Instruction
The truth behind greens in regulation and scoring
Have you heard teaching professionals say that the best way to cut five strokes from your average score is to practice your short game? On the surface, this sounds logical, but believe it or not, this is virtually impossible for those who can play bogey golf or better.
Analytics are in vogue in all sports, and golf is no exception. Statistical studies have shown that your average score is so closely tied to your average number of greens in regulation that this statistic alone will almost always predict what someone’s average score is in the long run, as the following chart indicates (par-72 course):
Note that these are long-run averages, 20 or more rounds. Of course, there will be days when someone might hit 15 greens and shoot 80, or five greens and shoot under par, but over the course of 20 or more rounds, this chart will be accurate for virtually every golfer.
Jim Furyk hits 72.92 percent of GIR, which leads the PGA Tour in 2015.
But…let’s go back to the oft-stated premise that someone can cut five strokes from his average score through a better short game. Let’s use the example of the typical 85-shooter who averages five GIR. Assuming he averages par on all five holes where he hits the green in regulation, that makes him 13 over on the 13 holes where he misses the green. Now, that doesn’t mean this golfer will bogey all 13 holes. More likely, he will get up-and-down three times and go 6-over on three holes. To cut five strokes through the short game alone, he would have to get up and down eight times out of 13. That’s 61.5 percent.
Sounds doable, right? However, that 61.5 percent would have placed this golfer 26th in scrambling on the 2013-14 PGA Tour. Granted, it’s surely more difficult to get up-and-down on Tour greens, but still, can you expect a 13-handicapper to have this kind of percentage? No. The fact is, golf skill is relatively similar throughout the bag. In other words, a 13-handicapper will have about a 13-handicap short game, give or take a couple of strokes. He will not have a scratch-level short game on a daily basis.
To cut five strokes off of someone’s average score, he will almost certainly have to average two more GIR per round. While it is possible to cut four strokes through short game alone (according to the chart), this assumes the golfer is among the worst at the short game for his ballstriking ability and then becomes among the best.
In conclusion, if you average at the high end of the chart for scoring average and want to cut a couple of strokes, you can indeed do it through the short game. But if you are already scoring as well as you can for your GIR numbers, the only way to lower your average score is to hit more greens. If that’s you, you either need to get some lessons or, in the words of Ben Hogan to Gary Player regarding practice, “Double it!”
The LPGA Tour is kicking off its 2026 season this week at Lake Nona Golf and Country Club in Orlando, and the pros are dealing with something most Florida golfers rarely face: freezing temperatures.
“It’s colder here than in the UK at the minute, which is a first,” said England’s Charley Hull during Wednesday’s media day at the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions.
Even Lydia Ko, who lives at Lake Nona, seemed surprised by the cold snap. “We’re pretty much getting to below zero in celsius here, which maybe in other parts of the country they would be thankful, but when you’re in Florida it is a little bit of a surprise,” she said.
If the world’s best players are adjusting their games for cold weather, recreational golfers should, too. Here’s how to play smart when the mercury drops.
Understand What Cold Does to Your Game
Before you change anything, you need to know what you’re fighting against. Cold air is denser than warm air, which means your ball won’t fly as far. Period.
Hull noticed this immediately during practice rounds at Lake Nona. She mentioned hitting a gap wedge into the 18th hole during a previous win but needing a 4-iron during Tuesday’s practice round. That’s a difference of four or five clubs for the same shot.
Action item: Expect to lose 5-10 yards on every club in your bag when temperatures dip below 50 degrees. Plan accordingly and don’t be stubborn about club selection.
Layer Up Without Restricting Your Swing
Hull admitted she wore three pairs of pants during practice. While that might be extreme for most of us, staying warm is critical to playing well in cold conditions.
Your muscles need warmth to function properly. When you’re cold, your body tightens up and your swing gets shorter and faster. Neither of those things help you hit good golf shots.
Action item: Wear multiple thin layers instead of one bulky jacket. Look for golf-specific cold weather gear that stretches with your swing. Keep hand warmers in your pockets between shots. And don’t forget a good hat because you lose significant body heat through your head.
