Opinion & Analysis
The Numbers Behind Rickie Fowler’s Improvement

Two years ago, fan favorite Rickie Fowler took what many felt was a leap into superstardom with his win at The Players Championship. Since then, Fowler has continued his success and was in contention at the Masters this April. Many analysts and fans feel that Fowler is on pace to have the best season of his career and perhaps secure his first championship victory.
The notion that this could be Fowler’s best season has some merit, as he is currently No. 1 in Adjusted Scoring Average on the PGA Tour. Many (including Fowler himself) have credited his shorter-length driver shaft as a key part of his success. In this article, I’m going to examine the data and see what Fowler’s strengths have been this year compared to his previous seasons on the PGA Tour.
Scoring
There are two big factors that are immediately noticeable in Fowler’s game in 2017:
- Fowler is playing the par-4’s the best he has ever played them.
- His Bogey Rate is the lowest it has ever been.
When it comes to scoring metrics, Par-4 Scoring Average and Bogey Rates strongly correlate to success on the PGA Tour. Par-4’s are critical because the average Tour player plays roughly eleven par-4’s per round. I also believe that a player’s performance on par-4’s gives a better indication of their all around game, as it requires a driver (which par-3’s do not). In par-5 performance, sheer power off the tee plays a major role. Par-4’s, on the other hand, require distance and accuracy off the tee, quality approach shots and strong putting — along with being able to get up and down when the player misses the green.
In terms of Bogey Rate, it correlates to success on the PGA Tour more than birdie rate. My conclusion is that bogey rate also includes double bogeys, which are killers to good rounds. Furthermore, not only does avoiding bogey mean being able to get up and down when you miss a green, but one of the best ways to avoid bogeys is to hit an approach shot so close to the hole that three putts are unlikely. If putts are not falling, at least the golfer is coming away with a par.
From a scoring perspective, these are two improvements that Fowler needed to make in order to jump into a discussion about the top-3 golfers in the world.
Driving
While much of the discussion about Fowler’s improvement revolves around his driving and shortening the length of the driver shaft to 43.5 inches, he was actually a better driver of the ball last season than he is so far this year. The reality is that Fowler has been a good driver of the ball in his career and any improvement is likely to be minute.
- Related: Rickie Fowler WITB 2017
Putting
On the putting green is where we see some marked improvement from Fowler in 2017. He has been an underrated putter over the years, but this season he has taken hit putting to the next level. He ranks 6th in Stroke-Gained Putting, 59 spots better than last year and 18 spots better than any of his previous four seasons
Short Game
Short-game performance used to be a major weakness for Fowler in his early years on Tour. He’s been excellent around the green for the previous three seasons, however, and he continues to be one of the best short game performers on the PGA Tour.
Approach Shots
Approach shots are the part Fowler’s game that has improved the most. In particular, his play from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards) and the Red Zone (175-225 yards) has improved. Those shots typically “count more” than shots from the Green Zone (75-125 yards), where he’s been excellent over the years. He’s also having the best season of his career on shots from the fairway.
All of these metrics bode very well for Fowler. His success this season is not smoke and mirrors; it has been supported by sustaining his strengths (driving, short game, Green Zone play) and making significant improvements in the weakest parts of his game (Yellow Zone play). Fowler’s game is right in line with shooting low scores and I like his chances at The Players Championship and for the rest of the season as he seeks the first major championship of his career. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets it.
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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Sam
May 15, 2017 at 4:16 pm
Can’t win them all, it’s hard to win on the tour
MRC
May 10, 2017 at 6:00 pm
Well done Richie.
Stats like these are worth reading.
Keep up the good work.
Happyday_J
May 10, 2017 at 12:42 pm
Rich, your analysis has always been very eye opening and informative and for myself has definitely opened my eyes to a different way of play, so thank you for taking your time to write the articles. Question, when you state:
“Furthermore, not only does avoiding bogey mean being able to get up and down when you miss a green, but one of the best ways to avoid bogeys is to hit an approach shot so close to the hole that three putts are unlikely. If putts are not falling, at least the golfer is coming away with a par.”
