Going back to being a kid, the British Open has always been my favorite major tournament.

While I love the Masters, I’ve always been incited in my soul by wind, cloudy conditions and the imagery of a salty sea meeting open topography along its coast. There’s an enormous sense of history when you watch The Open Championship. Additionally, the strategies that dominate links golf in opposition to the three majors played on American soil accentuate its fundamental difference in the landscape of golf course iconography.

The site of this year’s Open Championship is Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England, last seen eight years ago when Tiger Woods won by famously hitting driver just once amid baked-dry conditions. Navigating a links golf course and nasty pot bunkers means accuracy off the tee, but also a low ball flight. Understanding undulations—  although Royal Liverpool is relatively flat—  and run-out is also key. Those that can putt from longer distances have an advantage, as do those that can manage longer iron shots to put themselves in a position for bogey avoidance. Consider those three statistical areas to look at when making fantasy selections.

Outside of that, ability to play links golf is a big predictor, as is current form, because confidence will be needed, whether it’s chopping out of thick fescue or facing steep-walled bunker shots. Everyone will have that challenge this week, and with the top of the leaderboard likely to sit closer to par than the 22-under that won the John Deere Classic, you only fall out of contention if you keep making mistake after mistake.

Congratulations to Brian Harman on his first PGA Tour victory, by the way. He’s the sixth former Georgia Bulldog to do so this season. It was a reminder that you don’t need to be the most talented to win on Tour, though it helps, you really just need to manage your emotions, trust the strengths of your game and be advantageous when the opportunity presents itself.

It’s time to break down fantasy selections for The Open Championship in this week’s major edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

If you look at history, whoever wins at Hoylake and gets their name etched onto the Claret Jug, will likely seem like an improbable winner. Not because the name isn’t recognizable, but because rarely is the front runner a foregone conclusion with the nuances of links golf.

You don’t have to be long to win, but you can be. You don’t have to be the best putter, just the timeliest. You don’t have to be the most talented, just most opportune. It’s why Phil Mickelson can come from behind on a Sunday while Lee Westwood and Hunter Mahan collapse.

It’s why even a three-shot lead going into the final hole isn’t a sign of a win, it’s just another time to bring up Jean Van de Velde and Carnoustie’s infamous bern. It’s why Tom Watson had a chance to win at age 59. It’s why Padraig Harrington can win back-to-back titles. Anything can happen in The Open and that makes the field wide open.

Tiger Woods

Why not Tiger? If you’re looking for an improbable winner, give it to the guy who knows how to keep himself in a tournament when nothing else is going right. He’s had time to practice and he doesn’t have to kill his back with a lot of full-swing drivers. His name may be the most recognizable and probably has the most followers, but Tiger is definitely an underdog. How nice to hit low irons and let the ball run? There’s no way he wants to hit out of the thick stuff, so expect a conservative Woods, whose reputation on links courses is obviously extremely strong with three Open titles.

Thomas Bjorn

Since most of you readers probably don’t follow along too closely with the European Tour, the name Thomas Bjorn may not mean much. But we’re talking about the leader in the Race To Dubai, who has a win and five other top-10s in 14 Euro starts. He finished T24 at last week’s Scottish Open and finished T8 at The Masters. Bjorn, whose beard drastically enhances his toughness, finished solo fourth at the ’11 British Open and finished T41 at Hoylake in ’06. He’s under the radar, so a good selection given how well his form is this season. I’m sure he’d like to erase memories of ’03 too, when he nearly won the Open but botched a two-stroke lead on the 16th at Royal St. Georges. Bjorn also has a T2 from ’00 and a T9 in ’98. He’d be a feel-good story from the lead pack.

Martin Kaymer

This year’s runaway U.S. Open champion and breakout winner of The Players Championship, Kaymer has ended any lingering doubts about his game. Given how he destroyed a very links-like Pinehurst No. 2, it’s hard to knock him here. My only question will be how his shot shape fits Royal Liverpool. His last two tournaments since his major win are an MC and a T12 on the Euro Tour. During his previous best year of 2010, he finished T7 at the British after coming off a T8 at the U.S. Open. He’s proving to be a major contender, but I wouldn’t call him one of the favorites.

