Tour News

Why J.B. Holmes laid up (and why he’d do it again)

Published

11 years ago

Feb 9, 2015

Tied for the lead, J.B. Holmes piped his drive 300 yards down the fairway of the 570-yard par-5 18th hole during yesterday’s final round of the Farmers Insurance Open.

With just more than 230 yards to the pin, you probably thought last year’s fourth-longest driver on tour would go for the green in two.

He didn’t.

Instead, Holmes laid up, leaving himself a 76-yard wedge shot to the front pin location, which he’d have to hit just right, landing his ball beyond the flag with enough spin to trickle back toward the cup. Anything short of the mark would likely spin back into the Tin Cup hazard in front of the green.

Holmes didn’t get the strike he wanted. His wedge carried a little long and a little left: it didn’t trickle back toward the hole, and he was left with a 21-foot putt for birdie.

So, why did one of the longest hitters in the history of the PGA Tour choose to lay up? Here’s his explanation from after the round.

Q. Did you think about going for it at all?

J.B. HOLMES: I thought about it, but it was on a, if it would have been five yards shorter or three or four yards longer, it was really on a downslope to the hole and it was just a lie that my tendency is to hit it a little bit further and hit a draw and long and left is dead.

If you hit something over the green there, it’s not really an easy up-and-down. It’s not really the best access to the pin. The best lay up is to lay up and hit a wedge. I had the same thing again, I would lay up. I had the wind and that and you can’t ask for much more than that.

Q. Run through how you played 18 in regulation and the playoff and what your thought went into how you played all the shots.

J.B. HOLMES: Yeah, I played them all correctly for me. My wedge shot on regulation just didn’t really come back. I thought that ball would come back a little bit.

Who knows where Holmes would have ended up if he had gone for the green in two. Odds are, however, that unless he wound up in the water hazard short of the green, he would have been putting from closer than 21 feet, 3 inches with his fourth.

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Ben Alberstadt

Ben Alberstadt is the Editor-in-Chief at GolfWRX, where he’s led editorial direction and gear coverage since 2018. He first joined the site as a freelance writer in 2012 after years spent working in pro shops and bag rooms at both public and private golf courses, experiences that laid the foundation for his deep knowledge of equipment and all facets of this maddening game. Based in Philadelphia, Ben’s byline has also appeared on PGATour.com, Bleacher Report...and across numerous PGA DFS and fantasy golf platforms. Off the course, Ben is a committed cat rescuer and, of course, a passionate Philadelphia sports fan. Follow him on Instagram @benalberstadt.

22 Comments

Hudson

Feb 12, 2015 at 4:39 pm

He could have won by laying up further as the strokes gained calculation shows the following:

The shots on the 18th (real situation):

570 Tee = 0.35 stroke gained
235 Fairway = -0.32 stroke lost (the cost of this lay-up !)
75 Fairway -0.11 = stroke lost
19ft Green -0.15 = stroke lost
1ft Green 0 = nothing lost/gained

Total of strokes lost = -0.23 in reality

“Ideal” scenario: laying up around 25 yards to hope for a 5 feet putt and win (!):

570y Tee = 0.35 stroke gained
235y Fairway = -0.03 stroke lost
25y Fairway = 0.22 stroke gained (assuming this player can approach the ball to 5ft and hole it)
5ft Green = 0.23 stroke gained

Total of strokes gained = 0.77 on the “ideal” scenario

The difference between the real shots and the “ideal” scenario is 1 stroke (-0.23-0.77) and a victory !!!

This is real mathematics ;-)))))))))

See how I track the strokes gained now and knows when to lay-up or not:
http://golf-made-in-us.blogspot.com/2015/02/profiling-your-golf-game-time-to-shoot.html

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James W

Feb 11, 2015 at 9:50 am

If he would have went for it and dunked it into the water or put himself in position to lose on the 18th, our thoughts would have been, “I can’t believe he just threw an interception and didn’t hand the ball off when they were on the 1 yard line with one the best short yardage running backs in the league with 3 downs and 1 timeout left….” Oops, wrong sport…but same situation?

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patricknorm

Feb 10, 2015 at 1:51 pm

If you remember the sequence of events on the 18th, during the first playoff Jason Day played an iron on his second shot and fortunately went right of the green and probably would not have made the green given the wind conditions. For Holmes trying to win but more importantly, not trying to lose the tournament he made the rational choice.
Holmes was clear that going long behind the green (on 18) was not an option because it,s a tough up and down.
On the second playoff hole on the par three, Holmes airmailed the green and proved what a tough up and down it was. It cost him the tournament. Jason Day was clearly the better iron player that day.