Have you found that statistically it is often more advantageous to fire at the pin to have a closer next shot even if it results in more greens than leaving yourself a longer putt by playing safely to the wider side of the green? Is there a breakeven point?
Richie Hunt
May 10, 2017 at 4:46 pm
Generally, the best golf strategy is more offensive than defensive in nature and that includes firing at pins. Of course, it depends on the situation. I have to do more research on the subject, but I tend to determine 3 different likely positions I will end up if I miss the green and then label them as:
A = good % of getting up-and-down
B = moderate % of getting up-and-down
C = poor % of getting up-and-down
I plan to avoid ‘C’ at all costs and if there’s a decent chance that aiming at the flag can result in landing in that ‘C’ zone, I avoid doing so. A lot of the time the ‘C Zone’ is a front bunker since there is a higher likelihood of the front bunker plugging.
If you’re planning a round (practice round), I would take a handful of golf balls and hit chips from those areas and see how close you hit to the hole and you determine if they are a ‘A’, ‘B’ or ‘C’ Zone. I really believe that effective practice rounds are more about understanding what’s going on around the green more than anything else.
Hope this helps.
Happyday_J
May 10, 2017 at 6:26 pm
It does. Thanks again.
larrybud
May 10, 2017 at 7:20 am
Rich, what does “driver effectiveness” mean? What’s the metric?
Richie Hunt
May 10, 2017 at 4:34 pm
Driving Effectiveness is an algorithm that I use based off the following metrics:
1. Driving Distance on All Drives
2. Hit Fairway %
3. Avg. Distance to Edge of Fwy (on tee shots that miss the fairway)
4. Hit Fairway Bunker %
5. Missed Fairway – Other %
The algorithm runs the data thru the courses that the player has played and then ‘normalizes’ the data thru 35 of the courses played on Tour (this prevents players from masking their effectiveness off the tee by only scheduling events that fits their style of driving).
It’s basically a very advanced way of calculating ‘Total Driving’, but is far more accurate in determining actual driving skill as it relates to shooting lower scores.
Matty
May 9, 2017 at 8:56 pm
I know this is unrelated to the topic.
This is your first article since the Masters, and I would like to say well-played, sir. The top-3 in this year’s Masters were on your list of 20 players.
I’ll be looking forward to reading your Masters article every year.
Richie Hunt
May 10, 2017 at 4:25 pm
Thanks for the kind words.
The Dude
May 9, 2017 at 8:43 pm
great article!!
Patricknorm
May 9, 2017 at 12:24 pm
In the final round of this year’s Masters, Fowler shot 76. In the first three rounds Rickie was a putting machine, continually making those testy clean up putts for par. That magic deserted him in round 4 which lead to his poor finish relative to his fine play in the first three rounds.
The other issue is one of confidence and I’m wondering if Fowler lost that feeling during his fourth round. I’m not disputing his putting stat, the numbers don’t lie, but under pressure, if Fowler wants to win a major he needs to putt like a 6 th ranked putter in strokes gained.
I wonder what distance in the putting metric Fowler needs to improve upon. Over to you Rich.
Richie Hunt
May 9, 2017 at 3:44 pm
The golden number at ANGC is 50.
That’s 50 GIR.
Almost all of the winners at the Masters have hit at least 50 GIR in the event. IIRC, Rickie only hit 30 GIR after the 3rd round and just wasn’t hitting the ball that well and was likely to flame out come Sunday.
God Shamgod
May 10, 2017 at 9:09 am
I’ve not seen that before, but it is very interesting. Augusta does punish you badly if you are constantly trying to get up and down. Rickie was doing a great job of getting up and down the first three days, but that means he was sinking some 5-10ft pars which is hard to sustain.
Leon
May 9, 2017 at 9:14 am
All I know is that he could not close the deal on Sunday under the heat.
Dill Pickelson
May 10, 2017 at 2:25 am
you don’t know much, then