Angel Cabrera

El Pato, long a known commodity during major tournaments, probably is more known for his Masters and U.S. Open success than his British aptitude. But Cabrera finished T7 back in ’06, and after a slow start to this season because of a shoulder injury, he’s recovered to fire off T11 and T24 finishes prior to his first non-major win at The Greenbrier Classic. Cabrera tied for 11th last year and has a T24 in ’09. Anything can happen, which is our theme for this week, and the Argentinian finds a way to keep putting himself in positions to win, no matter what the tournaments call for. He’s a nice complement to other Yahoo group B choices.

Matt Kuchar

We really haven’t heard much from Kuchar lately, which makes him one of the perfect people to sneak in and grab his first major championship. With 13 top-25s and nine top-10s this season, including a win at the RBC Heritage, Kuchar should be on any short list. His past British results have been T15, T27, MC, T27, MC, MC, MC, all since the last go-round at Hoylake, which he didn’t play. Nothing elite and that’s the issue with Kuchar in putting his name where he so desires it with the best players in the sport. The statistics all point to success, but he just has to close it out on the course, and we’ve yet to see that.

REWARD

Remember, just because they look like they should win The Open doesn’t mean that they will. The good news is they’re heavy odds to post a good score and not a top-10. I really like this top five and keep coming back to them time and again. I hope it pans out. My biggest struggle this year in daily fantasy leagues (read: Yahoo) has been starting all the wrong guys for each round. As a result, the huge lead I built at the beginning of the year is providing cushion as I lose 10 points a day recently. Amazingly, I have just one weekly win on the year, while competitors have five, yet I still hold a 150-point lead. In some ways, my struggles may mirror our chalk this week. Can they stay consistent when someone puts up a low score and stay in contention. Enough about me, let’s get to the Reward for this week.

Justin Rose

Winning back-to-back events and becoming the Scottish Open champion doesn’t really provide evidence to becoming The Open winner. But how can you ignore a guy who knows how to grind out wins on different types of courses? From the U.S. Open to normal Tour stops to undulating Scottish venues, Rose is showing a total game and a champion mentality. Yeah, his British Open success is spotty, but whose isn’t when the course rotation changes as much as it does? He has a T13 in ’09, in which he shot 69-72-71-70. It’s not like he’s incapable of playing well on a links course. Now at No. 3 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Rose is as hot as they come and playing possibly the best golf of his career.

Henrik Stenson

I love Stenson from Yahoo A this week. Not only is he Hoylake experienced, having finished T46 in ’06, but he owns three top-three finishes in The Open. Mix in his hotness at posting five recent top-10 finishes and you’ve got a ball-striker with ability. Stenson actually finished second last year when others collapsed around him. The guy knows how to close and shows the ability to pull away from his competitors, as evidenced during his impressive two-victory run to the FedEx Cup title last year. He’s still the No. 2 golfer in the OWGR and has played the U.S. Open to a T4 and The Masters to a T14 this season. I expect more of the same.

Rory McIlroy

Everyone should start Rory in round one. Everyone should bench Rory for round two. I’m doing exactly that and I expect McIlroy will work some magic along the way to a top-10 finish. McIlroy has four top-10’s on the Euro Tour this season, including a win at the BMW PGA Championship. He finished 7-under at the Scottish Open, and then on the PGA Tour, McIlroy has six top-10s with a playoff loss. Yeah, he has his share of missed cuts, but he also has a T3 at the 2010 British … in which he shot 80! That’s right: 63-80-69-68. Like any golfer, he’ll have his growing pains, but he’s also so talented it’s hard to keep him off your team.

Adam Scott

He’s the No. 1 player in the world with a chip on his shoulder from blowing a four-shot lead in 2012 with four holes to go last year. Scott followed that solo second up with a T3 last year, proving his moxie. He may actually be undervalued in Yahoo A, much like Stenson and he wants that Claret Jug enormously. While he hasn’t played since the U.S. Open, in which he finished T9, he’s already nailed down seven top-10s on Tour this season and a win. Scott also has a T25, two T27s, and a T16 in his Open resume since a T8 at Hoylake in ’06. Get ready to blow one of his starts with confidence.

Luke Donald

Maybe Donald’s inclusion might surprise you, given I could name off Jim Furyk, Sergio Garcia or several others and you’d be right in making a case for them. But Donald has a high value for Yahoo A this week with many that will choose Tiger, Phil or Bubba. So first, let’s name some things that Donald does well. Hits fairways. Putts well. Great short game. Ranks high in scrambling. Ranks 24th on Tour in approach from 200-225 yards. Ranks 16th in putts from 20-25 feet. Ranks 25th in three-putt avoidance. He will never wow you with a long drive, but watching him at the Scottish Open, where he finished T16, he showed precision on a tough course to navigate. He has five top-10s worldwide this season and has finished T5 and T11 in past Open Championships. Donald tied for 35th at Hoylake in ’06, firing a 68 in round two.

