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Why Sergio Garcia isn’t going to end his career without a major

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This summer has been an eventful one for Sergio Garcia. Three tournaments, three finishes of 13-under or better. He’s found peace and maturity in older age. And he might be engaged to a caddie who sports a 100 percent win rate on his bag.

Yep, two months of wildly successful times for the Serge…except a mop-headed punk keeps fortifying a brick wall that separates Garcia from his dreams.

The story of the summer has been The Rise of Rory McIlroy (Act III), as the 25-year-old Northern Irishman can’t seem to stop winning: The BMW PGA Championship, the Open Championship, the Bridgestone, they all come to him!

The latter two arrived at the expense of runner-up Garcia, who also temporarily destroyed a wedding ring around the same time he may have put one on his own girl’s finger.

For the 34-year-old, this has been a continuation of a career-long hex. Certainly the Spaniard’s 19 combined PGA and European Tour victories are nothing to sniff at. But he has seemed to get in his own way at times, and his major-less record remains an extraordinary cross to bear.

He’s risen to No. 3 in the world and still can’t get a major win. Heck, he produced some of his best professional golf in 2014 and has but one win to show for it.

Really, in one sense, Garcia’s 2014 serves as another confirmation that a major title will not be among his golfing accomplishments.

Yet on the eve of the PGA Championship, I defend the opposite tact. More than ever, I’m convinced Garcia will eventually hurl the major monkey off his back.

The caveats here are real, and I’ve already listed some above, but more sound affirmative reasons manifest themselves.

First, we must understand that Garcia’s 2014 campaign is not an aberration. Four years ago, a distraught and heartbroken Spaniard harbored thoughts of quitting the game amid poor form and the aftermath of a crushing breakup. He dropped as far as 85th in the world.

But the response to the wading period was robust. Garcia’s game began to re-emerge in the middle of 2011 and then bullied its way back to top billing with back-to-back victories (including a 11-shot triumph) in the fall.

That bumped him back up to 17th in the World Golf Rankings, a seven top-10, one-win 2012 steadied him at 16th and a nine top-10 campaign the next year mosied him to 10th. And Garcia’s 2014 has been beyond phenomenal. In 19 events, he boasts 10 top-10s and seven top-threes—many of which came in huge tournaments.

Garcia, then, returned to his world-class form four years ago and has put his game on a steady incline since. Based on this pattern, even accounting for a bit of regression in 2015, Garcia is in line to retain his world-class play for years ahead. And elite-level performance means more legitimate shots at majors.

Then there’s the specter of Garcia’s age. While the Spaniard’s stay in the professional game seems ancient, he is still just 34 years old. And that is a pretty good spot to be in for this sport. As the narrative goes, golfers tend to peak in their early- to mid-30s.

Initial analytics research into this field proves this theory. A comprehensive statistical look produced these findings: Golfers tend to peak from 29-to-34 and only start experiencing any significant decline around age 38. So, according to this information, maybe he’s already wasted some of his best years, but Garcia is afforded a few more seasons at or near his peak before his play is expected to drop off.

This graph is only a generality of the whole membership though. While the general aging curve suggests a sizable and consistent improvement for a player throughout his 20s and a holding pattern in the early part of his 30s, Garcia’s line of progress would be far different.

The Spaniard was already one of the world’s best players by 21, and largely remained there through age 28. Instead of a steadying rise in the 20s then, Garcia’s chart would show a rather flat line. And while the general professional golfer continues to improve (at a lesser rate) from 29-to-30, Garcia’s graph would see a significant dip. We’re already talking an extraordinarily different path from the norm.

What does this mean for Garcia’s future for winning majors though?

Well, instead of “the few great years left, then rapid decline” theory, I’d pose that Garcia not only retains his top-notch play for several years, but also produces better golf than he ever has.

The two biggest knocks against Sergio have been his poor mental game and his putting. On the first point, there is no shortage of articles detailing the stunning transformation of Garcia from insolent sap to enlightened optimist.

Some are skeptical of the truth behind these claims, and they are probably correct to question. With Garcia, the emotional tornado is never far below the surface, and we are only a year removed from the fried chicken firestorm.

Still, he’s no longer the guy prone to conspiracy theories involving unfair USGA-Tiger Woods cooperation or the wrath of the golf gods. There is some truth to the more peaceful existence Garcia feels in competition. The mental game is stronger than it used to be, even if the Sunday results haven’t bared that out yet.

As for putting, the improvement there is staggering. Garcia only once placed among the top 100 in strokes gained putting prior to 2012, but in his past three seasons shows up 26th, 8th and 15th. As GolfWRX’s own Rich Hunt noted in 2013, the trend was met by a decline Garcia’s tee-to-green play.

In his 2014 campaign though, Garcia has recovered his elite ball-striking ability, especially on approaches. He’s currently 4th in GIR and 9th in Proximity to the Hole, a combination that maybe nobody on the PGA Tour can beat.

What this all means is that Garcia has minimized or mastered his weaknesses, and never truly lost his strengths; they were just lying dormant. In essence, the Spaniard possesses more tools in his arsenal than ever and is in no danger of losing them. That puts him right in line to bring his game to a new peak, a peak that is unlikely not to yield a major championship.

The biggest reason for a Garcia major title though may have nothing to do with how good a golfer he is. The Spaniard is simply due for a turnaround in luck.

As much as we hem and haw about the massive difference between first and second place in major championships, many times the truth is somewhere in between. Ernie Els’ performance at the 2012 Open Championship was far from masterful, but he was holding the Claret Jug in the end. Meanwhile, Chris DiMarco produced a stunning 12-under total on a tough Augusta National track in 2005 and whipped the field by seven shots…except for Tiger Woods, who he lost to in a playoff.

