I remember this time as a kid when my younger brother and I were playing in our community’s garden. Without malice, I threw a solid dirt clod that struck his eye and caused stitches, and he subsequently stuck a stick through my bike spokes, causing me to flip over the front and bust my chin on the ground.

That hurt, but then just a day after getting the stitches removed, I gracefully ran into the back of a truck’s flatbed. Stitches again and a scar as a reminder.

That’s kind of how I felt after this past weekend’s Colonial Invitational: It lined up to be a good moment, until everything turned into a bloody mess.

Oh, Chalk. You front-runners with your strong course history and solid opening-round play… only to burn it all to the damn ground over the next three frustrating days. And still after all that we wound up with Adam Scott vs. Jason Dufner in a playoff. I even had Scott, but the damage was done: Starts burned, leads shrunk, points missed. Anyone else pull a dosey-do around all the good rounds, such as sitting on Dustin Johnson’s third-round 74 and swapping out for Zach Johnson’s final-round 76, while D.J. shot 4-under? Yuck.

OK, I’m trying to stop, since clearly this column is turning into a Kevin Na 16-shot meltdown.

[Breathe]

This week’s Memorial Tournament is a fresh start, gamers. We hear that in golf a lot. It’s about playing with confidence. It’s trusting the work you’ve put in. It doesn’t take much to get on a hot streak and everyone is capable.

Muirfield Village doesn’t require accuracy off the tee, but it is a difficult course in need of approach-shot accuracy, skill with the putter and a good bit of scrambling ability. Basically, hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

As one commenter pointed out recently, strategy of managing starts is important, especially in Yahoo leagues where you’re using twice as many golfers each week compared to that of other games. Right now, there are 16 tournaments left and just four remaining in the Spring segment. There’s still three majors to go and four rounds of small-to-decreasingly-smaller FedEx Cup playoffs. I’m not sure anyone has seven starts left from anyone in the OWGR top-10, so you should have an eye on who will play where down the road.

For example, Matt Kuchar’s missed cut at Colonial pained me. Not just because it was his first of the year and he missed out on getting points at a place where he’d finished second the year before, but because he’d been such a sure thing all year. What an awful time to waste a start, especially since he’s the defending champion at The Memorial. I have four starts left from him the rest of the year. If I used him this week, I’d want to use him in the FedEx Cup finale, the Tour Championship in Atlanta. That means use for two other starts. And to give you an idea, last year he didn’t finish any worse than T28 in the remaining nine times he teed it up after the Memorial, including T2 (RBC Canadian Open) and T4 (Deutsche Bank Championship) finishes.

I hope that’s a good little bit of insight into what you’ll need to weigh each time you make your picks. As such, here’s a look at who I’ve got my eye on this week at Muirfield. It’s a clean slate edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

I’ve only got two starts left from Zach Johnson, too. And given he was the unequivocal top dog last week by every fantasy writer out there, we all got shell-shocked. Looking down the list of golfers in Yahoo B this week, blown starts are beginning to add up. So if it looks like I’ve begun trading in some safe picks for a few more risky ones, you know why. I’ve still got a small segment lead right now in my group, but I need to think about the endgame, which is an overall win. And that means being willing to lose that lead in light of positioning myself for the stretch run. Are you willing to do the same? Here are some true risks if you want to head that direction.

Bo Van Pelt

Sitting at 118th in the OWGR, Van Pelt isn’t going to lead the chatter to win this tournament. In fact, he has just one career win on the PGA Tour, the 2009 U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee. BVP has missed 8 of 16 cuts this year, but his game appears to be turning around. He tied for 26th at The Players Championship and followed that up with a T14 at Colonial. Muirfield Village must suit his eye because he’s finished T21 (’13), T13 (’12), T13 (’11) and T3 (’10) his last four outing since an ’09 missed cut, which was only his second one in nine starts. Mix in a T3 in ’05 and a GIR rank of 38th, and you have a bonafide sleeper pick.

