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Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: The Greenbrier Classic

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Each PGA Tour tournament course has its own style and often it’s quite nice to see different challenges presented each week.

I don’t really have that feeling following the Quicken Loans National. I know that it was Congressional Country Club, site of the 2011 U.S. Open. I know it plays tough. But unless it’s a major, I don’t necessarily want a tournament to play like one.

Additionally, it feels like Justin Rose backdoored a victory. It was the same feeling you had when Webb Simpson won at the Olympic Club despite finishing well before the final groups.

I have no qualms about Rose’s long putt on hole No. 18 to force a playoff at 4-under par, but don’t forget that was for bogey! That’s far from the run of seven birdies Kevin Streelman put up to go out and grab a title away from others.

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It was also a disappointing tournament for several, such as Simpson, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth, who would seem to have the make-up and game to win a grind-it-out tournament. In the end, it was Rose who did, although, again, a 74-65-71-70 four-day scoreboard isn’t exactly friendly to the eye. In the end, I’ll remember the Quicken Loans National more for Patrick Reed’s final-round 77 to blow what should have been an easy win, with the true battle being one of attrition as everyone at the top of the Day 3 leaderboard decided to play hot potato with a $1 million check.

Attention now shifts to White Sulphur Springs, W.V., where The Greenbrier Classic will take place on historic The Old White TPC. The course has been around since 1914 but didn’t become a desirable Tour destination until tournament director Jim Justice took his millions and put it to amazing use in buying the bankrupt resort. He has poured into the local community, providing jobs and countless monies for charity, while The Greenbrier Classic became a recognized Tour spot in 2010. The resort itself, a place where 26 U.S. presidents have stayed and once served as a Cold War underground bunker, is immaculate and caused Bubba Watson to purchase property nearby.

The Old White TPC isn’t long at 7,287 yards, nor are its fairways called anything but generous, but there is a precision needed to tackle the undulating greens. Stuart Appleby shot a famous final-round 59 in the debut to polish off his win. Expect some low numbers this week as 2011 champ Scott Stallings shot a round in the 70s, shooting even par on his opening round before going low the next two days.

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Expect the winner to be someone who gets hot and shoots in the range of 13-under par, just as Jonas Blixt did last year. Here’s a fantasy golf breakdown of The Greenbrier Classic in this week’s birdie-inviting edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

The Old White TPC is an homage to the fun you can have on a golf course, especially in its mimickery of several European holes, such as No. 15, which is modeled after the Eden at St. Andrews. Of course, The Greenbrier is all about fun, since Maroon 5 and Jimmy Buffett will both play concerts this week as Independence Day is celebrated on the PGA Tour.

You know who hasn’t had fun in West Virginia? Jeff Overton. Still without a victory on Tour, Overton shot 64-62-66-67 in 2010, falling victim to Appleby’s historic round by one shot. Now that’s a tough beat.

Make note of past leaderboards this week as it likely won’t be a big name that puts up a win. Rather, it will be someone riding a wave of hot play. That was Ted Potter Jr.’s route in 2012, using a then-Hooters Tour win to make the PGA Tour and perhaps get toasty at just the right time to cash in. Here are this week’s riskier picks that may just have timely and optimal desire.

Charles Howell III

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Taking second-place to Overton in lack of luck at The Greenbrier could easily be Howell III, who played a bogey-free tournament in 2010 and finished T9. He finished T32 the next year but has missed the cut the last two years, making him a true risk this week. On the year though, Howell III has eight top-25s and six top-10s, including a T3 in mid-May at the Byron Nelson. Statistically, he measures up to have a good week, which really comes down to how he putts.

Hudson Swafford

Learning the ups and downs of the PGA Tour isn’t something a rookie often grasps immediately. Former Georgia All-American Swafford posted a T30, T8 and T25 in three of his first six tournaments. The other three went for missed cuts. After that, Swafford found the going hard, struggling to make cuts and score when he did. Then he had a U.S. Open qualifier in Memphis and won medalist honors. He shot 67-78 and MC’d at the St. Jude Classic, but it was the start of finding something. His last two tournaments are a T24 at the Travelers (66-71-66-69) and a T11 at the Quicken Loans National (69-68-73-74). Looks like a good time to ride the wave of solid play.

Brendan Steele 

Brendan_Steele-1200

With seven top-25s and four top-10s already this season, Steele is well on his way to posting his best year in his fourth season on Tour. Not only that, but he’s coming off back-to-back T5’s. Steele tied for 41st last season in his debut, shooting 66-70-72-69. At 30th in GIR and 55th in SG-P and a bit of length off the tee, Steele could find his away around The Old White TPC with no problem and net his first victory since his rookie year at the Valero Texas Open.