Unfortunately for Garcia, his luck in major championships has always fallen on the DiMarco side of affairs. It’s long been posited that the Spaniard simply doesn’t have it in him to produce a major-title-worthy performance. He has runner-up-esque stuff, just not 72 holes of golf fit for a major winner.

Except that’s a complete myth. Three times Garcia nailed together major-winning title material only to be struck down by extraordinary performances or a stroke of poor luck. There was the infamous 2007 Open Championship where Garcia bemoaned the golf gods’ wrath against his major championship aspirations.

While more petulant than realistic, Garcia had a legitimate gripe–at least one on stroke. The fact is, he had an 8-footer to win the tournament, hit a good putt and it didn’t drop. Actually, despite not taking the correct break, the putt still caught easily enough lip to fall in (like this), but refused to cooperate.

The next year, Garcia began the final round of the PGA Championship three off the lead, shot a magnificent 68 on a brutal Oakland Hills layout but couldn’t close the gap to victory. What happened? Padraig Harrington put up a miraculous 66, holing ridiculous putt after ridiculous putt after ridiculous putt to crush his rival’s spirit. If Harrington doesn’t play out of his mind, Garcia likely holds a multiple shot lead heading into the closing holes while executing extremely good golf. He probably wins.

Finally we look back to last month. Maybe Royal Liverpool isn’t the toughest layout on the Open rota, but when the rough is up as it was in 2014, certainly 15-under is a solid winning score. Want proof? By all accounts, Rory McIlroy needed an incredible performance to shoot 17-under, just two better than the score indicated. Garcia of course managed that 15-under number, including a final-round 66, but did so the same week of McIlroy’s maestro showing.

All of this is to say that Garcia is more than capable of a major-title worthy display. He has done so three times with no trophies to show for it! Just because Garcia has experienced so much misfortune doesn’t mean he is due a gift win of the Els ilk. But if his luck is simply neutral, his fourth instance of trophy-caliber play will finally net him that elusive major crown.

Alan Shipnuck is one of the best golf writers on the planet, but I found a statement he made some weeks ago alarmingly off base. In Golf.com’s PGA Tour Confidential, he stated that the Open “felt a little bit like Sergio’s last stand.”

Hardly. It seemed more like a first stand of many in the coming years.

Garcia has years of consistently good form under his belt, appears poised for a career apex in subsequent campaigns and is bound to produce a victorious major performance that isn’t hijacked by some outside force.

Yes, McIlroy is in Garcia’s way, but the streaky Northern Irishman is only going to show up at a select few majors.

If you’ve already given up on Garcia, I would come back around. In 2012, Garcia himself (erroneously) agreed with you. Two years later, he is shooting 15-under at a major and is No. 3 in the world.

It could happen by this Sunday night, it may take another three years. Either way Garcia’s triumph will happen. And the only hole in his resume will be filled.

Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. D

    Aug 19, 2014 at 5:26 pm

    Monty 2.0. Great in the Ryder Cup but Bollocks in majors. Always misses the must make shot. Too bad cause Sergio takes a back seat to almost nobody when it comes to striking the ball.

  2. Tin Whistle

    Aug 7, 2014 at 3:55 pm

    I hope you are correct…

  3. TheLegend

    Aug 7, 2014 at 11:33 am

    He will never win a Major. Never Never.

  4. dapadre

    Aug 7, 2014 at 11:05 am

    I would love to see him win and I think he deserves it but, I wonder if he has the nerves to. Even he has questioned himself on this in the press. I think he handles pressure poorly.

  5. steve

    Aug 7, 2014 at 10:52 am

    Didnt read the article. But have some advice change the headline.sell the sizzle not the steak. How about ” Sergio will win a Major”. Short and sweet, the current headline is long, boring and draws no interest

    • Roger in New Zealand

      Aug 7, 2014 at 1:39 pm

      Heading”” Fans on WRX can’t wait for Sergio’s Major Success””

  6. antonio

    Aug 7, 2014 at 4:36 am

    In addition to his top game and although he has made some mistakes throughout his career (who hasn’t), he is a truly sincere and good person. He will get a major he deserves it.

  7. Dreg Golf

    Aug 7, 2014 at 1:29 am

    Go to your local event and watch this kid hit driver…it’s amazing in person….the speed, velocity and height.

  8. tank

    Aug 6, 2014 at 8:38 pm

    I wanna like this guy but he’s made so many stupid moves in his career i can’t even remember half of them. its like he wants us to hate him

    • Christosterone

      Aug 7, 2014 at 12:51 am

      He has been very odd/whiny at times(spitting in the cup)….
      But i have always loved his candid interviews and the fact that he answers questions honestly.
      We’ve all been at a point wondering if the golf gods hate us…its just unfathomable that one of the top 10 ball strikers of his generation would share he feels this way as well…
      I really hope he gets an open or a PGA at some point in his career because I LOVE a redemption story.
      Good Luck Sergio(except at the Ryder Cup)

  9. Martin

    Aug 6, 2014 at 8:12 pm

    I would love to see Sergio win a major, it would be the only thing better than watching him play like Seve in the Ryder Cup.

  10. Christosterone

    Aug 6, 2014 at 4:29 pm

    There is no cooler shot in golf today than Sergio’s shoulder high driver that he pounds from time to time.
    I am a HUGE fan of his and would love to see him fulfill his destiny as Seve’s heir apparent.

    • Ballstriker

      Aug 8, 2014 at 2:14 am

      The young man himself stated that he did not have the pedigree to win a major. I tend to believe him, until he proves otherwise. He’s had ample opportunities to grab the torch, but the handle just may be too hot for the ill tempered one.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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