Take More Club Than You Think You Need
This is where ego gets in the way of good scores. When it’s cold, the ball doesn’t compress as well off the clubface. Combined with denser air, you’re looking at serious distance loss.
The pros at Lake Nona are dealing with a course that measures 6,642 yards but plays much longer this week. If they’re adjusting, you should too.
Action item: Take at least one extra club on every approach shot. In temperatures below 40 degrees, consider taking two extra clubs. It’s better to fly the ball to the back of the green than to come up short in a bunker.
Adjust Your Expectations on the Greens
Cold weather affects putting in ways most golfers don’t consider. The ball is harder and doesn’t roll as smoothly. Your hands are cold, making it harder to feel the putter. And if there’s any moisture on the greens, they’ll be slower than normal.
Ko mentioned that she still sometimes reads the greens wrong at Lake Nona despite being a member for years. Cold weather makes that challenge even tougher.
Action item: Hit putts more firmly than usual. The ball needs extra speed to hold its line on cold greens. Take a few extra practice strokes to get a feel for the speed before you putt.
Embrace the Mental Challenge
Hull said something interesting about cold weather golf: “I like the mental toughness of it.”
That’s the right attitude. Everyone on the course is dealing with the same conditions. The player who stays patient and doesn’t get frustrated by the extra difficulty will come out ahead.
Action item: Lower your expectations by a few strokes. If you normally shoot 85, accept that 90 might be a good score in 40-degree weather. Focus on solid contact and smart decisions rather than perfect shots.
Warm Up Longer and Smarter
This might be the most important tip of all. Cold muscles are tight muscles, and tight muscles get injured easily.
World No. 1 Jeeno Thitikul revealed she’s been protecting a wrist injury that bothered her late last season. Cold weather makes those kinds of injuries more likely if you don’t prepare properly.
Action item: Spend at least 20 minutes warming up before your round. Start with stretching, then hit easy wedge shots before working up to your driver. Keep moving between shots on the course to maintain body heat and flexibility.
The pros at Lake Nona this week will adapt and compete at the highest level despite the cold. You can do the same at your local course by following these tips and keeping a positive attitude.
PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. Also, check out “Playing Through” now on R.org, RG.org’s partner site, each Monday.
Editor’s note: Brendon shares his nearly 30 years of experience in the game with GolfWRX readers through his ongoing tip series. He looks forward to providing valuable insights and advice to help golfers improve their game. Stay tuned for more tips!
Brooks Koepka is back on the PGA Tour, and whether you love him or hate him, the guy knows how to win when it matters. After his LIV Golf stint, the five-time major champion returns this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.
What makes Koepka fascinating? He doesn’t fit the mold. His swing isn’t textbook. He doesn’t obsess over mechanics. Yet he’s won three PGA Championships and two U.S. Opens, regularly making it look easier than guys with prettier swings.
So, what can average golfers learn from someone who treats the game so differently? Quite a bit.
Stop Overthinking Every Shot
Koepka describes his approach as “reactionary” rather than mechanical. While most tour pros grind over swing thoughts, Brooks sees the target and hits it. No mental checklist.
This might be the most valuable lesson for weekend golfers who’ve watched too many YouTube swing videos.
How to actually do this:
On the range, hit five balls where you stare at the target for three seconds prior to addressing the ball. Don’t think about grip or stance. Just burn that target into your brain. You’ll be shocked at how pure you hit it when your brain focuses on where the ball is going instead of how you’re swinging.
Next time you play, give yourself a rule: Once you pull the club, you’ve got 15 seconds to hit. Koepka is one of the fastest players on tour because he doesn’t give his brain time to sabotage him.
If you feel tension in your hands at address, you’re trying to control too much. Koepka’s grip pressure is famously light. Loosen up until the club almost feels like it might slip, then add just enough pressure to hold on. That’s your swing thought: soft hands, see the target.
This approach works better under pressure. When you’re standing over that shot with water left and OB right, the last thing you need is a mental checklist. See it, feel it, hit it.
