TPC Four Seasons Resort-Las Colinas has a reputation as a driving mecca. Long-hitters are strongly favored, but inaccuracy is punished with a tree-lined landscape and a large number of water hazards.

Surprise, surprise: I didn’t take these assumptions for granted! I actually expanded my usual analysis by including the top-15 and ties at each of the last five Byron Nelsons, along with golfers who were near the top through three days before a final-round implosion.

And, yeah, not sure I agree with that profile. OK, the long-hitter advantage is indeed quite robust, but approach play came out most important in my sample. And while driving joined in a close second, accuracy is overrated at TPC Four Seasons. Precision off the tee at the Nelson is about as potent as it is at the Wells Fargo (i.e. not useless, but semi-marginal). Let me also note that the course will likely play wet this week, meaning balls will stick and make fairways easier to hit.

In the sample, approach play and driving finished well ahead of short game and putting (despite undulated greens) in facilitating high finishes. So you’ll want to lean toward excellent ball-strikers this week.

It doesn’t really matter how low or high your ball flight is here, just know that this course usually faces some wind (this is Texas!) and there are forecasts for some bigger gusts this week. So I would urge on the side of good wind players.

Poulter’s showing at Colonial wasn’t a surprise if you kept track of his excellent form. I’m cooling on him just for this one week, though, because a long-hitting ball-striker’s track like this is the opposite of the Englishman’s game.

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Cash-strapped Pick to take a chance on

• Charlie Beljan — $6,200

Beljan’s had some ghastly performances of late, but fits the mold of this course with his long-hitting and outstanding approach play. He also finished T11 at this course last year.

Alternate Six-Man Roster (Last Week: 318.5 points, 31,056th of 38,315)

• Brandt Snedeker — $10,000
• Justin Thomas — $9,200
• Ryan Palmer — $9,200
• Brooks Koepka — $7,700
• Luke Guthrie — $6,800
• D.A. Points — $6,800

I’ll go after Sneds considering he appeared to uncover something at Colonial.

Like everyone, I was on the Thomas train from the start of the year, although I have not picked him in fantasy enough as he’s continued to roll along. Palmer really torched me last week when he finished bogey-double and missed the cut at a course WHERE HE’S A MEMBER! But his record at TPC Four Seasons is similarly spectacular and I’m betting on him not imploding two weeks in a row especially because I love how his game meshes with the layout. I didn’t predict a great year for Koepka and he’s proven me wrong to a degree. He was back to 100 percent at the Match Play last month and I really like the fit here for him.

I’ve been holding out on Guthrie for two weeks and I think this is the time to play. The Illinois grad loves bentgrass greens and has got his game to click again. He was 6-under with six holes to go at the Players (just like Fowler) and had serious birdie spurts, including a closing 29, at Colonial for a T27.

Points, meanwhile, has packed up on four of his past five Fridays. That one made cut was a T12 at Zurich, an event he generally plays well at. He also plays well at the Nelson, I’m taking the chance he follows his New Orleans lead.

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