Steve Stricker

With the extremely limited schedule he’s played this year, Stricker is definitely under the radar but a safe choice in a risky body. Because everyone should have plenty of available starts, I’d strongly urge the 2011 Memorial champ to be on your roster. Normally, two rounds of 68 and two rounds near even-par 72 will put you squarely in the mix. Stricker shot 68-67-69-68 that tournament, good for a one-stroke victory. He hasn’t played but The Players since an underwhelming Masters, and he last played the Memorial in 2012, finishing T50. But this is right about the time of year when he starts putting up some good numbers, and I’m undeterred given his career form.

Brian Davis

If Davis shoots what he did last week at Colonial (68-67-70-70), he could win The Memorial. That score netted him a T14 for the Crowne Plaza Invitational, which followed a T11 at The Players two weeks before. He’s been smattering the top 25 at Muirfield the last few years, finishing T8 (’13), T25 (’12) and T18 (’11). Count those results as experience, since his previous editions didn’t fare as well. Davis hasn’t exactly gotten it done on approach, but he does set himself up well off the tee and is 54th in scrambling.

Pat Perez

Coming off a missed cut, Perez returns to the site of where he finished T8 last year, after a withdrawal. He’s been right around the top 25 in four other tries, which would seemingly match up well to his stats this year of 80th in GIR, 11th in strokes gained putting and 39th in scrambling. Not a lot to show for in terms of huge results, but has been steadily raking in money this year.

K.J. Choi

Another with casual success right around the top-20 mark for the last three years, Choi has also posted a solo 13th (’09) since his Memorial win in 2007. He’s getting it done with the flat stick this year, ranking 20th in Strokes Gained-Putter, but the other areas of his game need some work. A bit of a reach, but he does have a T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open this year, showing he can still put together four good rounds at any time.

REWARD

Aside from Ryan Palmer and a brief mention of Adam Scott in the intro, last week was a bit of fool’s gold for a reward. In the long run, I hope the Colonial just looks like a frustrating aberration that I believe it was. Muirfield Village, a Jack Nicklaus-design, provides a chance for the world’s best golfers to shine and it’s also a good bit of prep for what the U.S. Open will entail. Familiar world-beating names are listed below, but not many or any will make my teams this week.

Luke Donald

One of your strongest statistical bets this week is Luke Donald. Ranking 46th in driving accuracy, 76th in GIR, eighth in Strokes Gained-Putting and 10th in scrambling, the Englishman has the measurables. He’s coming off a third-place result at the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship, where he won twice before, and he enters Muirfield have finished T21, 12th, T7 and T14, T6 in his last five trips.

Justin Rose 

The only golfer is my lineup (he has seven starts available), Rose proved himself at venues such as this when he claimed the U.S. Open last year. His last four starts on American soil have been a T14 (The Masters), T8 (Zurich Classic), solo fifth (Wells Fargo) and a T4 (The Players). He ended T8 at last year’s Memorial and was solo eighth the year before. And, of course, he won in 2010, which followed the T2 he had in ’08. Also has a T14 and solo fourth in his expansive and impressive history at Muirfield. I just hope the two missed cuts form doesn’t pop up unexpectedly this week or I might break a few clubs on a tree in my yard.

Matt Kuchar

I’ve got to throw Kuchar back in the mix this week given last year’s win, his form all year and a Memorial history that should otherwise predict a killer tournament outcome. Why? A T2 in 2011, a T8 in ’10, a T5 in ’09, a T10 in ’08, a T13 in ’07. Crap, I’ve got to use him, right? Let’s double check with stats: 26th in driving accuracy, 48th in GIR, 14th in Strokes Gained-Putting, fourth in scrambling. Got to be kidding me. Don’t be surprised if I change my lineup right before the tournament.

Hunter Mahan

I said to be prepared for some new names. I know I could pick Dustin Johnson, newly minted BMW PGA champ and rich, available single guy Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott or Phil Mickelson at this point, and I’m not down on them. But I liked that Hunter Mahan threw a 66 at us in round one of the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Mahan has given us T16, T19 and T13 finishes the last three years. He’s also had a T14 and two missed cuts. We know he’s had a few health ailments this year, but he’s 31st in Strokes Gained-Putting. If his approach shots are on, he’ll contend, because that’s been the only thing holding him back. Past years tell us he’s far better at hitting GIR than stats this year suggest. If you need the designation, call him Risk No. 6, but he should be on your radar.

