but also head-scratching results too. He missed the cut in Augusta and has missed the cut his last two years here. Risk or Ruin? Not quite. Bradley can score here, he’s just been hurt by bad rounds equally. His debut year he finished T24 and shot 68 on the final day. We’re at a point where he’s due for a win, and Bradley is highly competitive and his mistakes hopefully won’t be too severe.

Ryan Palmer

Two second-place finishes this year and a T7 in his last start in Houston, matched with his T4 in ’12 in New Orleans, in which he shot a course record 64, makes Palmer a heavy favorite this week. He tied for 32nd last year and overall is 6 for 7 with a T12 in ’04. Palmer ranks 15th on Tour in GIR and one of the best statistically across other categories as well. He should have a strong week.

RUIN

When trying to gauge who will play poorly for a tournament, it is always in relation to what you think the golfer could do in relation to how they have played lately. Many times someone will appear to be a smart play, but then they run into a tournament that doesn’t suit their eye or perhaps they feel like they can get too aggressive on, which leads to cockiness and subsequent bad rounds. None of the five below will jump out in a bad way, but your expectation of how they will perform could be skewed.

Rory Sabbatini

By all intents and purposes, Sabbatini looks like a strong play this week. He performed well with a top-10 at the RBC Heritage and has tied for second at the Zurich Classic (’09), but he’s either in the top 10 or he’s down at the moment. The lack of an in-between is a scary proposition in fantasy golf, where a missed cut could really hurt your week. Sabbatini missed the cut in his last two starts and followed up his highest finish with a tie for 53rd.

Daniel Summerhays

One nice tie for second at the Valero Texas Open isn’t enough to convince me Summerhays can put together a combination of solid rounds. He missed the cut the following week in Houston and hasn’t played since. He’s also missed the cut in two of three tries in New Orleans, and his best finish is a T30. Summerhays is doing a lot of good things statistically, but he’s struggling to finish out rounds after quality opening nine holes.

Nick Watney

A returning champion, albeit from seven years ago, he has two other top-20s since, but this year has just making it through cutlines and doing little else. He’s missed the cut twice at TPC Louisiana since he won as well, so hardly a sure thing for a former winner. Watney’s not too bad at hitting GIR, but his putting stroke has been off, which would suggest he’s just not going to add up the strokes needed to make a charge to the top.

Ben Crane

Goofy and laid back attitude isn’t a good fit when you’ve got to find a way to be aggressive. Crane has two MC’s in the last three weeks and hasn’t hit the 60s in his last 14 rounds. Crane has missed the cut 6 of 7 times he’s played in New Orleans, and he’s among the worst on Tour in hitting GIR. 

Will MacKenzie 

MacKenzie is definitely having one of his strongest years in a long time, but he’s missed his last four cuts at this event. I love the solo-second at the Valero Texas Open, which was his third top-6 in recent weeks, but MacKenzie missed the cut at Harbour Town, which is surprising since he has done well at hitting GIR. Maybe that means he’s off a touch now and could misfire this week, too.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to discuss the Zurich Classic of New Orleans or sort through fantasy dilemmas you may have. Good luck!

This week’s picks 

Yahoo!

Group A: R. Fowler (S), P. Reed

Group B: J. Rose (S), K. Bradley (S), J. Kokrak, G. DeLaet

Group C: R. Palmer (S), C. Hoffman

(Last week: 170 points; Spring segment: 489; Spring rank: 9,794; Season points: 2,482; Full Season rank: 1,618 – 98th percentile)

PGATour.com

J. Rose,  P. Reed, R. Fowler, K. Bradley

(Last week: 151 points; Season: 4,192; Rank: 4,559)

Golf Channel

Group 1: J. Rose

Group 2: K. Stadler

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: H. Swafford

(Last week: $86,710; Season: $7,994,689; Mulligan: $86,710; Rank: 8,368 of 36,488)