Patrick Rodgers

It’s not often a golfer’s name follows Tiger Woods’ and his list of accomplishments are on the same standing. But Rodgers was a two-time All-American at Stanford and the No. 1 amateur in the world with just as many victories as Woods up exit a few weeks ago to turn pro. He’s played two Tour events and has two made cuts. While he tied for 55th last week, his T46th at the Travelers (66-69-71-70) showed he is capable of scoring. He’s a reach, but it’s not a bad one given his ability and proven track record in the vein of Jordan Spieth.

Brendon de Jonge

Brendon+De+Jonge+Viking+Classic+Round+Three+QIVrquN7bktl

Looking for a golfer on a hot streak? Zimbabwe native de Jonge should be on your short list. He’s on a run of good play, culminating in a T8 last week, which coincides well with a strong history at The Old White TPC. He tied for 17th last year (66-68-73-66), tied for 52nd the year before (74-64-68-71) and also turned in a T4 in ’11 and solo third in ’10. The difference in the result has been a matter of one high round. Either way, he likes the course and three rounds of low scores is a nice security blanket.

REWARD

As I previously stated, it likely won’t be a big name that wins. That said, it doesn’t mean the chalk won’t score and put themselves in the top 10. We’re now down to nine tournaments left in the fantasy season and starts available are at a premium. And since the Yahoo summer segment has just started, this is the perfect opportunity to get away from popular names to find a sleeper. Still, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention those that have the pedigree to buck the trend. Here’s your picks for reward this week.

Jimmy Walker

2Jimmy+Walker+Hyundai+Tournament+Champions+tfrESCAs37vl

If there’s one who has yet to grab the annointing of the general public as a primetime player, it’s Walker. The casual fan knows little of him, but any moderate follower of the Tour is aware he’s won three times already this season. Given that he finished as the runner-up last year and tied for fourth in 2010 and 2011, it will be really hard to look away from the solid Texan. Walker has pushed game to an elite level with top-10s in both majors this year.

Steve Stricker

I’ve got starts to burn with Stricker, as should most because of his limited playing schedule, so it’s enticing to use on the sturdiest golfers on Tour, regardless of his frequency in teeing it up. Stricker earned a T22 in 2012, shooting 69-67-68-68, which is the only time he’s played The Greenbrier. Consistent scoring is probably a reasonable expectation for this week as well with the outside possibility of a few strokes lower. All in all, it’s good upside and no downside.

Bubba Watson

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I’d say the likelihood of Watson shooting 64-74 and missing the cut is the highest of anyone in the field, but it will be really hard to keep the two-time winner on Tour this year out of your lineup. Amazingly, he only finished T30 last year in his one and only trip. Watson shot 68-69-69-69 to fall back of the pace by eight strokes, but given his success this year, it’s reasonable to expect better. The course won’t hold him, and unless his aggressive approach goes awry, he should create numerous scoring chances.

Bill Haas

Haas has won a tournament the last four years but is winless this year with 11 top-25s and three top-10s. With two of those top-10s in his last four starts, Haas is warming up at a time of year whenever he normally cashes in. He tied for ninth last year (68-67-67-70), T32 in ’12 (68-69-65-72) and lost in a playoff in ’11 (71-67-65-67) in his three trips to The Old White TPC. He’s probably a must in Yahoo leagues, given group B’s four slots.

Brendon Todd

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Hard to ignore this former Georgia star with what he’s done in his last five tournaments. Since his win at the Byron Nelson, Todd has issued T5, T8, T17 and T5 results, finishing under par in four of the five, the only outlier being the tough navigation of Pinehurst No. 2. Todd tied for 46th in his 2012 debut, shooting 70-69-68-69. A strong result when he was just a rookie should solidify his standing now in a breakout year.

RUIN

A bad number didn’t hurt at Congressional, but anything higher than par will severely hamper this week’s golfers, and it will likely lead to a missed cut. That’s a little bit scary because a morning round on soft greens may go well for a Thursday start, but the switch to a Friday afternoon tee time will test those that can’t control their distance or make putts as greens speed up. If you’re in a daily fantasy league, this will be one week to watch the weather and the tee times, but also looking for someone with touch around and on the green. Blixt is a good example of someone whose finesse with a short iron led to success. Others don’t have that quality in their game. Here are five I struggle to find value in this week.