Play to Your Strengths (Even If They’re Not Pretty)
Koepka uses a strong grip that wouldn’t pass muster in some teaching circles. But he’s built his game around what works for him, elite driving distance and recovery skills. He doesn’t try to be someone he’s not.
Here’s how to build your game like Brooks:
Look at your last five rounds and figure out where you’re actually gaining strokes. Bombing it off the tee, but can’t hit greens? Lean into it. Play courses where distance matters more than precision. On tight holes, grip down on your 3-wood instead of trying to thread a driver through a keyhole you’ll miss seven times out of ten.
Koepka knows he can scramble, so he’s not afraid to miss greens. If you’re deadly from 50 to 75 yards, start leaving yourself those distances on the par 5’s instead of going for them in two every time.
Know when to take your medicine. Koepka in the trees at the PGA? He’s punching out to 100 yards, not trying to bend a 6-iron around three oaks. You’re in the rough with a flyer lie and water short? Hit your 8-iron to the middle and move on. That’s not playing scared, that’s playing smart.
Save Your Best for When It Counts
Here’s a wild stat: Koepka’s putting average in majors is often more than a full stroke better per round than in regular events. He elevates when pressure is highest.
How does an amateur tap into that gear? It’s not about trying harder, it’s about caring differently.
Here’s what actually works:
Decide which rounds matter to you. Club championship? Member-guest? That annual trip with college buddies? Circle those dates and treat them differently. Koepka doesn’t care much about regular tour events, but majors? That’s when he locks in.
Two weeks before your big round, change your practice. Stop beating balls mindlessly. Play nine holes in which every shot has consequences. Miss the fairway? Hit from the rough on the next hole too. Three-putt? Twenty push-ups. Koepka’s practice intensity ramps up before majors because he’s rehearsing pressure, not just swings.
Develop a between-shot routine that resets your brain. Koepka is famous for his blank expression after bad shots. Try this: After any shot, take three deep breaths while walking, then find something specific to notice, a tree, a cloud, someone’s shirt. That’s your reset button. By the time you reach your ball, the last shot is gone.
The Bottom Line
Brooks Koepka’s return reminds us there’s no single path to success in golf. His “substance over style” approach proves that results matter more than looking good.
You don’t need a perfect swing; you need a reliable one that holds up under pressure. You don’t need to hit every shot in the book; you need the shots you can count on. And you don’t need to play great every time; you need to play great when it matters.
Welcome back, Brooks. Thanks for the reminder that golf is ultimately about getting the ball in the hole, not winning style points.
PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. Also, check out “Playing Through” now on R.org, RG.org’s partner site, each Monday.
Editor’s note: Brendon shares his nearly 30 years of experience in the game with GolfWRX readers through his ongoing tip series. He looks forward to providing valuable insights and advice to help golfers improve their game. Stay tuned for more tips!
Blades Brown made a big impression last week in the California desert, and not just because he’s only 18. He put up numbers that would catch any weekend golfer’s attention. Most of us won’t hit 317-yard drives or find 86% of our greens in regulation, but there’s a lot to learn from how Brown managed his game at The American Express.
Here are three practical lessons from his performance that you can use on your own course this weekend.
Step 1: Give Priority to Accuracy Over Distance Off The Tee
Brown’s driving stats are impressive. He averaged almost 318 yards off the tee, ranking 12th in the field. More importantly, he hit 76.79% of his fairways, tying for fourth place in the tournament.
Think about that ratio for a second. Brown could have swung harder, chased more distance and tried to overpower the course. Instead, he played smart golf and kept his ball in play.
Your Action Item: Next time you’re on the tee box, ask yourself a simple question before pulling the driver. Do you need maximum distance here, or do you need to be in the fairway? If there’s trouble lurking or the hole doesn’t demand every yard you can muster, take something off your swing. Grip down an inch. Make a three-quarter swing. Do whatever it takes to find the short grass. Brown’s approach illustrates that fairways lead to greens, and greens lead to birdies. He made 22 of them last week, along with an eagle.
