Opinion & Analysis
10 Players Who Will Rise (or Fall) in 2015

Before last season, I ran through the players that were projected to rise and decline in the 2013-2014 season. With the start of the 2014-2015 season coming this week, I wanted to go through the projections. The rankings in the tables below are based out of 177 players.
PLAYERS ON THE RISE
BILLY HURLEY III
One of the things I established a few years ago with my research was the idea of what I call The Four Cornerstones of the game. Recently, I altered the 4 cornerstones of the game just slightly:
- Driving Effectiveness
- Red Zone play (shots from 175-225 yards)
- Shots from 10-20 yards
- Make Percentage from 3-15 feet
Hurley achieved all of those 4 cornerstones of the game. Not only do the 4 cornerstones have a strong correlation to success on Tour, but they also have correlated strongly to getting a Tour victory, soon. Ben Curtis achieved the 4 cornerstones in 2011 despite only finishing 133rd on the Money List went on to win the next season at the Valero Texas Open. Matt Jones accomplished the 4 cornerstones in 2013 and finished 48th on the Money List and then went on to win at Houston this past season.
Hurley accomplished all of the 4 cornerstones last season and finished 91st on the Money List. He does not hit it that far and that may hold him back a little, along with having a below average Purse Size per Event played.
BRIAN STUARD
Stuard is much like Hurley in that he accomplished the 4 cornerstones last season and does not hit it far. However, he is a much better birdie maker (41st) than Hurley (157th), but has gotten off to slow starts in rounds 1 and 2. If he can improve his play in rounds 1 and 2, he is projected to have a great season.
TROY MERRITT
Merritt’s ball striking metrics were very impressive, but he struggled a bit from 10-20 yards and on putts outside 15 feet. The putting from outside 15 feet should progress toward the mean according to PGA Tour trends.
PAUL CASEY
Casey started to make a comeback after numerous injuries. He was actually an even better putter prior to his injuries than he is now, which is still pretty good. The big issue for Casey is his driving, but I could see him winning an event where the course is pretty wide open and receptive to very errant tee shots.
RUSSELL KNOX
The strength of Knox’s game in his short career has been his ballstriking and that allowed him to rank 28th in Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average and 5th in Bogey Avoidance, which are the two key scoring metrics. He was also very good in rounds before the cut, ranking 40th in Adjusted Round 1 and 12th in Adjusted Round 2 Scoring Averages.
He now is now very good on Short Game shots from 10-to-20 yards. The only thing that is lagging behind is his putting. But, Knox is an AimPoint user and the trend with AimPoint users on Tour is that they typically see major improvements in their putting statistics after 3-to-12 months of using the green reading methodology.
Honorable Mention: Robert Garrigus, Brooks Koepka, Robert Streb, Jhonattan Vegas and Nick Watney
PLAYERS ON THE DECLINE
JONAS BLIXT
I picked Blixt last season and outside of a 2nd place finish at the Masters he did not record any other top-10 finishes. That will earn him a second invite to Augusta, but his exemption to Doral and Firestone will run out and I don’t believe he will be eligible for the Accenture Match Play.
His putting regressed a bit as I projected last year as he finished 33rd in Strokes Gained – Putting, but a large part of finishing even that well in Strokes Gained – Putting came from his ability to make putts from longer than 15 feet. The definitive trend on Tour is for a player that makes a lot of putts outside 15 feet to eventually regress toward the mean and that should affect his effectiveness on the greens. His short game also regressed this past season, but those are of secondary importance if he cannot improve his ball striking to a serviceable level.
RORY SABBATINI
Sabbatini’s strengths of his game over the years has been his Yellow Zone play and Short Game play. Strong players from the Yellow Zone tend to make more Birdies on the par-4’s, and the short game play typically cleans up any mistakes and can save par. That is how Sabbatini has been so successful over the years.
Scoring wise he ranked 151st in Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average and 153rd in Bogey Rate which are two critical scoring metrics on Tour. While he is still better than average from the Yellow Zone and on shots from 10-to-20 yards, his performance in those categories has taken a noticeable dip as of late. He is also seeing a dip in his club head speed of about 2 mph. That may not sound like much, but on Tour the dip in club head speed does not have to be very much for it to have a strong trend toward a regression in the player’s performance.
MATT JONES
Last season I had Jones as my projected players to rise and he ended up winning at Houston. The best indicator of a player’s iron skill are shots from the fairway/tee box. Jones fell from 96th to 150th in 2014, so his iron play completely fell apart and his play from 10-to-20 yards regressed as well going from 19th in 2013 to 150th in 2013-2014.
If a player cannot find greens and cannot save pars when they miss greens, it’s a recipe for disaster. Furthermore, he gained a large portion of his strokes on the green from his putting outside 15 feet. That should regress towards the mean in 2014-2015, which means a regression in his total Strokes Gained – Putting metric.
Jones benefited from the favorable schedule last season where he was playing a much higher Purse Size per Event than Strength of Schedule. His Purse Size per Event should still be fairly high coming off the victory at Houston, but the strength of schedule should get more difficult as well and he will have a more difficult time making cuts if he continues to perform at the same rate.
BRENDON TODD
Todd had a fantastic season in 2013-2014. He was an adept putter of the ball that performed well from the Yellow Zone. Typically, good Yellow Zone performers make more birdies regardless of their putting skill. They are hitting the ball closer to the cup on the major of approach shots on the par-4’s and increasing their likelihood of making their putts. However, Todd was more of a grinder as he ranked 21st in Bogey Avoidance while ranking 70th in Birdie Rate. There is a downward trend in performance for players like Todd that fail to make a lot of birdies despite performing well from the Yellow Zone and with the putter.
