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Opinion & Analysis

PGA Tour players on the rise in 2016, and those on the decline

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Before last season, I sifted through the players who were projected to rise and decline in the 2014-2015 season. With the start of the 2015-2016 season coming this week, I wanted to go through the projections for this year.

The rankings in the tables below are based out of 184 players:

ON THE RISE

In the past I have discussed what I call The 4 Cornerstones of the Game for Tour players. That is when a Tour player finishes in the top-half on Tour in the following categories:

  • Red Zone Play: Shots from 175-225 yards
  • Driving Effectiveness
  • Short Game Shots from 10-20 yards
  • Make Percentage from 5-to-15 feet

Traditionally, players who have accomplished the 4 Cornerstones for the season have excellent seasons and if they did not earn a victory, are often right in line to win in the near future. I recommend that any player try to accomplish the 4 Cornerstones in a season. However, what I have discovered is that the players who are most susceptible to accomplishing these cornerstones in a season and struggle the next season are the shorter hitters on Tour. So, I added a fifth cornerstone: Ball Speed. And last season, the 12 players who accomplished all five cornerstones had median earnings of nearly $4.4 million. So, shall we begin?

Kevin Chappell

KevinChappell

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Two seasons ago, I would have considered Chappell a top-5 ball striker in the world, and he started to regain his form toward the end of this season. He was a notoriously poor putter who improved to 61st in Putts Gained after using AimPoint’s green-reading system. He’s starting to play the Par-5’s better (49th in Par-5 Scoring Avg.) and increased his club speed to 118.6 mph with the driver. I think he has the potential to be like David Duval when Duval finally got his first Tour victory, and then became almost unstoppable during that incredible run he had afterward.

Ryan Palmer

RyanPalmer

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Palmer ranked 40th in Actual Scoring Average, but ranked 15th in Adjusted Scoring Average. He was also a member of the 5 Cornerstone Club. Typically, Palmer has been a long hitter who drives the ball effectively and putts well. He is a bit wild off the tee, however, which gives me a little trepidation in selecting him as one of the Tour players on the rise. His wild driving can hurt him on shots from 150-225 yards, where Tour players can gain a great advantage by simply keeping shots in the short grass. But, with his overall game and length off the tee, he could very well win on more wide open courses or courses that have non-penalizing rough like TPC Scottsdale, Golf Club of Houston and PGA West. And now he has proven that he has the all-around game to win anywhere else if he gets on a good four-day streak.

John Peterson

JohnPetersonGolf

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Peterson reminds me a bit of Billy Horschel when Horschel was first out on Tour. His rookie season wasn’t impressive either, but there were some good metrics in his game, particularly in his long approach shots and driving to make me think that Horschel had a real future out on Tour.

Peterson struggled a year ago in his initial rookie season, but regained his Tour card and managed to finish in the top-125. His performance from the Red Zone dipped this season, but he greatly improved his putting and short game play, which was the worst on Tour a year ago and is now at least mediocre. Historical data shows that players of a similar age as Peterson are likely to plateau in the short game, but regain their previous form with the ball-striking, which would equate to a very good season for the young LSU grad.

Patrick Rodgers

PatrickRodgers

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Rodgers’ numbers work well with players from the past, as his iron play is scheduled to improve as well as his putting. He’s already an elite driver of the ball that hits it very long and high. He led the Tour in hang time with the driver at 7.2 seconds. The initial adjustment for rookie Tour players usually comes from iron play and putting, so if a Tour player can drive the ball effectively, that’s a positive sign that they can make the adjustments with their iron play. And with experience, typically the putting starts to improve.

Keegan Bradley

KeeganBradley

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It’s difficult to claim that a high-profile name like Bradley is “on the rise,” but he has not won a Tour event in two seasons and he finished a mediocre 65th on the Money List this season.

However, he has some excellent strong points to build on like being a member of the 5 Cornerstone Club, despite him having an atrocious start to the season.

Below is a chart showing Bradley’s short game performance by event. Anything greater than 0 percent is better than the average and anything below 0 percent is worse than the average.

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Bradley’s Short Game performance did not start to turn around until the Zurich Classic, and he was able to sustain it throughout the rest of the season. In the meantime, Bradley started to finally improve from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards), as well as on shots from 75-175 yards have been his weakness over his career. I can see Bradley having a monster season. He’s reached the 5 Cornerstones, has improved from the Yellow Zone and it sure to be motivated in this Ryder Cup year.

ON THE DECLINE

Matt Every

MattEvery

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In the 2014-2015 season, 75 percent of Every’s earnings came from his victory at Bay Hill. After that, he only made 12 of his 25 cuts. It was part of a downward spiral that started to take place in the second half of the 2013-2014 season. He finished the season 182nd in Adjusted Scoring Average.

