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Opinion & Analysis

5 Dark Horse Picks for the 2016 U.S. Ryder Cup Team

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With one leg left in the majors, I wanted to examine the U.S. Ryder Cup standings, again. This time, though, I wanted to look at the players that are outside the top 15 in the U.S. Ryder Cup standings that have metrics that comply with making a quality Ryder Cup participant.

Related: The Official U.S. Ryder Cup Points List

While ballstriking has a much greater influence on Tour success than short game shots around the green, historically the best Ryder Cup players have excelled around the greens. Putting is always important in terms of winning events on Tour, but it’s nearly impossible to project putting for any player. Although there are certainly players that are significantly, statistically better on certain greens grasses than others.

Where the U.S. Team has struggled the most over the years is in the foursome (alternate shot) format. The fourball (low score) format has not been much of an issue for the U.S. Team. Each format stresses different facets of the game. So given the U.S. Team’s struggles in the foursome format, this list of players are more skilled toward that format.

Charles Howell III

CH3_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Howell fits well in the fourball format because he makes a lot of birdies and plays the par-4s, par-5s and par-3s well. However, he’s been a competent driver of the ball this year and has been pretty good from the Red Zone (175-225 yards), which will be featured at this year’s venue, Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota. He tops it off with great short-game play, and this makes for a competent foursome player. Pair Howell with a good iron player, and that could make for a tough foursome team to beat.

Jimmy Walker

JW_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Walker has slumped since March, but he had a good Ryder Cup showing in 2014 and is still an excellent short-game player and good putter. He has traditionally been a much better putter and iron player. The Bogey Rate and slump concerns me, but he is a player to keep an eye out for and see if steps up his play down the stretch.

Webb Simpson

WS_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Simpson has been brilliant in virtually every part of the game, but has struggled with the transition to the non-anchored putter. That has been the main contributor to him being unable to win this year, and his high bogey rate. His putting, however, has been trending upward. Like Walker, he’s a player to watch out for to see if the putting is starting to come along. If so, he would make an excellent Ryder Cup teammate.

Kevin Streelman

KS_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Like Simpson, the only thing holding Streelman back has been his putting. His putting has trended considerably upward, however, which you can see in the chart below (the dotted line is the trend line).

KS_Strokes_Gained_Putting_2016

With better putting, Streelman becomes a more appealing fourball player, but can also drive it well, strike it well on the mid-to-long approach shots and gets up-and-down if he misses the green.

Kevin Na

KN_2016_Ryder_Cup_Metrics

Na is an unheralded player, but has the game to make for a tough Ryder Cup competitor. This season he has struggled a bit with the driver, but the counter to that in the foursome format is to stick him with a good iron player that plays well out of the rough.

Na has also typically been a much better putter than he has been this year, and could be due to hit a hot streak soon. So, the U.S. team would have a promising foursome player, as well as a player that makes a lot of birdies, which works well in the fourball format. He has also typically been an even better player on the par-5s, so like his putting, I wouldn’t be surprised if his par-5 play picks up soon as well.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Bryant

    Jul 24, 2016 at 6:19 pm

    I think that Simpson would be a complete liability to the US Squad. He has not played well in like 3 years. I would take someone like Charlie Hoffman or Bill Haas.

    • Bryant

      Jul 26, 2016 at 8:15 am

      The Americans need to grow up and play with who they paired with. Just go out and compete.

    • Marty Moose

      Jul 26, 2016 at 10:07 am

      Webb skied his 3-wood off the first tee last Ryder Cup. Not a good choice.

  2. BD57

    Jul 24, 2016 at 6:13 pm

    These comments … are a good argument for not having comments.

  3. Matt Mitchell

    Jul 24, 2016 at 12:25 pm

    Seriously!?! You are free and unrestrained to offer your opinion but this author is not granted the same freedom though he writes from a place of experience and application!?! Just baffling man! Simply astonishing that you got so butt hurt over my comment! I guess your feelings and self-congratulating opinions are all that matter!?! Good luck with the life amigo!

  4. TheInfidel

    Jul 23, 2016 at 5:12 pm

    Free tip for 2016.

    If the USA want to get beat like a drum again you need Webb and Na!

  5. Steve

    Jul 23, 2016 at 2:59 pm

    What a bad meaningless article

  6. Matthew Mitchell

    Jul 23, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    So it is just a coincidence that a player makes x number of putts within 15 feet in a given round which then contributes to the strokes gained putting statistic which is measure against all players on the same course. A coincidence is just happen stance and shows no direct intentionality or relevant skill as it relates to what is measured. A statistic is a numerical aggregate of the same occurrence, fact, outcome, etc over a given period of time. One instance may be a coincidence like the probability of you making a putt from 10 feet but these guys making a putt from 10 feet is over 40%. Why would this be a coincidence. I seriously don’t think you really know what that word means. And for the safety of us all, don’t swim in public and subject the children to this horror show of stupefaction and ignorance!