The math is simple. When you’re hitting three out of every four fairways like Brown did, you’re giving yourself legitimate looks at the green with your approach shots. That’s when scoring happens.
Step 2: Commit To Hitting More Greens
This is where Brown really separated himself. He hit 62 of 72 greens in regulation, an 86.11% clip that tied for first in the entire field. Read that again. An 18-year-old kid tied for the lead in one of the most important ball-striking statistics in professional golf.
How did he do it? By keeping his ball in the fairway (see Step 1) and giving himself clean looks with mid-irons and wedges.
Your Action Item: Start tracking your greens in regulation. You don’t need a fancy app or a statistics degree. Just mark down whether you hit the green in the regulation number of strokes. Par 3s in one shot. Par 4s in two shots. Par 5s in three shots.
Once you know your baseline, set a goal to improve it by 10%. If you’re currently hitting five greens per round, aim for six. The beauty of this approach is that it forces you to think strategically about club selection and shot shape. Brown’s strokes gained approach number was positive (0.179), meaning he was better than the field average. You don’t need to be perfect. You just need to be on the dance floor more often.
When you hit more greens, you eliminate the need for heroic short game shots. Brown only had to scramble 10 times all week, and he got up and down 70% of the time. That’s solid, but the real story is that he rarely put himself in scrambling situations to begin with.
Step 3: Minimize Mistakes And Stay Patient
Here’s the stat that jumps off the page: Brown made only three bogeys all week. Three. In four rounds of professional golf against the best players in the world.
He also made just one double bogey. That kind of clean card doesn’t happen by accident. It happens when you play within yourself, avoid the big miss and trust that pars are never bad scores.
Your Action Item: Before your next round, decide that you’re going to play boring golf. No hero shots over water. No driver on tight holes just because you can. No aggressive pins when there’s a safe side of the green.
Brown’s performance shows us that consistency beats flash every single time. He didn’t lead the field in any single strokes gained category, but he was solid across the board. That’s how you post numbers and cash checks.
Give these three steps a try. Your scorecard will thank you.
PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. Also, check out “The Starter” now on R.org, RG.org’s partner site, each Monday.
Editor’s note: Brendon shares his nearly 30 years of experience in the game with GolfWRX readers through his ongoing tip series. He looks forward to providing valuable insights and advice to help golfers improve their game. Stay tuned for more tips!
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Aventurine Bracelet
Jun 16, 2018 at 2:27 am
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Jim
Apr 11, 2016 at 7:16 am
Great article, spot on, I will definately be using this article and the score formulas posted to ID what I should be practicing. Avg GIR is just an approximation of avg proximity, the more samples the more closely GIR will match proximity. Keep in mind that as average GIR goes up, so will the average proximity of all of your other approach shots that missed the green, so your average scramble % will go up as well…further improving your score, I’m pretty sure over all length goes up as well with GIR. Having played with a lot of folks over the years who I would call “short game experts”, I noticed that they tend to gravitate towards golf courses that don’t have a lot of bunkers, nor elevated greens, etc. courses that reward their skills more frequently. Not playing a wide distribution of course types could contribute to the GIR formulas not working for some short game experts.
david
Mar 10, 2016 at 12:27 pm
Here’s the question I have regarding the GIR stats and scores: what are the yardages played from? 6000 or 6600? Big difference. I play to under 3 index, averaged 79 this year after 75 rounds with average GIR at 10. I also averaged 1 double bogey per round. My average tee deck was 6600. When I play at 6200 yards I usually score 74 no problem. Then of course there are course slopes, which I never hear placed as a factor of GIR’s and score. I would like to see these factors accounted for.
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Jeff
Mar 28, 2015 at 2:40 pm
I applied Riccio’s revised formula to all of my rounds the past two years and it was accurate almost 90% of the time. Unfortunately, when it wasn’t it was normally because I was worse due to penalty shots, than better because of some fortunate play.
ron
Mar 26, 2015 at 3:26 pm
This is gold! Site moderators… we need a way to “bookmark” articles as a signed in user. If there is already such a feature I havent found it yet.