Every was a decent driver of the ball, but his specialty was his iron play. He started to become an elite putter in the 2013-2014 season, and with his iron play he made for an excellent competitor. His driving started to spiral out of control and now his iron play is going with it. The good news is that he’s still young and historically the younger players have been able turn things around the quickest. If he continues at this pace though, I can’t see him winning again at Bay Hill and it will be a long season.

Padraig Harrington

PadraigHarringotn

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Many were proclaiming that Harrington was back after his win at the Honda Classic. However, his driving was still abysmal as he ranked 110 out of 124 measured golfers in Driving Effectiveness at that event. Where he excelled at PGA National was where it counted most: shots from 175-200 yards. That was the approach-shot range that had the greatest deviation in results, and the average shot from that distance was hit to 37 feet. Harrington hit his shots from that distance to 17 feet, 20 feet closer to the cup than the average player in the field.

After that, Harrington did little of anything and finished 172nd in Adjusted Scoring Average. He didn’t strike the ball well and putted poorly (162nd in Putts Gained). I just don’t expect much from him this season.

Jimmy Walker

JimmyWalker

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It’s hard to bet against Walker because he hits the ball a long ways and is an elite putter. There is a strong correlation between distance and the average length of a birdie putt when the player finds the green in regulation. That’s why distance off the tee generally allows a golfer to putt worse and still be successful; longer players are more likely to have shorter birdie putts that are more makeable, so they can be a less-skilled putter and still get the ball in the hole more quickly. So when we take a long hitter like Walker and combine that with his elite putting he is likely to be successful year-after-year.

Walker has never been a great driver of the ball, but is usually a pretty good iron player. His driving got off to a nice start, but then dropped off dramatically (along with his iron play) as the year went along.

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What concerns me more about Walker’s performance is that he was only decent in Par-4 Scoring Average (81st) and mediocre in Bogey Rate (120th). Those are the two big scoring metrics that factor in most to Total Adjusted Scoring Average. He generally dominates the West Coast because he plays well on courses where the hit fairway percentage is low, and he putts extremely well on Poa Annua type surfaces. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a win early on, but I don’t see him being nearly as successful as he has been for the past two seasons.

Hunter Mahan

HunterMahan

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Mahan caught fire early on and then in the playoffs, but it was not enough for him to make the Tour Championship. I have been predicting a downward slide for Mahan for the past two seasons and I still project that downward slide. In the past, his biggest issue has been his iron play, particularly from the Red Zone. That has not progressed and now we are seeing a sizable regression in his Driving, as he used to be one of the best drivers of the ball on Tour. His Purse Size Per Event should get smaller, and at this rate he is more likely to earn a number in line with this Adjusted Scoring Average ranking.

Sean O’Hair

SeanOhair

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O’Hair had a fine comeback season, but it was a bit of smoke and mirrors as he finished 98th in Adjusted Scoring Average. He still continues to struggle with his ball striking, but made up for it with his finest season around and on the greens. He has been a poor putter and short game player throughout his career, and the numbers give him slim odds of sustaining that improvement. Meanwhile, he was one of the 10-worst players from the ever important Red Zone last season. His club speed has also dropped from 116.8 mph two seasons ago.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Eric

    Oct 12, 2015 at 1:11 pm

    How is Keegan Bradley on the rise when he hasn’t won a tournament in three years? He’ll continue to struggle because of the anchored putter ban. He was 126th in strokes gained and 124th in putting average. By the way (don’t know if you’re a proponent of the anchor ban) but he was 47th last year with the long putter. You also have John Peterson and Kevin Chappell on there, neither of which have actually won on tour. Peterson only has two career top 10’s (1 coming at U.S. Open in 2012) and Chappell has only 10 career top 10’s after gaining full time status 5 years ago???

    • Richie Hunt

      Oct 12, 2015 at 1:35 pm

      Eric —

      These are projections based on certain metrics and going on past history of players that have had ‘breakout years’ or sudden ‘dropoff years.’ I see Keegan on the rise because his metrics and age match right up with those that have had big seasons on Tour in the past. The same with Chappell and Peterson.

      • Track Man

        Oct 13, 2015 at 4:52 pm

        a yes “Metrics”

        • Ben

          Oct 17, 2015 at 3:01 am

          He quantified his predictions with numbers, I fail to see what’s wrong with that.

          Thanks Rich for another well-written article, it’s nice to see stuff backed up with cold, hard data these days.

  2. Connor

    Oct 12, 2015 at 12:06 pm

    good stats. nitpicking…peterson’s a texan and played collegiately at lsu

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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