RUIN

The definition for ruin is different this week in comparison with other weeks. You can dig up almost anyone that’s missed a cut over the years at The Open. What I’m evaluating for the purposes of the five golfers below is the destructive nature in which a whole tournament can go to waste. I feel confident in many golfers, even if they don’t pan out, but there are those that I just want to outright avoid because there seems to be a little too much wishful thinking.

Lee Westwood

We have a big enough sample size to know that Westwood doesn’t come through in big moments. If you want to use him, I understand your historic reasoning that he’s probably a strong enough irons player to get a top-25 or better. But if you’re playing him thinking he’ll win, that’s where you go awry, and even then his game doesn’t look in good shape. Entering Hoylake, he’s coming off a missed cut at the Scottish Open, which also happens to be his third in a row. He’s been quoted as saying he’s mentally out of the sport right now and needs practice time. Lack of motivation will kill you every time.

Bubba Watson

Think Watson can holster his driver? Not a chance. That’s my dread. He’s plenty long enough with his irons to play Hoylake in a smart fashion. But I’m worried he’ll see the wide open expanses and no trees blocking his view and want to just smash the ball over everything. That’s a good way to wind up in the undesirable thick fescue or in the Irish Sea. Honestly, I’m worried about the big number from Watson. Pinehurst No. 2 was a good indication (76-70, MC) that what makes him successful can also shoot him in the foot. Watson’s British Open history tells us just that, with two good rounds being undone by the two rounds where he needs to mash the brake and not the gas pedal.

Jason Dufner

It’s mid-July and Dufner has yet to show a hot streak or a game that resembles the periods of elite golf he displayed the last two years. Don’t worry, that’s coming soon as he always gets hot at the end of the year. He has four top-10s this season, including a playoff loss at the Crowne Plaza Invitational and is starting to trend upward, but I’d wait two weeks when he tees it up at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He has two MC’s and two middle-of-the-pack results in his four British starts, the better finishes being buoyed by two rounds in the 60s, which would be OK if his scoring wasn’t all over the place. The biggest thing that will hold him back this week is his approach shots and poor putting. I like him, but not on this venue.

Ian Poulter

Before Poulter got an MRI to get checked out for a wrist injury suffered in Monday’s practice round, I was on the fence about Poulter, since he has had good British finishes. But the injury is problematic because that rough will wrap around an iron. I can’t risk a WD at this moment, especially on someone who is spotty even when healthy. He tied for sixth at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, which was his only quality four-day total in quite some time. He missed the cut at Hoylake in ’06, shooting 75-76, but you may remember him for the T3 he had last year or the T9 in ’12. He had a solo second in ’08, but he’s had his share of bad tournaments as well. Maybe this makes him a risk, but the injury pushes him in my mind out of any talk of inclusion. 

Justin Leonard

Leonard’s make-up is that of a major champion, having won the 1997 British Open, losing in a playoff in ’99, and tying for eighth in ’09. Yet he’s entering as a very average golfer. Statistically, he’s near dead last in approach from 200-225 yards and is 134th on Tour in putting from 20-25 feet. He has some intangibles such as experience, driving accuracy and good scrambling ability, but he’s such a stretch to include on your roster given at least a dozen other names that will be playing Royal Liverpool with more attuned games. I will make an exception, and that is in Golf Channel group 4, but daily fantasy leagues should stay away.

If you’d like to further discuss fantasy selections for The British Open, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller. Best of luck on your week and thanks for reading!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: A. Scott (S), H. Stenson

Group B: R. McIlroy (S), J. Rose (S), J. Furyk, M. Kaymer

Group C: T. Bjorn (S), S. Garcia

(Last week: 142 points; Summer segment: 393; Summer rank: 34,423; Season points: 4,159; Full Season rank: 2,305 – 97th percentile)

PGATour.com

M. Kaymer, J. Rose, A. Cabrera, T. Woods

(Last week: 369 points; Season: 6,828; Rank: 3,819)

Golf Channel

The British Open

Group 1: H. Stenson

Group 2: S. Garcia

Group 3: H. Mahan

Group 4: J. Leonard

(Last week: $152,499; Season: $12,802,675; Mulligan: $106,522; Rank: 9,572 of 40,363)