Matto
Mar 25, 2015 at 6:32 pm
Christ, this just actually makes me feel like crap! BUT….its made me take notice of my GIR & average putts etc. And it’s blatantly obvious what my problem is…. Here’s an example of my form and my most recent round a couple of days ago -I drive quite well, I hit a great 315m (347y) drive midway through the round. I have a pretty sound game from under 100, so– FIR; 9/14 (all missed fairways were perfectly playable)
GIR; 10. Score 84. Putts; 40!!!!!!
If I could putt, maybe even just get it down to 33-35, not too much too ask (?!) I could consistently break 80 (I’ve done it once in 30 years)
I’m off to the practise green!
myron miller
Mar 23, 2015 at 12:42 pm
I have the same problem with this statistic as the one on Fairways hit. Its been shown that that one is not really correct. If i’m 2 inches off the green on the fringe, that’s considered a green missed. Yet I could only be 5 feet from the pin. And if i hit the green and am 80 feet away with an impossible putt that’s considered a hit green. Yet it certainly is easier to get up and down from 5 feet than 80 feet.
In addition, if I’m 3-10 yards short of the green in the fairway run-up to the green, Its really not that much harder to get up and down from there than just barely on the green. And especially those cases where the ball is touching the fringe. Any ball on the green and just touching the fringe is proven to be harder to putt than being off the green 4 feet further.
I fully concur with M. Smizzles distance from flag is about as important as gir in scoring.
Being a senior and having lost my WRX driving distance, I’ve had to develop a good short game. I do keep track of GIR, but I also keep track of up’s and downs from inside 10-20 yards as well. And I’ve found that generally my GIR doesn’t track well with my scores, but as my up/down percentage goes up, so my scores drop drastically. And even when I play shorter tees, my GIRs average doesn’t improve that much. But the shorter tees do help my up/down percentage as I’m playing more shots within 5-10 yards of the green and quite often directly in front in the fairway fringe in the front of the green (my second shots may not be able to reach the green but I can put them within 10 yards in the front and that’s a pretty easy chip or putt to get up and down usually. Getting Bunkers up and down is of course much tougher, but if many of your misses are on the fringe or just barely in the rough, then your GIR will be low, but you can still score pretty well if you’ve spent time working on those shots.
Short story, Years ago, I lived in the mountains of Idaho (mile high). Being young and stupid, I was able to hit the ball the typical WRXers mile (lots of times well over 300 and sometimes 350. Elevation does help a lot. I used to play with 3 guys that were between 68 and 73 every week. I’d average over 300 yards driving distance. They hit it 175-200 down the fairway. They’d be slightly short on most holes, but got up and down remarkably well and generally shot high 60s and low 70s. I shot upper 70s and mid 80s because I had no real good short game (lousy if I missed green). That taught me that Chipping and pitching were way more important than people thought.
My GIR % is not significantly better today but I shoot lower scores because my recovery % is much much higher.
Remember Tiger in his heyday didn’t necessarily hit the most greens but was all-universe in getting up and down (not today but that’s something else).
Jeremy
Mar 23, 2015 at 2:41 pm
It’s just about averages. For every time you’re on the green with an 80-foot putt, you’re 5 yards from the pin in deep rough against the grain chipping downhill. In the long run those little outliers should average out. You may still be an anomaly, judging from the numbers in your earlier post. Maybe you play on links courses where being near the green is practically the same as being on it?
Jonny B
Mar 23, 2015 at 8:03 am
Works for me. I can say having tracked GIR over the past two seasons and focusing the majority of my practice on iron play that I agree with the sentiments of this article. My average GIR has gone from 5.2 to 6.7 in one season, and my average score has gone from 86 to 82. Now I just need to make more putts! Average 32.4 right now.
Jeremy
Mar 22, 2015 at 3:59 pm
Good article Mark. Question for you and the group: if, over the last 20 rounds, I’m at 7.2 GIR but at the higher end of the score (83.1) what am I doing wrong? According to the charts and formulas I could/should be more around the 79-80 area. You say I can’t shave 5 strokes off, but a 4-stroke gap in the average score isn’t insignificant, and I’d rather be at the lower end of it.
