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Why Jordan Spieth didn’t win the 2016 FedEx Cup

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It was an exciting finish to the 2016 FedEx Cup Playoffs, with Rory McIlroy emerging victorious from a three-man playoff that included Ryan Moore and Kevin Chappell. It’s hard not to root for and appreciate McIlroy. I predicted that his recently improved putting, which helped him win the second leg of these playoff, would not continue. That much I had correct; it didn’t.

Rory’s putting was the worst part of his game this week, producing a negative strokes gained (0.107) and ranking him 13th of the 29 players in the field. Rarely do we see a player win an event with a negative strokes-gained number. Well done, Rory! Let’s hope for the Team USA’s sake that he saves some of that mediocre putting for the Ryder Cup.

My prediction to win the FedEx Cup was Jordan Spieth, who missed the three-man playoff by 12 strokes (I’m also a Jets fan). As you can see below, Spieth’s average daily score was 70, while the three players who tied for the lead at 12-under par averaged 67. When I compare Spieth’s strokes-gained numbers to 12-under group, 85 percent of the difference (2.55 strokes per round) came from Spieth’s long game: driving and approach shots.

Figure_1

Everyone has an off week, but it is my personal theory that Spieth’s long game has suffered ever since he committed to hitting the ball farther. At the end of last season, he abandoned the extended, square-face follow through that featured the chicken wing left elbow for a quicker release and rotation of the club head. The result is greater club head speed and distance, but also reduced accuracy and inconsistency. I had picked Spieth largely because I felt he had worked this way through this difficult change and was seeing greater consistency in the early rounds of the playoffs. Not so in this final week.

The PGA Tour’s strokes-gained analysis shows exactly how each of the four major parts of the game contributed to the totals, but it is very difficult to drill down to the actual cause of the strokes lost or gained in the 650+ PGA Tour stats that support these specific strokes-gained numbers. At ShotByShot.com, we look at the game somewhat differently and enable our subscribers to record the specific errors that so often tell the real story. I provide relevant Tour stats to support my points below, but highlight in RED the additional data that we are able to extract from the Tour’s ShotLink data that are NOT published by the Tour.

Driving     

Figure_2

Note below that Spieth averaged 17 more yards off the tee this year at the Tour Championship than when he won last year, which is a meaningful increase. It could be the result of course conditions, but I doubt it. Note also that he was less accurate (fairways hit). Far more important than fairways hit or not is the relative severity of a golfer’s misses. Among Spieth’s missed fairways were five No-Shot Driving Errors, which are drives hit out of play that require an advancement shot to return to normal play. This was the same number as as the 12-under group combined.

Last year at the Tour Championship, Spieth had only one of these errors, which cost Tour players approximately 0.75 shots each.

Approach Shots

Figure_3

Obviously, Spieth’s approach accuracy was not nearly as good as last year. He hit one fewer GIR and was 2.5 feet farther from the hole – not a big deal at the 30+ foot distance. It is important that Spieth incurred one approach shot penalty (on the 200+ yard, island par-3). He had none of these in his 2015 win.

Short Game

Figure_4

Spieth has always been lauded for his short-game expertise, and it was evident in his 2015 victory at the Tour Championship where he ranked fifth in strokes gained: around the green and first in proximity around the green. Note that he was a very meaningful 2 feet closer to the hole than the 12-under group and his own performance. Of greater significance than the 2-foot proximity were his three errors. These were short-game shots (two chips/pitches and one sand shot) where he failed to get the ball onto the green and needed FOUR or more strokes to hole out. These three errors alone cost Jordan 2.8 strokes over what he would have scored if he simply hit the shots onto the green and 2-putted. Again, one cannot find these errors in Spieth’s Tour stats.

I will be interested to see what Jordan decides to work on in this offseason. I would wager that it will be further refining his new, longer, long game and perhaps rededicating himself to his short game. He certainly has the talent and the drive to do it and I expect him to be back on top in 2017.

For a complete strokes-gainenalysis of your game, log on to ShotByShot.com

In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. European fan

    Sep 29, 2016 at 4:41 pm

    Rory may SAVE some of his mediocre putting (that I doubt the best player in the USA will not get back to his prime in putting) BUT I really think he won’t SAVE Team USA from losing to Europe.

    Anyway good luck America!

  2. Robert

    Sep 29, 2016 at 11:42 am

    Great article Peter. I love analyzing numbers because it tells the whole story with facts and not assumptions.

  3. Topic_Monitor

    Sep 29, 2016 at 11:14 am

    Please refrain from using any vulgar language

  4. Jimmy Banks

    Sep 29, 2016 at 1:44 am

    time to ban MSmizzle…enough already.

