Opinion & Analysis
Value bets and steals at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
The PGA Tour’s 2015-2016 season continues this week at the 2015 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, except big prize winnings from this week’s DraftKings fantasy contest; those go with you.
In this week’s contest, $200,000 is on the line with $50,000 allotted to the winner. Don’t miss out on the chance to get in the action, especially since I’m here to help with my “value bets and steals” for this week’s event.
Click here to enter the $200K contest!
The Course
TPC Summerlin measures 7,233 yards in length, plays to a tournament par of 71, and serves as the permanent home to the PGA Tour stop in Southern Nevada. The golf course was designed by Bobby Weed and opened in 1991. Past champions include Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Tiger Woods and Davis Love III.
The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open is the second event for the 2015-2016 season on the PGA Tour and the scheduled field includes: Rickie Fowler, Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner and Brooks Koepka among other big names.
Smylie Kaufman ($6,200)
2014-2015 Web.com Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 269 (3rd)
- Ball-Striking: 136 (T74)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 49.09% (12th)
- Total Driving: 112 (T37)
- Putting Average: 1.706 (5th)
Kaufman started his PGA Tour career last week in Napa Valley at the Frys.com Open with a T10 after a final round 68. Having qualified for the 2015-2016 season through his play on last season’s Web.com Tour, Kaufman is a strong all-around player, but particularly capable, at least statistically, on the putting greens.
Similar to many of the younger players now competing week-in and week-out on the PGA Tour, Kaufman appears ready to compete whenever he tees it up at this level. While the field in Las Vegas is certainly capable with the likes of Fowler et al., there is no reason Kaufman cannot walk away with his first PGA Tour victory. And at $6,200, he is worthy of consideration in your lineup this week.
Jim Herman ($6,400)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 653 (67th)
- Ball-Striking: 11 (3rd)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 43.27% (69th)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.301 (T52)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: -0.029 (117th)
Herman finished 74th last season in the FedExCup rankings, earned more than $1 million, and posted eight top-25 finishes in 18 events. Unlikely to be a household name, Herman proved over the course of last season that he is a consistent ball-striker who struggled on PGA Tour greens. He did not play last week in Napa Valley and last teed it up on the PGA Tour at the Deutsche Bank Championship back in September.
If Herman is able to find his putting stroke this week in Las Vegas, then he could not only find himself high on the leaderboard on Sunday, but contending for his first PGA Tour victory. Herman posted a T18 last year. It may be a matter of shaking off the rust, but if you are seemingly strapped for cash and in need of a cheap addition with upside consider Herman.
Roberto Castro ($6,500)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 849 (129th)
- Ball-Striking: 218 (T110)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 42.67% (84th)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.578 (37th)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: -0.728 (178th)
Similar to Herman, Castro warrants consideration, given his ability off the tee, though at least in terms of last season, it did not manifest itself into particularly strong ball-striking numbers. Admittedly, the last two seasons on the PGA Tour have been less than stellar for Castro, but in 2013, he posted 13 top-25 finishes and made more than $2 million in earnings finishing 21st in the FedExCup.
Castro started his PGA Tour season last week at the Frys.com Open with a T69 finish and hit 72.22 percent of the greens in regulation, which was almost 5 percent above average amongst the field. Castro’s putting difficulties are documented, but TPC Summerlin has a history of unlikely winners. An uncharacteristically strong week putting for Castro would not only alter his current status on the PGA Tour, but change his career. For $6,500, Castro is worth a look to round-out your lineup.
Patton Kizzire ($7,600)
2014-2015 Web.com Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 264 (2nd)
- Ball-Striking: 59 (T16)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 51.90% (4th)
- Total Driving: 121 (T51)
- Putting Average: 1.694 (1st)
Kizzire skipped the Frys.com Open in favor of getting married and will begin his PGA Tour career this week in Las Vegas. Between his strong all-around golf game, which by all accounts appears PGA Tour ready, to his stellar putting, Kizzire (like his counterpart, Smylie Kaufman) is prepared to compete from day one.
During last season’s Web.com Tour, Kizzire posted two wins, two second-place finishes, one third-place finish, and 14 top-25 finishes in 23 events. He made more than $500,000 in earnings and finished No. 1 in that same category. Be ready to see Kizzire’s name on the leaderboard this week, despite not playing in Napa Valley. With his putting ability, Kizzire is a likely contender where birdies will be aplenty.
Chris Stroud ($8,400)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 766 (T-98)
- Ball-Striking: 234 (122nd)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 37.82% (155th)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.118 (89th)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: -0.174 (140th)
Stroud single-handedly earned his way on to this list based on recent play. As his numbers suggest, Stroud struggled in many aspects of the game last season on the PGA Tour. Despite little to build upon, Stroud teed it up earlier this October at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour and finished second upon posting a 16-under-par 272. Last week, Stroud competed at the Frys.com Open and posted a T10 to start the PGA Tour season.