We can also see Todd’s performance in 2013-2014 from the Red Zone and with the putter. The Red Zone performance declined over time while the Putter caught fire as the season progressed:
For the most part, Todd’s play from the Red Zone regressed significantly. The black slanted line is the ‘trend line’ which shows that Todd’s performance from the Red Zone was on a fairly steep decline. Meanwhile, his putting caught fire outside of the stretch of four events towards the end of his career. The past data of players that regress with their Red Zone play and catch fire with the putter is to regress significantly in the following season.
Todd will be exempt from every event this season outside of the Accenture Match Play. That will provide him a very favorable schedule where he is playing in large purse events and that should be enough for him to stay well within the top-125 on the Money List, but the trend shows that his Adjusted Scoring Average should get significantly worse and could lead to a lackluster season.
ERIK COMPTON
Normally, 80 percent of a Tour player’s earnings come from 20 percent of their events. Compton saw 87.4 percent of his earnings come from 20 percent of his events this past season. When the earnings percentage gets to 90 percent it indicates that the player did not play very well outside of one event which is what happened for Compton at Pinehurst.
The good news for Compton is that he did rank 90th in Adjusted Scoring Average, and he will continue to have a better than average Purse Size per Event as he is exempt from both the U.S. Open and the Masters. His struggles striking the ball and his drop in club head speed by about 2 mph, however, it is right in line with traditional regressions in performance on Tour.
Honorable Mention: K.J. Choi, Matt Every, Russell Henley, Charles Howell III and Scott Stallings
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
peaty
Oct 27, 2014 at 2:24 am
Streb was a very good shout. Are you likely to add comments for the other honourable mentions?Thanks
peaty
Oct 12, 2014 at 4:41 pm
Really interesting analysis, enjoyed it. Can I ask are your Driving Effectiveness stats derived from a personal formula or something we could access/calculate say via the pgatour stats. Also re M Jones – what is the best way to analyse their level of iron play off fairway/tee if once again looking at say stats on pgatour? Thanks.
ur mom
Oct 19, 2014 at 5:02 pm
uuuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrrrrrrmom
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paul
Oct 8, 2014 at 6:54 pm
I would like to hear about how aim point users see big performance gains after using it for a while…. As I am also considering taking up aim point.
Hellstorm
Oct 8, 2014 at 8:48 pm
I have thought about it too. There was a clinic about an hour from my house in August but I didn’t make it out. I will hit it up next year for sure.
Richie Hunt
Oct 9, 2014 at 10:49 am
Using the Strokes Gained – Putting metric, the majority of AimPoint users that stick with it have seen a big improvement in that metric after using it for 3-12 months. Scott McCarron was the first Tour player to use it and went from being in the top-1/3rd in putting to being in the top-10th percentile. Bo Van Pelt went from being an average to below average putter to ranking 11th in Strokes Gained – Putting after about a year. Daniel Summerhays went from being a below average putter to ranking in the top half after 6 months and then climbing to 9th in Putts Gained after a year of using AimPoint. Those are just a few examples.
RobG
Oct 8, 2014 at 4:56 pm
Driving Effectiveness is the combination of Distance + Percentage of Fairways Hit + Distance to the edge of the fairway, correct? Does this stat apply to when a player hits only driver or does this stat take into account the tee shot (regardless of club selection) on every par 4 and par 5?
Richie Hunt
Oct 8, 2014 at 5:34 pm
It’s on every shot regardless of what they hit off the tee.
nick hanson
Oct 8, 2014 at 2:14 pm
Hey Rich and Golfwrx. I think you did this last year. I’d love to see a comparison of the prior year’s results and where they came out.
Nick
Zak Kozuchowski
Oct 8, 2014 at 2:21 pm
You can read last year’s list here: http://www.golfwrx.com/163945/pga-tour-players-who-will-rise-and-fall-in-2014/
Rich Hunt
Oct 8, 2014 at 2:33 pm
Yes, I did this last year as Zak showed in the link.
Charles Howell finished 45th in earnings while making 24 out of 29 cuts. His driving effectiveness improved to 111th.
Matt Jones got his first victory and John Senden got his first victory on the PGA Tour since 2006.
John Merrick finished 145th on the Money List, Derek Ernst 170th. Mahan’s Adjusted Scoring Average fell to 50th and he didn’t win until the playoffs. I already talked about Blixt and the big miss for me was on Stroud who finished 53rd in earnings and 44th in Adjusted Scoring Average. Josh Teater was the big miss on the players I had improving as he finished 137th in Adjusted Scoring Average.
However, on my board I did have Brian Harman improving and he got his first win and finished and finished 34th in Earnings.
Edub
Oct 8, 2014 at 5:00 pm
Seems like you’re picking the numbers that worked for you last year Rich. I’d say Hunter had a pretty decent year all in all. Predicting an individuals performance a year ahead is a wast of time. The players make the numbers, not the numbers make the player… I know, it’s tough for a statistician to comprehend.
Edub
Oct 8, 2014 at 5:05 pm
Almost forgot… you lead with Colsaerts last year, his 2014 was worse than 2013. Great pick on that one.
Richie Hunt
Oct 8, 2014 at 5:39 pm
I don’t expect to roll 6’s each time. Colsaerts hardly played that much in 2013-2014 because of an injury and I can’t predict injuries.
Teater and Stroud were clear misses which I mentioned before. But hitting on Jones, Senden, Merrick, Blixt and pushing on Howell (who still had a nice year) isn’t bad. I would probably label Hunter Mahan’s performance as a push as well as he did win, but it was one of his weaker seasons in recent memory.