  5. tom-tom

    Sep 29, 2016 at 12:48 am

    280 yrds straight down the fairway day in and day out will beat 320 yrds avg with 50% in the rough!
    J.S. short game and putting would have statistically made him a better defender of the FedEx cup and possibly added two more wins this season. IMO.

  6. Jim

    Sep 28, 2016 at 4:56 pm

    Because he’s using & being fit for crappy driver(s). Wake up Jordan. Get the Driver off the gear contract and there are a dozen better heads to choose from. Right shaft in a 10° bonded head & he’ll be fine

  7. golfraven

    Sep 28, 2016 at 3:56 pm

    Jordan lost it due his attitude and Rory won just because of it. Jordan was likely counting all the cash he could win while Rory just got out there and grabbed it. Some luck involved but there were some moments of genius as well. Rory had to put three times to close it off, he surely will do better this week.

  8. desmond

    Sep 28, 2016 at 12:47 pm

    I’m waiting on all the instructors on youtube to analyze Jordan’s swing … probably already up for months, years, but need last week’s critique. He can scramble around a golf course almost like no other, but it would be great if he did not need to so often — equipment? swing?

  9. dapadre

    Sep 28, 2016 at 11:00 am

    If RORS gets to be an even decent ‘constant’ putter, I mean like a B, B+ putter, the rest can simply forget it. From tee to green NO ONE matches him, NO ONE, once on the green is his crutch. It surprises me actually how well he has done with with putting. Thats what made Tiger unbeatable he had the long game, the godly short game and he could do anything with the flatstick. If Rors gets there, hell will break loose.

    • matzi

      Sep 28, 2016 at 11:09 am

      Well couldn’t you say the same about Adam Scott? Every week he’s like leading in tee to green. Just never been a great putter.

    • Jackson Galaxy

      Sep 28, 2016 at 4:18 pm

      Same thing applies to DJ and Bubba. It’s easier said than done.

  10. Greg V

    Sep 28, 2016 at 9:34 am

    Jordan working on the chicken wing? I don’t see a change.

    Sometimes you just got to dance with the one that brought you.

  11. desmond

    Sep 28, 2016 at 9:16 am

    Still, Rory’s SG putting for the week was better than his season -.107 v -.207. It was not terrible.

    In your column last week, I took Rory, you took Spieth. It happens. Perhaps Jordan needs a new Driver and evolve his stroke a bit more — too many two way misses this year.

    • Peter

      Sep 28, 2016 at 10:03 am

      Good call Desmond! I hope you had some $ on it – Thankfully, I did NOT.
      You are also right about the 2 way misses.

      • desmond

        Sep 28, 2016 at 12:44 pm

        Blind squirrel effect – I’m not good at picking. lol.

  12. Matt

    Sep 28, 2016 at 9:07 am

    Doesn’t matter what he works on. the real question is does Rory continue to work on putting becuase if he gets “good” at that no one has a chance.

  13. EJ

    Sep 28, 2016 at 9:04 am

    Jordan is an average to above average ball striker, and a streaky insanely hot putter. Once the putter goes cold ( for him) it shows his weakness. Kind of like a guard shoots 3. When on, they are deadly. When off then are just an average player.

  14. cgasucks

    Sep 28, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Why can’t guys like Spieth be totally content with their swing that gave them so much success only to change it just to approach the green with a shorter club? As a Canadian, Mike Weir is Canada’s version of Spieth, accurate, with a great short game but not the longest on tour. He changed his swing for a few extra yards and look where he is now.

    • cody

      Sep 28, 2016 at 9:03 am

      weir dropped off due to a neck injury. it is well documented.

      • Ian

        Sep 28, 2016 at 9:38 am

        from swinging too hard.

      • cgasucks

        Sep 28, 2016 at 10:46 am

        Yeah..but he changed instructors a few times (and even dabbled in Stack and Tilt). Physically he’s fine now but I don’t see him making any top 10s or making any President’s Cups teams lately…

    • Peter

      Sep 28, 2016 at 10:08 am

      There are so many stories of how the lure of more distance has ruined a successful player. After Ian Baker-Finch won the British Open he tried to get more distance and totally lost his game.

  15. AJ

    Sep 28, 2016 at 8:21 am

    “I will be interested to see what Jordan decides to work on in this offseason. I would wager that it will be further refining his new, longer, long game and perhaps rededicating himself to his short game.”

    So work on his long and short game… not much else to work on is there? LOL

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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