I’m thinking that, since my scores are at the low end for someone who only hits 5 greens in a round, perhaps I’m wasting those extra 2 GIR with bad putting (is 32.4 bad?). Or maybe it’s penalties from inconsistent tee shots.
Mark Harman
Mar 23, 2015 at 11:19 am
Hi Jeremy,
For 7.2 GIR, your high end scoring average would be 82.6, so you’re not too far off that. Since you’re at the high end of the scoring average, it seems your short game and/or putting could be improved for your skill level. It most definitely is possible for you to improve 2 or 3, and maybe even 4 shots per round purely through short game/putting. The point of the article is that for most people, improving 5 shots through short game alone is very difficult, if not downright impossible.
Jeremy
Mar 23, 2015 at 2:17 pm
Thanks for the reply Mark. I went back over my stats and I think it’s actually the long game that gets me in trouble. Threw out a couple of high outlier scores and just looked at my 10 best (the ones used for HCP). Average putts are 31.6, which is good. GIR goes up to almost 8/round, and the avg score is 80.2. Then I saw that I’m averaging a little over 2 penalty strokes per round, so my What If score is 77.7 — right there in the wheelhouse of what your charts say.
Short game feels pretty good. Just gotta stop blasting it OB I guess, and start hitting more greens.
zoots
Mar 22, 2015 at 12:42 pm
What’s more doable for the average golfer: (a) Hitting irons like Henrik Stenson or (b) putting and chipping like Luke Donald?
Answer: Practice your short game.
bobbyd
Mar 21, 2015 at 7:56 pm
I think you are picking an extreme. Typically it’s pretty hard to be on a green 26.6 yards away from the hole. what about the times you are short sided ten or so paces with 5 feet of green running away from you? bogey becomes a good number. The math this article provides is accurate. Tour average G.I.R. is around 66% or 12 g.i.r.s per round. Once you get to the point where you can hit around 10 greens a round you’ve probably developed a pretty ok short game as well. (or so i’d hope)
4pillars
Mar 21, 2015 at 10:05 am
This is easily the worst article I have read in Golfwrx, even Barney Adams is nit as bad
Statistical studies have shown
Whose statistics?
Measuring whom?
Over what period?
Looks like the United States Golf Teachers Federation is even worst than the PGA
Anon
Mar 22, 2015 at 5:11 am
I agree with you.
patricknorm
Mar 22, 2015 at 10:43 am
Re read the article and don’t confuse causation with correlation. Think minimum 20 rounds not just one round. In fact, think 50 rounds and the article will make sense. If you are say a 5 handicap or lower I should not have to explain this concept. If you are a 18 handicap and play 10 rounds a season then, I understand your lack of understanding. We are talking anaylytics not anecdotes here.
Mark Harman
Mar 23, 2015 at 11:15 am
Hi 4pillars,
The information comes from two studies: one that was conducted by a researcher in the 1980s (his name escapes me, but I used the information for years and had the chart written down and also memorized), and also through I study I personally conducted through the statistics collected by the Gulf Coast Scratch Tour (now the Miller Lite Scratch Tour) in the Florida Panhandle about 10 years ago. For the Scratch Tour study, I used only golfers who had played 12 rounds or more. Out of the 56 golfers who had played at least 12 rounds, 54 had their scoring average fall within the parameters listed in the chart. So the information is well-researched and valid. If you also apply the statistics to the PGA Tour, you will find EVERY PLAYER also falls into these parameters, too. So I hope that answers your criticisms, and if you keep statistics for your own game, I’m sure you will find it to be accurate, as well.
Andrew Cooper
Mar 21, 2015 at 6:04 am
Improving a short game is often the easiest way to reduce scores however. A lot of regular golfers simply are not physically capable (without a new gym regime or reversing the ageing process) of producing enough power to hit 400 yard+ 4s or 200y+ 3s in regulation. A decent short game doesn’t require the same basic strength. If a recreational golfer develops a reliable chip shot, a pitch, and bunker shot (and that means nothing more fancy than eliminating the chunks and skulls) then their scores will improve fast.