Over the course of his career on the PGA Tour, Stroud has posted 59 top-25s in a total of 246 events and earned just more than $9 million in nine years. Expect Stroud to continue with the hot hand and threaten this week to win his first PGA Tour event. Again, Las Vegas has a history, especially in recent years, of rewarding players seeking to rejuvenate their games.
Nick Watney ($8,600)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 621 (57th)
- Ball-Striking: 119 (51st)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 44.14% (56th)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.618 (32nd)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: -0.395 (T156)
Watney’s numbers reveal just how difficult it can be to compete against the best players in the world, without a putting game that is consistent. Nevertheless, Watney finished 58th in the FedExCup rankings last season buttressed by eight top-25 finishes. One of those finishes was in Las Vegas, where Watney finished T16.
While he did not play as strong as some of his counterparts on this list, Watney made the cut last week at the Frys.com Open, and brings a game to Las Vegas seemingly ready to click. Watney has earned almost $24 million in 298 starts on the PGA Tour and won five times. With a game that travels, though currently subject to the whims of his putter, Watney is a strong contender for any roster this week in Las Vegas.
Charley Hoffman ($9,300)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 559 (39th)
- Ball-Striking: 168 (85th)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 46.00% (35th)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.212 (71st)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.070 (89th)
Coming off an outstanding season on the PGA Tour in 2014-2015, which was highlighted by a win at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, a T2 at both the Humana Challenge and AT&T Byron Nelson, third place finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship, and T9 at the Masters, Hoffman is ready to challenge this week in Las Vegas. Hoffman has in the past, however, been hit or miss at TPC Summerlin missing the cut three times in the last five years, but also finishing fourth in 2013, T5 in 2006, and sixth in 2009.
It’s no secret that Hoffman would love to win in Las Vegas. Do not let his price tag be a deterrent because if there was ever a year to put your money on Hoffman, this is it. At a golf course where birdies will be the norm, Hoffman’s ability to go low at any moment may very well be the difference this year for the former UNLV Rebel.
Scott Piercy ($9,700)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 638 (63rd)
- Ball-Striking: 149 (75th)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 42.81% (81st)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.266 (60th)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.120 (103rd)
Piercy is a three-time PGA Tour winner, native of Las Vegas, and 1997 graduate of Bonanza High School. While the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open will never be mistaken for the Masters, it is an important hometown event to Piercy. He finished T7 last year and will be starting his 2015-2016 PGA Tour campaign in Las Vegas. Piercy’s ascent to the PGA Tour was truly resuscitated back in 2007 when he won the $2 million Ultimate Game played at the Wynn Las Vegas defeating fellow current PGA Tour player, Tony Finau and others.
The overall point being the city of Las Vegas is replete with history and importance in the life of Piercy and apart from a major championship, there is no event he would rather win. Healthy and ready to compete, Piercy will be primed for a run at the title. Even at $9,700, he is a worthwhile investment under the circumstances for practically any lineup.
Ryan Moore ($10,000)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 522 (33rd)
- Ball-Striking: 176 (90th)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 42.26% (93rd)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.414 (43rd)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.164 (64th)
A former winner of this same event in 2012, Moore is likely to be a popular pick this week. While Moore missed the cut last year, he started the 2015-2016 PGA Tour season off at the Frys.com Open by finishing T10, having posted 135 over the weekend. As a four-time PGA Tour winner, Moore has demonstrated the ability to win with three of those four wins coming in the last four seasons.
When Moore’s success at TPC Summerlin is coupled with a strong 2014-2015 PGA Tour campaign that yielded one win, 10 top-25 finishes, and over $2.6 million in total earnings, the stars seems aligned for yet another run at the Shriners title. Notably, Moore is seeking to defend at the CIMB Classic for a second time next week in Kuala Lumpur. One should not be surprised and might even expect to see Moore trying to peak just in time for both Las Vegas and Malaysia.
Kevin Na ($10,400)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 573 (42nd)
- Ball-Striking: 302 (T158)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 43.29% (T67)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 0.694 (28th)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.232 (T49)
Having been much maligned for a decision to hit driver off the deck in last week’s playoff at the Frys.com Open, which ultimately cost him a chance at winning, Na will assuredly be vying for the Shriners title come Sunday afternoon. Na is presently ranked 24th in the Official World Golf Rankings, earned almost $20 million over his PGA Tour career, and finished 25th in the FedExCup last season without a win. In 2011, Na won this tournament for his lone PGA Tour victory.
Na’s price tag of $10,400 is inevitably a product of his play last week in Napa Valley and history at this event. Given the field this week, and Na’s success against a similar demographic in Napa Valley all signs to point to continued low scores and a chance to win. When determining which high price PGA Tour players are worthy of a spot in your lineup, Na has earned a place in that conversation.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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