    • Matt Mitchell

      Jul 24, 2016 at 12:06 pm

      Haha seriously! Says the man who got kicked out of a public pool. Just contribute something worthwhile. Sorry I called it out but know what the words mean before you make a definitive statement about them. You made a negative comment about this article which means you have just judged your own intent of leaving a comment! I assume your original comment was to show the uselessness of this article? If that is the case then why in the world are you calling me out for you calling the author out? Grow up bro, read a book, and at least measure your comments regarding others with some modicum of self reference.

  7. Joe sixpack

    Jul 22, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    Just not very interesting.

    Make a clear point and explain it. Showing lists of rankings in various stats is pretty meaningless. Who cares if someone is 20th or 120th in “yellow zone play” if the difference between the two is a fraction of a stroke per round? You need to give context. You need to explain what matters and why.

    All this shows me is an excel table that you created for each player and then cut and pasted. Highlight the stats you think are relevant and explain why.

    Rather than throw out a few dark horse candidates, pick someone who you think is the best candidate and explain why.

    This is the kind of stuff they teach in jr. High…..

    • Richie Hunt

      Jul 22, 2016 at 7:59 pm

      I hear your point. However, much of this is difficult to quite translate between stroke play on Tour and Ryder Cup play. For instance, ‘only a half a stroke per round’ is actually a tremendous difference in a player’s season. If a player improves by a half stroke, they are going to improve roughly 45 to 70 spots on the Money List (Money is always hard to project due to different purse sizes in events and ties splitting the purse).

      Also, the subject has been a recurring article for myself on this Web site….what goes into good Ryder Cup players and what types of players are good in fourball vs. foursome formats. So at the sake of sounding redundant, we kept this one more brief.

      • Joe sixpack

        Jul 22, 2016 at 10:51 pm

        Amusing that you misquoted me. That won’t help you win arguments or seem more professional. (And your goal here is to develop a reputation as a statistician, right? A stats guy needs to be precise in his language.)

        I don’t see how any of this helps your cause. Your analysis of stroke play stats is inherently difficult to use as a predictor of match play performance in the pressure cooker of the Ryder cup, as you acknowledge. So why bother? You end up with an incoherent piece that says little and doesn’t do much to increase your stature as a statistician.

        There are other stats guys out there doing a lot better work right now. You’re going to have a tough time competing with them with this kind of stuff. Maybe I’m missing something, but I don’t know how a golf statistician can earn a living posting on a website like this. Seems to me you need some tour players to hire you to advise them. In my opinion this kind of article isn’t going to help make that happen.

        • Matthew Mitchell

          Jul 23, 2016 at 1:06 pm

          Wow, Joe Sixpack- you are kind of a d-bag! Your name suggests as much and you think far more of your position than I think you own in mental awareness to substantiate. Were you hoping that Rich provide a far deeper, more in depth article on the subject that is, by definition, subjective! They are his dark horses and they don’t have to be yours. I could tell you to go to hell and you don’t have to go though your critique here may say otherwise. Did you want him to take the stats and use them in a Bayesian prediction model for the purposesof probability calculus. Perhaps a hint of modal logic and possible world argumentation of different scenarios playing out in different possible situations that would best support the above stats WHICH HE DID EXPLAIN UNDER THE HEADER! Lets get into the weather predictions and past scenarios of when those players played in similar weather conditions. Maybe He could have dug deeper in the probabilistic permutations and calculated which player would statistically do best with other known Ryder Cup players. Were you hoping this would be peer reviewed by other golf scholars like Butch Harmon, the ghost of Bobby Jones, and every Golf Channel commentator! Next time you think of writing on this site, I want you to do two things. 1.) Don’t contribute 2.) Test and see if what you say has anything relevant at all- soon to be Joe Kegger! (Opposed to six pack- have I lost you yet). Also, rather than being an annoying troll talking about things far above your pays scale, be far more concerned with excellence in your own contributions than the lack of quality provided by others. It may serve you well. I think this may only be the 3rd time I have ever contributed on this site but I can’t leave stupid and spiteful alone.

          • Matt Mitchell

            Jul 24, 2016 at 12:17 pm

            Man, you really don’t like people making negative comments after you vomit all over the Internet. Let me put it this way, we have already established that you don’t know the definition of the words coincidence and statistic so I would be hard pressed to think you are qualified to peg a persons disposition!

  8. Clemson Sucks

    Jul 22, 2016 at 11:08 am

    If any of these 5 are on our team we are in trouble.

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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