JSmith
Mar 20, 2015 at 2:12 pm
This lends credence to Earl’s wisdom to Tiger that if you hit 12 GIR, you should shoot even par or better.
duffer888
Mar 20, 2015 at 1:45 pm
Great article and what I’ve believed and charted for my game all along. Assuming I’m not 3-jacking every hole, more GIR means lower scores
juststeve
Mar 20, 2015 at 12:57 pm
This piece makes th4e false assumption that for a poor scrambling 85 shooter the worst penalty for missing a green is to take three shots to get up and down. Not so as this discounts sand shots left in the bunker, chips and pitches bladed over the green and sundry other shots not too uncommon among high handicappers.
Steve
Art
Apr 27, 2015 at 6:22 pm
juststeve, the false assumption seems to be yours. See with averages, many scenarios are captured over time. So along with your pessimistic blow-ups, you also capture chip-ins, and actually getting up-and-down from time to time. Do you really need the article and author to examine every possible stroke permutation to reach an 85 average? Because in the end, it’s still an 85 on the scorecard.
myron miller
Mar 20, 2015 at 12:47 pm
Consider that its not considered a green in regulation if I’m 2″ off the green and only 5 feet from the pin. But is considered one if I’m 80 feet away. This is in the same category as Fairways hit in my opinion.
Last twenty scores average 84.6 – avg greens in reg. 2 – no correlation
Prior twenty scores – complete twenty prior – 80.2, avg greens 3 – again no relation to above table.
I don’t count the number of times I’m just off the green barely into the fringe or just short of the green in front. But maybe I’m atypical as I very extensively practice these types of shots all the time. I expect to get up and down from these. From 25 feet or more, or in bunker or other bad situation, not really don’t expect that percentage, but even though it counts as a green missed, I see no reason that I can’t get it up and down if I’m on the front fringe say 5 – 10 feet from the edge of the green as if I were 1 inches onto the green. Yet one is a “good” statistical item and the other is “bad”
And I thoroughly do agree with M. Sizzles point. 2 putting from 80-100 or more feet from the pin is not a given for your average 13-20 handicap especially if there is some slope and/or contour to the green whereas if you’re shortsided and on the fringe, it’s much more likely you can two putt from there.
Double Mocha Man
Mar 21, 2015 at 8:53 pm
I utilize BGIR’s. Bigger Greens in Regulation. I give myself an extra 10 feet out from the edge of the green. Generally, unless I have short-sided myself, I can get up and down from 10 feet off the green. So, while I average about 10-11 greens in regulation I average about 14-15 BGIR’s. And I actually think in terms of BGIR’s when I hit my approach shot… and where it should miss.
MasterGeezer
Mar 20, 2015 at 12:45 pm
Yup. For 99% of players, BS-free golf is just transportation shots and lawn bowling with a stick. Even one of the most intense major champions, Ben Hogan, exhorted us to remember it’s a game of leisure.
Steven
Mar 20, 2015 at 11:52 am
Lucius Riccio at Columbia University did the original research on this and has stated it this way.
Riccio’s Rule: Score = 95 – 2 * GIR
Riccio’s Revised Rule: Score = 58 – 4/3 * GIR + Putts
The revised rule is more accurate than the original rule. Riccio claims that it is accurate to within 1 stroke for 80% of rounds on the PGA Tour. Here is his presentation at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference: http://www.scribd.com/doc/209869783/Lucius-Riccio-presentation-2014-MIT-Sloan-Sports-Analytics-Conference#scribd
Joey5Picks
Mar 20, 2015 at 3:45 pm
By that formula, hitting 8 greens and having 32 putts means I shoot 15. Something is off:
58-(4/3*8)+32 = 15
Tom
Mar 20, 2015 at 4:04 pm
I think he meant 58-((4/3)*8)+32= 79 or 58-((4/3)*GIR)+Putts
Travis T
Mar 20, 2015 at 4:18 pm
58-(4/3*)+32=79
4/3=1.33
1.33*8=10.67
58-10.67+32=79.33
Gotta use FOIL.