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T-MAC

Feb 10, 2015 at 9:23 am

Wind was in his face, and after seeing his playing partner come up short that seemed to influence his decision. I don’t know if JB had a 5-wood in his bag. Announcers said his longest iron was a 3 iron and perhaps he didn’t think he could get there into the wind.
I would have liked to see him hit his 3-wood. Just hit something that you know will get you over the water. I don’t care if it goes into the stands behind the green. You get a drop and chipping it from there would have been easier than trying to throw it past the pin and spinning it back (without spinning it into the water) from 80 yards.

Reply Report comment
- Carlos Danger
  
  Feb 12, 2015 at 3:03 pm
  
  Disagree (respectfully) with your logic on hitting 3 wood and just trying to get it over the green opposed to hitting a wedge into a uphill green and backing it up. If there is one thing every pro is good and should be good at, its hitting wedges into up hill greens and spinning them back. I dont care who you are, trying to hit a delicate shot out of TP’s ruff down hill with water at the bottom is not ideal.
  
  Also, his comment about the downhill lie was all I needed to hear. Hitting any type of fairway/hybrid off of a downhill lie is a daunting task, especially when you need to clear a pond 235 and the tournament is literally won or lost on that shot.
  
  He did the right thing on that hole
  
  Reply Report comment
Nickeynumbers

Feb 9, 2015 at 10:25 pm

How far to carry? downhill lie? with his power easy decision to go for it put ball back in stance a bit and if miss bail out to the right and/or short then chip or pitch to 10′ or less. What iron would he have used? 5 iron? 4 iron?

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random dude

Feb 9, 2015 at 8:01 pm

Big T2 for RIFE putters

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Andrew Cooper

Feb 9, 2015 at 3:47 pm

300 yard drive, 230 yards to pin- a 570 yard hole?

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- steve
  
  Feb 9, 2015 at 8:05 pm
  
  not all golf holes are straight. and are not measure straight from tee box to the pin. also you can cut the hole by going over the trees and of course 300 yards could been a carry distance. play much golf??
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Andy B
    
    Feb 9, 2015 at 10:19 pm
    
    While yes, not all holes are straight, the 18th at Torrey Pines is a straight tee shot and straight approach. The yardage displayed on television coverage is typically from the back tees or furthest point the tournament will play it all week. The tournament moves the tee’s on many holes each day to present different shots and strategies. It was probably moves forward Sunday to allow for more drama, such as players being in the go or no go range and having to make that tough decision. In my opinion the 18th was set up perfect for Sunday.
    
    Reply Report comment
  - Andrew Cooper
    
    Feb 10, 2015 at 8:10 am
    
    It’s a very slight left to right dogleg so tees were up I reckon.
    
    Reply Report comment
- leo
  
  Feb 10, 2015 at 2:46 am
  
  many holes,especially par 5’s are not played at the stated length
  
  Reply Report comment
marcel

Feb 9, 2015 at 3:46 pm

Holmes played the highest percentage golf. Day played just bit better

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marcel

Feb 9, 2015 at 3:44 pm

really silly assumption “if he”… this is not about “no guts no glory” it all about playing the right shots… no such thing as laying up… 18 is not really friendly for “green in 2” – Holmes played the highest percentage golf… J Day played just bit better

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Steve

Feb 9, 2015 at 2:27 pm

No guts, no glory.

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Old putt

Feb 9, 2015 at 12:58 pm

Big hitter doesn’t take the chance maybe he listened to old TV broadcasts constantly talking about the smart play seemingly always the lay up. Announcers not so prone to that anymore. The only thing that counts is the result.

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Albiemanmike

Feb 9, 2015 at 12:48 pm

Why would you even question the guy he told you he was confident playing his normal shot to the green in two on that hole in that circumstance. Odds are he knows his game better than you do and if he had gone against his gut feeling he would have been long and left and dead. He played the percentage shot and just didn’t hit a very good shot. Odds are the majority of the time the guy would have hit it pretty stiff and been looking at a reasonable putt for birdie.

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Jason

Feb 9, 2015 at 12:32 pm

Jay–the odds probably go right out the window when you’re standing the 72nd hole of a PGA tourney. I wish he had went for it. The famous line from Tin Cup, “240 to carry and the tour star is laying up.”

Reply Report comment
Jay

Feb 9, 2015 at 12:12 pm

“Odds are…..he would have been putting from closer than 21 feet, 3 inches with his fourth.” What odds? 27%? 51%? 72%? How did you compute those odds? What are JB Holmes stats for hitting greens from 230 yards? What was avg proximity to pin after being long/left at 18?

Reply Report comment
blake

Feb 9, 2015 at 11:31 am

Great to see JB back in the thick of it after brain surgery! Hope he can compete in a major this year.

Reply Report comment
Tom

Feb 9, 2015 at 11:28 am

Never a good thing to hit a shot with doubts and sounds like he had them if he would have tried for it.

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Jonny B

Feb 9, 2015 at 10:40 am

Glad to see JB back in the thick of things the past couple seasons. Good for him and good for golf. I like his “no regrets” approach, he made a decision and he is sticking by it. Kudos.

Reply Report comment

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