Bubba Watson

I was going to include one of those other guys for this last spot, but I’ve changed my mind and I’m going Watson and sticking him on my team with the eight available starts I have from him. I’d love nothing more than to see him pink-club pound this course into submission. When you lead the Tour in driving distance, you get short approaches. He ranks seventh at GIR. Watson’s putting has been good and his scrambling just as good. This is a career year for him, and he’s exactly the kind of guy who can shoot really low on one of the first two days and be OK with a above-par round. If he does it twice, look out.

RUIN

By far, the easiest part of this column is picking who will perform the worst. Not because I’m always right, but because it’s easier to tell when someone’s game has fallen to pieces than it is to tell when they’ve put it all back together again. We usually know that bit of info a tournament or two too late. So, who hasn’t Muirfield Village been kind to? Who is just beating it around like a drunk guy on a public nine-hole course? Here’s five to avoid this week.

Nick Watney

Since a T14 in 2009, Watney has missed three consecutive cuts at the Memorial. He’s also missed his last three cuts this season and has been plagued by a sore back this season, which has caused withdrawals. That’s not a secure spot to be heading into a tournament, and his game shows a lack of touch around and on the green. That doesn’t lend itself to any low numbers.

Jason Day

Another who knows all about injury, Day makes a return to play after sitting out since The Masters because of a lingering thumb issue. All it takes is one wrong swing into thick rough to put him back on the sideline and out of the tournament. If it helps, his five Memorial results have been T41, MC, T33, T27 and MC. It’s perhaps the perfect place to return in eye of the U.S. Open and not worry about where you finish. Good for him, but not good for fantasy owners.

Webb Simpson

Elite status for the first half of the year, Simpson has been butchering it since Match Play. Three missed cuts in six starts, including The Players where he played last, Simpson too may be looking at just sharpening his game for Pinehurst. He’s definitely not entered because he’s been great at Muirfield. He’s missed his last two cuts after a T7 in ’11, and before that saw another MC and a T48. When he gets his game back, you’ll know because he’ll hammer four straight rounds in the mid-60s.

Carl Pettersson

A champion at the 2006 Memorial, Pettersson has logged just one top-10 this year and is coming off a missed cut last week, which was his fourth in his last six tournaments. At Muirfield, he’s missed three of his last five cuts, posting T28 and T29 when he got through to the weekend. Now see that his stats are 176th in driving accuracy, 119th in GIR, 111th in Strokes Gained-Putting and 155th in scrambling, and you can pretty much run out to a bookie and throw down money on a missed cut. But don’t do that. Save for a new driver. 

Lucas Glover 

I liked Glover better with a beard. I liked him better when he was making cuts too, which has happened very little this season, having missed 14 of 20 times, including his last three tournaments. His biggest challenge lies in making putts and scrambling. He’s posted some big numbers at Muirfield the last seven years, shooting just two of 18 rounds in the 60s since a T8 in 2005.

If you want to discus starts, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller, where the Memorial Tournament or the upcoming U.S. Open is fair game, or perhaps we can even talk about bad beats and childhood memories. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: B. Watson (S), G. Woodland

Group B: J. Rose (S), S. Stricker (S), B. Van Pelt, B. Haas

Group C: J.B. Holmes (S), C. Schwartzel

(Last week: 154 points; Spring segment: 1,241; Spring rank: 3,729; Season points: 3,234; Full Season rank: 1,025 – 98th percentile)

PGATour.com

B. Watson, G. Woodland, J. Rose, M. Kuchar

(Last week: 19 points; Season: 5,167; Rank: 4,524)

Golf Channel

Group 1: M. Kuchar

Group 2: L. Donald

Group 3: J.B. Holmes

Group 4: B. Davis

(Last week: $152,016/ $788,799; Season: $10,203,930; Mulligan: $86,710; Rank: 9,022 of 39,265)