Johnson Wagner

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The state of Wagner’s game is that he’s missed 13 cuts in 19 tries this year. It’s so bad that only normal scoring courses, such as the Puerto Rico Open, he also MC’d. Wagner tied for second last year via two low rounds of 62 and 64, and he entered in similar form, but it’s beyond a risk to think he will duplicate that effort. While his other two Greenbrier results show three rounds in the 60’s, Wagner statistically is at the bottom of the Tour in hitting GIR, fairways, driving distance and is hardly putting well. You’re digging a little too deep if you use him this week.

Steven Bowditch

Since Bowditch’s surprising win at the Valero Texas Open, he’s struggled to find anything close to a low score. In San Antonio, he had three rounds in the 60’s but closed with a 76. Since, he’s played 24 rounds without shooting in the 60’s and has missed six cuts. He tied for 21st last week and posted a T2 at The Greenbrier last year, shooting 65-67-69-68, but similar to Wagner, it’s scary hoping a golfer bucks a long trend just to grab a result more readily apparent from others. Bowditch has also has a MC and T18 in his history at The Old White TPC.

Keegan Bradley

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Since we’re looking off the beaten trail for golfers and shunning some big names, I’m going to throw Bradley on this ruin list since he just can’t seem to find that next gear to his game on what should be winnable courses or in winnable tournaments. Bradley tied for 46th in 2012, firing 68-68-66-74, and he was T43 in ’11, shooting 72-67-69-71. I think those scores demonstrate the frustration with using him. You just expect a better result and, whether it’s a lack of focus or a breakdown in some component of his game, he’s not posting an elite score.

Spencer Levin

With nine missed cuts in his last 11 starts, Levin’s game isn’t displaying any finesse. He opened at Congressional with a 69, then shot 74-73-76 the rest of the way to finish T64. His first try at The Greenbrier in 2010 resulted in a T21, shooting 66-67-67-68. That was a good year for him and about the best you can hope for. His last two tries have placed him inside the cutline but back of the pack, with little to show for in quality rounds. I’d use Wagner or Bowditch before Levin and I’d rather avoid all three.

Martin Flores

Martin-Flores-June-2012_2790689

In recent weeks, several fantasy writers have offered up Flores as someone to go low. His solo third at the Wells Fargo Championship is still his only top-10 of the year, though he does have seven top-25s. His last eight rounds have been on the high side, however, and a high round this week puts you out of the mix. Flores learned that last year when rounds of 65 and 68 were offset by rounds of 71 and 74, resulting in a T54. He’s a capable kid as his sixth-place debut (64-68-69-67) of 2012 indicated, but this is another case where I’ll take recent hot play over course history. Ideally, you find a bit of both.

That’s all for this week. If you’d like to further discuss fantasy selections for The Greenbrier Classic, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best of luck on your week and thanks for reading!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Leishman (S), G. Woodland

Group B: B. de Jonge (S), B. Haas (S), C. Kirk, S. Stricker

Group C: B. Todd (S), J. Walker

(Last week: 149 points; Spring segment: 1,733; Summer rank: 21,114; Season points: 3,915; Full Season rank: 1,211 – 98th percentile)

PGATour.com

B. Watson, B. Todd, B. Haas, M. Leishman

(Last week: 208 points; Season: 6,264; Rank: 4,141)

Golf Channel

The Greenbrier Classic

Group 1: B. Haas

Group 2: B. Todd

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: H. Swafford

(Last week: $323,050; Season: $12,205,845; Mulligan: $106,522; Rank: 8,434 of 40,214)

Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: Fantasy Golf Cheat Sheet: The Greenbrier Classic | Spacetimeandi.com

  2. Carl

    Jul 1, 2014 at 8:33 pm

    How does your Yahoo league add points up? I started the same as you last week and did not get 149 points.

    • Brian Miller

      Jul 1, 2014 at 11:58 pm

      I think it’s standard across the board. I kept the Day 1 starters for Day 2, then subbed out Day who MC’d for Garrigus. Subbed out Hoffman for Todd final two days as well, and played Woodland on final day. Todd got 5 bonus pts for finishing 3rd. The breakdown was 30 pts + 30 pts + 42 pts + 42 pts + 5 bonus = 149

      • Carl

        Jul 2, 2014 at 12:55 am

        Oh I’m sorry my league doesn’t allow substitutions so I had to keep Day in the whole week. Didn’t know standard let you sub

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