Steven
Mar 20, 2015 at 7:15 pm
The formula works as written if you follow the standard mathematical order of operations. It could also be written as Score = 58 – (4/3 * GIR) + Putts, but it gives the same answer.
Mark Harman
Mar 23, 2015 at 11:25 am
Hi Steven,
Thanks for the update on the researcher. I remember reading the information back in the 1980s and wrote it down and used it for years. I also confirmed it when I did my own statistical study of the Gulf Coast Scratch Tour in the Florida Panhandle about 10 years ago. Out of 56 players who played at least 12 rounds, 54 fell within the scoring parameters. My study also showed driving distance actually was the least important factor for low scores compared to GIR, driving accuracy, scrambling and total putts, but that’s another issue entirely.
Philip
Mar 20, 2015 at 11:16 am
Uncanny how my scores last season tie very close to this article. I guess I wasn’t wrong in focusing on GIRs.
Joe Peel
Mar 20, 2015 at 2:44 am
An outstanding article. I sent it to the guys I play with and am sure that they will track GIR for the next 20 rounds.
Tom Duckworth
Mar 19, 2015 at 10:01 pm
He hit the nail on the head. I would rather be on the putting surface in regulation than sitting in the grass. A two putt is in play most of the time and three putting once in a while is not going to kill your round. I think more people would end up three putting after messing up a tough flop shot. I would rather have long putts than trying to scramble on every hole.
Frank D
Mar 19, 2015 at 9:56 pm
Where do these stats come from? it seems a little neat and tidy, it’s exactly: score = 95 – 2 * GIR, which i’ve heard elsewhere but never saw the numbers for…
a2
Mar 20, 2015 at 1:34 am
You don’t read, huh? It says, AVERAGE OVER 20 ROUNDS. Duh.
spazo
Mar 19, 2015 at 8:14 pm
i’d argue that the more important metric is proximity to the hole. if you’re close but off the green, it’s likely as easier or perhaps easier to make par as it is to be far and away from the pin but on the green. there are obvious problems (e.g., bunkers often close to the pin but off the green, as are water hazards), but i would much rather have a 15-foot chip than a 50-foot putt.
a2
Mar 20, 2015 at 1:36 am
“15-foot chip than a 50-foot putt.”
that would only make sense if you could have a flat chip from perfect lies every time. What if in your next round all you had were downhill chips from deadly tight lies over a hump or bunker? I know you would prefer to be on the green, then
Alex
Mar 20, 2015 at 11:31 am
Proximity to the hole is likely the better metric. Sure, sometimes the 15ft chip will be harder than the 50ft putt, but you will also have more birdie chances and less three putts.
The holy grail of stats right now, Strokes gained, is closely tied with proximity to the hole. For amateur’s GIR is far easier to track and likely is closely correlated with proximity to the hole, so it’s a good proxy.
chris franklin
Mar 20, 2015 at 5:12 pm
Most greens are like a man’s torso
The greens aren’t flat either
Jhick
Mar 19, 2015 at 6:21 pm
I would say that being on the green 80ft away is much better than short sided in rough. Putting long distance is much easier/more reliable than trying to get a chip up high and stop fast.
The dude
Mar 19, 2015 at 7:25 pm
At what distance would you not take that bet?
Art
Apr 27, 2015 at 6:33 pm
M, you golf with some interesting golfers–chances are they can’t get the ball inside 20ft on a 50ft putt, but can get up and down with regularity from 50ft off the green? Out of rough?? That’s rather extraordinary.
Large chris
Mar 19, 2015 at 6:10 pm
Intuitively I’ve always thought GIR was a very good indicator of scoring average, but to state the obvious GIR isn’t just the approach shot but also requires a decent drive, certainly a drive that doesn’t find a hazard or goes OB. So GIR is a fairly comprehensive test of the long game.